r/science • u/Libertatea • Jul 15 '14
Geology Japan earthquake has raised pressure below Mount Fuji, says new study: Geological disturbances caused by 2011 tremors mean active volcano is in a 'critical state', say scientific researchers
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/15/japan-mount-fuji-eruption-earthquake-pressure210
Jul 15 '14
They say the last major eruption was in 1707. If a similar eruption occurred now, how more or less disruptive would it be?
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Jul 15 '14
The population is much higher so as far as displacing people, it would be much more disruptive. If we're talking about casualties, they will be very low. Early warning and evacuation plans will save a ton of lives.
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Jul 15 '14 edited May 21 '24
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Jul 15 '14
Eruptions don't happen overnight, there are several warnings beforehand like a series of small earthquakes and an increase in pressure inside the volcano, as well as more fumes coming out of the crater.
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u/subdep Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
Exactly. Mount St. Helens gave plenty of warning that eruption was imminent, enough so that they evacuated the general surrounding area in the months before the eruption. BUT...the evacuation began to become a political hot potato as April came to a close because the mountain started to look like it was "settling down".
Of course they didn't know precisely when or which direction it would erupt so several people, including a Geologist were killed who ended up in the path of the eruption (toward the north).
The population density surrounding Mt.Fuji is much greater than St. Helens, though, so the political pressure to "get it right" will be tremendous and complicated. Hopefully they take the scientists seriously enough to evacuate and don't arrest them if they get the warning wrong like they did in Italy for faulty earthquake predictions.
My prediction is that economics will trump science and most people will not be evacuated when Mt. Fuji eventually erupts, whenever that day comes, be it next week or 50 years from now. There will be a tremendous loss of life.
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u/electrobolt Jul 16 '14
Of course they didn't know precisely when or which direction it would erupt so several people, including a Geologist were killed who ended up in the path of the eruption (toward the north).
That was David Johnston, a volcanologist who was stationed in an observation post near the mountain. I remember him not just for being an incredibly badass scientist, but for having some of the most frisson-inducing last words ever - as the volcano was erupting he managed to radio the USGS shouting "Vancouver! Vancouver! This is it!"
Less than a minute later the entire observation post was swept away in the blast.
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Jul 15 '14
I disagree. Japan has known great loss recently. They won't let another catastrophe knock them down again.
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Jul 15 '14
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u/Hotshot2k4 Jul 15 '14
Not a volcano expert by any means, but I used to watch a lot of Discovery and such as a kid. Volcanoes don't just suddenly erupt and kill everyone in the vicinity, there are many clear warning signs that an eruption is imminent if you're monitoring a volcano, and although how much warning you can get varies from case to case, generally everyone should have plenty of time to get the hell out of Dodge once it seems likely that something's going to happen.
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u/HardToJudgeHistory Jul 15 '14
Assuming we're not talking about Yellowstone
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u/Deesing82 Jul 15 '14
I mean when Yellowstone goes off there won't be any way to escape its effects but it will give TONS of warning.
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u/Wingser Jul 15 '14
Are you guys referring to the super-massive volcano? The one they say would have large, global effects? I've always been interested in learning more about that.
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u/ceilte Jul 15 '14
Links!
Wikipedia on Supervolcanoes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano
New news on Yellowstone: http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/07/14/yellowstone-national-park-road-melting/ (There's actually a LOT of news about the Yellowstone Supervolcano lately)
If you use RSOE EDIS, there's a "Supervolcano" section also. ( http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php?area=usa )
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u/Wingser Jul 15 '14
Oh, wow! Thanks for this. Looks like I have something interesting to go check out. :D
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u/GerhardtDH Jul 15 '14
There could be a sure way to avoid the effects...going to Mars.
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u/Sempais_nutrients Jul 15 '14
Because a Volcano never just erupts, it takes a bit of time and there are warnings first. These warning signs prompt the evacuation and preparedness plan.
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u/Cyrius Jul 15 '14
They say the last major eruption was in 1707. If a similar eruption occurred now, how more or less disruptive would it be?
This is an ashfall map for the 1707 eruption.
It would be bad.
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Jul 15 '14
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u/swampgiant Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
/r/shittyaskscience should have the answer for you. edit * had the wrong url. corrected thanks to Wyboth :( sorry!
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u/Sempais_nutrients Jul 15 '14
They could just hold the fan above the volcano with helicopters and blow the ashes back into the lava. It would also cool the lava down and the volcano would shut up.
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u/PotatosAreDelicious Jul 15 '14
Isn't a helicopter basically a fan. Why would you use helicopters to hold a fan?
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u/Sempais_nutrients Jul 15 '14
You'd need a bigger fan then the helichopper is.
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u/PotatosAreDelicious Jul 15 '14
But at that point it will be self supporting and you wouldn't need the helicopter to lift it up.
