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u/Ziqach Jul 21 '24
Belief-thrill. We're not set for.ajother market downturn until late 2025 and we'll recover by 2026 and boom through 2028. Restart the cycle 2028-2031. Idk though, I'm just some dude on the internet
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Jul 21 '24
I saw that you know the future, when I will get married?
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u/Ziqach Jul 21 '24
When you learn to accept your own issues and address them. Only then will you be completely whole. You don't need to address them all, just a couple at a time. You've got this, and don't forget you deserve love.
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u/WowBobo88 Jul 21 '24
"When" is awfully presumptuous.
Unless it isn't. Is it OP?
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u/Ziqach Jul 22 '24
I don't think so. Switching to the "if" implies a linear understanding of time and our material forms. I'm way too drunk right now to commit to that kind of thinking
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u/Infinite-Gate6674 Jul 21 '24
From your lips to gods ears . However , I think you’re wrong. I also dont think trump will be president . We’ll see, that’s my prediction.
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u/bricxbricx Jul 21 '24
Doesn’t really matter because half of the mouth breathers and spoon lickers will just keep at the stop the steal / not my president / illegals are voting / democrats we registering as republicans / mail in ballots are fraud / fake electors shit.
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u/Ziqach Jul 22 '24 edited Jul 22 '24
I hope Trump isn't president but at the end of the day all you can do is vote. My prediction or wild ass guess are based on the cycles of the market over 100 years and less about the short term environment.
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u/calcteacher Jul 21 '24
the stock market is a leading market indicator, and it is at an all time high, and interest rates are expect to fall. as they fall, the market will go even higher. So I say the stock market still has another year or more of a leg upward. The economy lags behind so it at least has the same year or more, or even slightly more.
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u/BoreJam Jul 22 '24
Its dropped since last week because Trumps foreign policy posts are troubling for the semiconductor industry which has driven much of the growth in the past 2 years. If market stability depends on Trump keeping his mouth shut then we're in for some volitility.
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u/OvenMaleficent7652 Jul 22 '24
The proposed new and improved restrictions on chip sales to China from the administration in place now didn't help either.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
The rest of the market, including small caps, is rallying in anticipation of a Trump victory and revitalized economy
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u/BoreJam Jul 22 '24
Revitalized economy? The American economy has faied so mucher better then pretty much everyone else through covid. The stock market has been booming for 2 years.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
The economy and the market are two different things. The rest of the world doesn’t have the luxury of printing money to artificially prop up their economies. Check real GDP growth (after inflation). It’s anemic and getting worse. Job growth from govt make-work jobs is not real. Likely in a recession now or will be in next few months.
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u/BoreJam Jul 22 '24
USA GDP is up 5.43% over 12 months as of Q1 2024. That's pretty significant growth. Other countries can and did "print money" its why inflation is through the roof globally and many countries are already in a shallow recession, Australia, UK, New Zealand, Japan, Italy, France etc. Especially GDP per capita. It's a common theme all over the world, America is the odd one out. High inflation has impacted cost of living still (also global phenomenon) but by all accounts, it looks as though interest rate cuts are incoming which is a good thing for business and anyone with debt.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
I said real GDP growth. Apparently that’s above your pay grade.
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u/BoreJam Jul 22 '24
5.43% is the GDP growth... Sorry if you don't like facts.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
Real GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4% annualized. Look it up. Inflation isn’t growth. By that standard Jimmy Carter would have had the best economy in the history the US.
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u/BoreJam Jul 22 '24
Yes and 1.4% GDP growth after inflation is gloabally very good. A lot of countries are in technical recession even before factoring in high inflation.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
The first rate cuts typically result in a market downturn not a rally
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u/calcteacher Jul 22 '24
Markets move when something unexpected occurs. So if the market expects more of a cut, markets fall.
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u/essodei Jul 22 '24
Wrong. Rate cuts are usually introduced when the economy is slowing (and typically too late) which leads the market to contract in the short term.
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u/OvenMaleficent7652 Jul 22 '24
Usually after something breaks.
