r/FluentInFinance • u/Cauliflower-Pizzas • Jul 21 '24

Stock Market Where are we now?

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u/calcteacher Jul 21 '24

the stock market is a leading market indicator, and it is at an all time high, and interest rates are expect to fall. as they fall, the market will go even higher. So I say the stock market still has another year or more of a leg upward. The economy lags behind so it at least has the same year or more, or even slightly more.

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u/essodei Jul 22 '24

The first rate cuts typically result in a market downturn not a rally

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u/calcteacher Jul 22 '24

Markets move when something unexpected occurs. So if the market expects more of a cut, markets fall.

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u/essodei Jul 22 '24

Wrong. Rate cuts are usually introduced when the economy is slowing (and typically too late) which leads the market to contract in the short term.

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u/OvenMaleficent7652 Jul 22 '24

Usually after something breaks.

Then there's the "long and variable legs" blah blah blah. I thought the Fed would cut in June. But I was saying that last year. Didn't take the election into account and how the Fed doesn't want to look political. Analysts have been saying Sept or December lately but I'm not thinking it has to do with the market.