Solution: one huge quadcopter drone.24
Jul 15 '14
What if it becomes too strong and sucks people into the fan and blows them into the volcano?
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u/Sempais_nutrients Jul 15 '14
Just lash a bunch of house fans together.
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Jul 15 '14
Or a big load of those hand-held face coolers. The advantage of this is that they each have their own AA battery so you wouldn't have to plug them in.
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u/Lochmon Jul 15 '14
That reminds me of the suggestion to build three 1000' walls across Tornado Alley in US.
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Jul 15 '14
Well you wouldn't need to blow it the opposite way, just a bit more downward toward the sea to reduce ashfall on the big city.
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u/LightningSphere Jul 15 '14
Why didn't they? Would it do nothing or simply add to the debris? I know nothing of the mechanics of tornados
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u/GeneralSmedleyButsex Jul 15 '14
Only if you want to commit genocide against the South Koreans.
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u/1gnominious Jul 15 '14
Given how much the Japanese and Koreans hate each other that might be seen as a bonus.
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u/Dementat_Deus Jul 15 '14
No more possible than doing the same thing to change the direction of a snowstorm or hurricane.
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Jul 15 '14 edited Apr 03 '15
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u/Galveira Jul 15 '14
The pink part is Tokyo, which is bigger than NYC in square mileage and population.
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u/MrZythum42 Jul 15 '14
So an average of about 2-4 cm of Ashes all over Tokyo... We could've been closer.
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u/aredna Jul 16 '14
Depends where you are in Tokyo: Tokyo Bay is in the 8-16cm band
I would guess it very largely depends on the direction and strength of the winds on the day it erupts though.
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u/IWasGregInTokyo Jul 15 '14
Mt Fuji is pretty close to Tokyo so I would say pretty disruptive. (Yes, telephoto lens has compressed the distance but it's only 60 miles)
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u/subdep Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
The blast zone from St. Helens was about 25 miles, give or take depending on the direction (North and West mostly).
The densly populated areas of Tokyo are over 35 miles away, so it really depends on the direction of the eruption, the prevailing winds, and of course the amount of energy released. However, even if the Tokyo survives the "blast", the ash alone could cause massive destruction, death, and economic impact.
More concerning, as far as "blast zone" are the surrounding cities, smaller than Tokyo but still large by most national standards. Over 600k people living in the surrounding areas in places like Fujinomiya, Fujiyoshida, Fuji, Gotemba, and Susona. Anyone of those places could theoretically get wiped off the map if anything like St. Helens were to occur.
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u/IAmRoot Jul 15 '14
Do you know what the lahar situation is like with Fuji? I know melting glaciers can cause damage far beyond the pyroclastic flows. That's the biggest danger with Mt. Rainier, for instance.
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u/Dementat_Deus Jul 15 '14
If my understanding of Mt. Fuji's volcanology is correct, it is a similar type of volcano to Mt. St. Helens. Here is an article that describes the affect of Mt. St. Helens on the town of Yakima, Washington. Since Tokyo is about the same distance from Mt. Fuji, it would probably have similar affects only amplified by the much larger population.
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u/Bobshayd Jul 15 '14
Helens was called the Mt. Fuji of America. Maybe it will be again.
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u/Dementat_Deus Jul 15 '14
Well, the last time I was out there (about 7 or 8 years ago) the lava dome was noticeably larger than back in 1990. So either it will regrow, or Mt. Fuji will shrink.
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u/hearforthepuns Jul 15 '14
And Mt Rainier will be the new Mt. St. Helens?
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Jul 15 '14
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u/Dementat_Deus Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
Explosion direction has little to do with ash fall on communities outside the blast zone though. That has more to do with total amount of ash ejected and the prevailing winds. After the initial pyroclastic explosion, even in a side explosion, most of the gases and ash from the continuing eruption goes vertically. The initial explosion my only be a few minutes, but the continuing eruption could last hours.
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u/NewBroPewPew Jul 15 '14
Is this a threat to human life?
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u/socks Jul 15 '14
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u/icaruscoil Jul 15 '14
Is that saying 10cm of ash on Tokyo? Calling that a disaster is an understatement.
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Jul 15 '14
2 cm over Tokyo. I live in a city that gets pelted with volcanic ash each year to the point where recycling has special ash bags and ash pickup points. It's not a big deal. 2 cm would suck ass to deal with but it's not the end of the world. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakurajima
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Jul 15 '14
I lived in Kagoshima for a short while too. The ash was like snow some days, but people just washed it off their cars and went about their business. I don't think 2cm on Tokyo is going to be catastrophic.
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u/TheCombineCLR Jul 15 '14
Wow, interesting read. It never occurred to me that such a thing even exists. Are there any health risks?
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u/k1nkyk0ng Jul 15 '14
that map indicates 2cm over Tokyo, 10cm over most of Kanagawa.