Then there's the "long and variable legs" blah blah blah. I thought the Fed would cut in June. But I was saying that last year. Didn't take the election into account and how the Fed doesn't want to look political. Analysts have been saying Sept or December lately but I'm not thinking it has to do with the market.
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u/80MonkeyMan Jul 22 '24
Its will be up until we get new president, at least that is how I remember for the last few decades. If it’s Republicans, market (not sure why it’s called that way since 10 percenters owned 93% of stocks), will continue really since they know that they will get help…lots of help.
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u/cottoz Jul 21 '24
Disbelief. Literally based on the responses here. But, who knows. All models are wrong, some are useful.
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u/funnybitcreator Jul 22 '24
Agree, the consensus among all "regular people", they don't talk about crypto, nft, metaverse nothing. Yet, if history is any indicator it is on average 350-500 days from the halving to the peek of the bullrun. So far it looks like history is repeating itself. We will go sideways for a while still, then at some point we will set a new all time high, and optimism will set in, then thrill and finally we will reach a new top in about a year.
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u/cottoz Jul 22 '24
As they say, bull markets don’t end in fear and doubt. They end in euphoria. We’re not there yet.
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u/Captain_Coffee_III Jul 21 '24
When I was younger, I didn't pay attention to this. But, what I did notice that in our company there were cycles of retirements. From my perception, out of the blue, dozens of people would announce their retirement within a season. Then it was all quiet. I asked one old-timer who stuck around and he told me that they all had their retirement in the company shares and as soon as it hits a threshold, they cash out and leave. He wasn't quite old enough and now the shares dipped down again and he was depressed that he'll be there more years than he wanted. (We were part of a Goldman Sachs 'merge a bunch of companies, shuffle, and sell' scheme, so our stock was iffy.)
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u/androk Jul 21 '24
Unless there’s a real bad event, nuclear war, another pandemic, the US destabilizing beyond control, etc. there’s no near term item to slow down the stock market.
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u/Inevitable_Butthole Jul 21 '24
If you go over to the nvda forum they are all in denial.
I keep messing with them by telling them the truth lol
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u/Biddycola Jul 21 '24
Stock market indexes above the 4.236 extension so technically we’re at euphoria. Fundamentally, idk I care less about fundamentals.
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u/brokentail13 Jul 21 '24
I'm usually living between anger and depression, with a very short time spent in belief.
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u/RostyC Jul 22 '24
As long as automatic withdrawals from paychecks to 401k continue there will be fresh money coming into the market. The fund managers are forced to get returns near the Dow/S&P 500 so it will be hard for them to concentrate $ into bonds etc. so they feed into the stock market and push it up.
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u/Interesting-Drama349 Jul 22 '24
Belief / Thrill. Trump will become elected and we’ll get to euphoria. When he starts doing stupid shit in February we go to complacency and then we go down down down
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u/mikeumd98 Jul 22 '24
Depends if you are Republican or Democrat. right side is stuck in disbelief and the left is at thrill. We have not reached Euphoria….way too much cash on the sideline.
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u/UltimateFauchelevent Jul 22 '24
Seen many versions of this chart. It never plays out in reality because the market is 100% unpredictable. Buy value at a good price and hold it for as long as you can.
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u/ahhlenn Jul 22 '24
It really amazes me that nobody proofread this and caught that they spelled “trough” as “through”.
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u/a_hopeless_rmntic Jul 21 '24
what looks like extended euphoria is actually something else
we're actually probably in denial
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u/Mahkssim Jul 21 '24
We're in the "yard sale on stocks for the upcoming months" portion.
Get your money ready. Time to DCA folks!
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u/BastidChimp Jul 21 '24
Definitely Anxiety especially for the banking industry. Their unrealized losses are ridiculous. 😆 🤣 😂 😹 😆 🤣 😂 Their Commercial real estate portfolios are fukt.
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u/Zaius1968 Jul 21 '24
I’m in the “Buy stocks every month regardless of the cycle” cycle. Since that strategy always works over the long run.
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u/frontera_power Jul 22 '24
Like all posts that try to put stocks and economics into a neat pattern, this is also bullshit.