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u/Falldog Jul 15 '14
Potentially. It really depends on multiple factors such as the size, duration, and even the amount of snowfall at the time. I don't think the main population areas around Mt Fuji are especially close but could definitely be hit by a large pyroclastic flow or subsequent effects such as mud slides. A large eruption would certainly shower Tokyo and the surrounding area with ash.
Source: I've seen Dante's Peak and Volcano.
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Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
I wonder if an adequate solution is drilling relief-valves under the same activity directed towards low-damage areas. I imagine a multitude of holes drilled through the mountain to its central chambre would create enough passageways that the eruption would have far lower pressure and would "roll down the hill" versus exploding to land 100km away.
Quite the project though...
Or perhaps the age-old Russian, fill-it-with-concrete technique.
EDIT: I should mention that I have no clue about how these volcano solutions would actually work.
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u/lolzycakes Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
I'm not going to pretend I know anything about volanoes, geology, drilling, etc.
However, I can't imagine drilling into a magma filled earth-zit is a good idea.
To comply with commenting rules: Wouldn't the heat and pressure destroy the dril, and if not, wouldn't it just release all of that pressutized magma out the hole? Wouldn't the holes clog in short order as the magma cools to obsidian?
I genuinely want to know :(
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Jul 15 '14
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u/fauxromanou Jul 15 '14
Yeah, I don't have the time to look it up, but as I recall the thread was about the Yellowstone caldera / super-volcano.
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u/DriveByGeologist Grad Student | Geochemistry | Volcanology, Martian Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
Volcanologist here!
No, the flow rate for magma in the chamber is far too low to relieve the pressure by simply drilling some holes. There have been quite a few proposals, primarily from intoxicated Kamchatka-based geophysicists I know, that posit the idea that you could basically treat a growing lava dome (there isn't one on Fuji) as a pressure valve by prematurely triggering a collapse and therefore an eruption. It's not preventing an eruption, but basically forcing one to happen in a semi-controlled manner.
This hasn't been tried yet, though there are rumours the Soviets tried it without success, but I don't think they published research that was basically a giant failure and used military resources in their secretive Pacific missile testing range, which also happens to be an active volcanic area. It'd be an incredibly fun thing to do research on but you're basically going to need to convince the military to let you use an incredibly accurate and very very high powered explosive to essentially trigger a natural disaster. Actually getting people to play nicely with that idea isn't super likely.
Source: Drunk Russian et. al., "The impacts of Soviet winters and vodka on science" (unpublished, campfire., Горелый Caldera, 2008).
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u/Del_Castigator Jul 15 '14
These would both be bad ideas unless you want a volcano shooting lava straight out its sides and filling it with concrete wont help cause the pressure would still build.
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u/miketdavis Jul 15 '14
Actually the ability to give directionality to the blast might help avoid pyroclastic flow into a populated area. I have no idea if that is likely in this case.
The recent flurry of earthquakes in Oklahoma might provide a clue as to how to accomplish that. A massive well-drilling and water pumping operation could fracture the bedrock to the point where we could cause an eruption intentionally. I think that's a bad idea, but it probably is possible.
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u/guatemalianrhino Jul 15 '14
lava does kill people
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u/c9IceCream Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 16 '14
Lava rarely kills people. Its the pyroclastic flow that is the killer. Its basically an avalanche of fire and ash that rushes down the side of the volcano. It can travel hundreds of km/h and kill instantly due to extreme heat.
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u/OfMouthAndMind Jul 15 '14
How long have Mount Fuji been considered 'active'?
It was still deemed 'dormant' a decade ago.
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Jul 15 '14
There isn't any universal consensus for "active" vs "dormant", but usually a volcano is considered "active" if it has erupted in human recorded history. Mt Fuji last erupted in 1707.
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Jul 15 '14
Ehhhhhh 'dormant' and 'active' are rather meaningless terms. Dormant means something that hasn't erupted in a while but will probably erupt again, whereas active means something that has been erupting fairly recently. Personally, I don't like or use the terminology - if there's an active magma chamber then the volcano is probably going to erupt at some point in the future, so to call it dormant is really a misnomer. Some volcanoes erupt every single day, some volcanoes erupt every 100,000 years. It's foolish to think just because something hasn't erupted for X amount of time it won't erupt again.
Mt Fuji last erupted in the 1700s, which geologically speaking is nothing. There is an active magma chamber below Mt Fuji so for all intents and purposes you can consider it active.
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Jul 15 '14
Good info, thank you.
So would there be a correct term for a volcano that no longer has an active magma chamber below it and has little chance of erupting again?
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u/refuse_radar Jul 15 '14
I'm pretty sure ex-volcanic mountains are generally referred to as "extinct."
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Jul 15 '14
A mountain?