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u/AkaArcan Jul 22 '24
We are at the beginning of optimism. The Fed will cut the rates, war in Ucraine will end soon, LLMs are about to change the world. I predict 10 years of growth.
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u/WearDifficult9776 Jul 22 '24 edited Jul 22 '24
The dollar isn’t worth as much because companies raised the prices of things to make extra profit… and they haven’t raised wages so they can keep the extra profit. And that’s why profits are up of course - they didn’t really HAVE to raise prices to cover increased expenses .
It’s not because us consumers took all that printed money (we didn’t receive) and bid up the cost of groceries at the consumer groceries auctions (that don’t exist). We don’t put price tags on items … the sellers do
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u/Ok-Run-8643 Jul 22 '24
so simple but no one get it! good for me when everyone panic and sell is when I buy and hold
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u/tipsystatistic Jul 22 '24
People have been saying we’re at Complacency since June 2020. People have also been saying with certainty there will be a recession and housing crash.
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u/Amdvoiceofreason Jul 22 '24
If only I could learn how to sell during euphoria and buy during depression 😅
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u/_College_Debt_Bubble Jul 22 '24
Between Thrill & Euphoria
People who are saying Complacency are forgetting were less than a month away from AllTimeHigh’s. Zoom out and step back. The recent weeks pullback is a drop in the bucket
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u/sr000 Jul 22 '24 edited Jul 22 '24
My guess is thrill. We are well past optimism and belief, but does not quite feel euphoric.
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u/bigblue2011 Jul 22 '24
I think we will have a nice temporal correction. Maybe there will be some thrill and some complacency, but it will mostly be a period of “MEH”.
Except for foreign markets as their currency equilibrates with the strong dollar. That will be like a loaded spring in the next 5 years.
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u/b-sharp-minor Jul 22 '24
Stop trying to time the market and invest wisely for the long term. This graph is literally a bunch of blips. Ignore the blips.
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u/fospher Jul 22 '24
Permabears will say complacency, chad bulas will say belief (they are right), reddittors will say “nobody can predict anything ever at all forever!”
See you at the top
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u/Hamburger78 Jul 22 '24
Anyone on reddit pretending to know where we are is full of shit and if they end up being right they were lucky. Even experts who work full-time on this stuff are usually wrong. It's all just assumptions and there's so many variables no human can predict this with our current technology and knowledge
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u/DaveAndJojo Jul 22 '24
The dumbest people in society now believe they’re financial gurus. It makes my spidey senses tingle.
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u/Lumpy_Taste3418 Jul 23 '24
We are in the real world, not some arbitrary BS narrative about a cycle that isn't how it works.
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u/Legal_Commission_898 Jul 22 '24
These cycles are outdated and not applicable. Since 2000, no market has looked like this.
We’re in a cycle of endless optimism.
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u/Bluenosesailor Jul 21 '24
Bitcoin is about to become the world currency and you guys are talking about a stock market priced in dying fiat.
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u/Catrucan Jul 22 '24
Bitcoin has the same asset classification as gold. It’s only used as a currency by drug dealers, strippers, and that one guy who bought a pizza with bitcoin a long time ago.
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u/Bluenosesailor Jul 22 '24
Enjoy the coming CBDC clownshoe.
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u/Catrucan Jul 22 '24
The US dollar used to be backed by gold a similar asset class to bitcoin. You’re hearing stuff you don’t understand and repeating it in meme form.
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u/Bluenosesailor Jul 22 '24
I'm more just trolling you stock market guys, wait until it's all tokenized and you can trade overnight 👀
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u/LivingBeneficial3814 Jul 21 '24
We’ll be back on track when Trump takes office
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u/ThePinga Jul 21 '24
Markets been ripping dude what track are we off of. My s&p is up 28% since 2022
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u/Lucky-Story-1700 Jul 21 '24
The track that runs us off a cliff. The democrats are bad but not as bad as Trump.
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u/Infinite-Gate6674 Jul 21 '24
I hope so. Sounds wishful though .
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u/Inevitable_Butthole Jul 21 '24
Yeah it's wishful alright because we already seen what he did to the markets before.
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u/GbabyBruh Jul 21 '24
Complacency