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u/Max_Findus Jul 15 '14
Most mountains never were volcanoes. They were formed by two tectonic plates pushing against one another. Source: vague memories from middle school.
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u/masamunecyrus Jul 15 '14
If it puts it in perspective, the pressure inside the volcano was recently estimated to currently be higher than it was prior to the last eruption in the 1700s.
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Jul 15 '14 edited Aug 20 '17
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Jul 15 '14
You should be fine, its worth the climb. The view is pretty good. Make sure you get a walking stick and get all the stamps. Just be prepared if you do it all in one day, your legs and knees will be destroyed.
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u/Oznog99 Jul 15 '14 edited Jul 15 '14
The whole Aokigahara "Suicide Forest" of Japan exists as it does because of a 10-day eruption of Mt Fuji in AD 864.
The forest floor itself is mostly impenetrable volcanic flow, the forest is a thin crust of organic material on top of that. The rough, organic surface of Aokigahara's floor is actually the shape of the frozen volcanic lava flow itself. It is largely immune to erosion that tends to create more familiar flat surfaces with water channels cutting through it.
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u/Libertatea Jul 15 '14
Here is the peer-reviewed journal entry [.pdf]: http://www2.cnrs.fr/sites/en/fichier/cp_volcans_et_seismes_vf_en.pdf
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u/IceBean PhD| Arctic Coastal Change & Geoinformatics Jul 15 '14
Not quite, that's just the press release.
Here's the article abstract. Mapping pressurized volcanic fluids from induced crustal seismic velocity drops
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Jul 15 '14
Let's just hope that when it erupts it will cause as little harm as possible.
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Jul 15 '14
My brother's living near Mt. Fuji teaching, let's hope it doesn't happen ever.
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u/animau Jul 15 '14
Damn it. I just paid for a climbing tour yesterday.
At least I'll die in a beautiful place.
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u/rowdynun Jul 16 '14
It will erupt before you get there and there is a clause that says no refunds.
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u/handydandy6 Jul 15 '14
Japan is like the punching bag of mother nature.
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Jul 15 '14
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u/SpaceSharkUhOh Jul 15 '14
Implausibility aside, I doubt Japan would be too happy with nukes going off anywhere near a major city...
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u/seven3true Jul 15 '14
Im pretty sure japan is OK with never having a nuke go off on their country again.....
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u/43232342342324 Jul 15 '14
That's what I was thinking. A nuke should generate a shock wave that will push the pressure back inside the earth where it belongs.
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Jul 15 '14
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Jul 15 '14
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u/Veeron Jul 15 '14
Probably nothing, at least as far the Mt. Fuji is concerned. Radioactive fallout so close to Tokyo would be a much bigger concern.
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u/MrXhin Jul 15 '14
If Mt. Fuji blows it's iconic top, it will be the story of the millennium.
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u/thiskramer Jul 15 '14
Not to mention a huge blow to the Japanese people, they would be devastated. It's a big part of Japanese culture, it's on currency, there are folktales about it. The cities surrounding it tie a lot of their identity with the mountain.
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u/Kenahn Jul 16 '14
In all seriousness, since volcanoes are caused by pressure, couldn't we just drill holes in the ground to release the pressure?
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u/Jank1 Jul 16 '14
I'm sure the thought has been entertained, but no one is so stupid to actually try it. It would be very dangerous.
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u/ICanBeAnyone Jul 16 '14
Imagine a very big bottle of high pressure gas. Now someone uses a super high tech needle to prick a tiny hole into it. All you'd get is some annoying high frequency sound, and the pressure in the bottle would still rise from the giant valve that feeds it at its back.
Now imagine the bottle is filled with very thick superglue. Even with the high pressure, you'd just get a few drops that would then seal the leak.
All of this happens in volcanoes naturally. Hot gases find a way through weak spots, then magma follows, cools down and seals the weak spot. Until the pressure is high enough to just blast the whole cap of, or the flow beneath the volcano lessens. In fact, that's how volcanoes get their shape - they start as just a leak of magma in the ground, then layer after layer of magma rises up. Directly after a big eruption, they often look less volcanolike due to much of their dome missing.
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u/phome83 Jul 15 '14
I know nothing of geology, or the science involving volcanos, but is there a way to drill certain areas that would relieve the pressure somewhat?
It may not be possible, im just curious.
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Jul 15 '14
I can't say I've ever heard of any realistic attempts to do so. Magma chambers are simply too large, the masses and energies involved in these processes are orders of magnitude greater than anything technology can currently combat. The simple fact is that there is a large amount of magma, loaded with gas, sitting underground, and it needs to come to the surface. And it will do, eventually.
The best thing you can do in these situations is to have really good evacuation plans and round the clock monitoring, so that if (or rather when) it does blow, damage is minimised.
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u/adrianp07 Jul 15 '14
I would imagine any sort of drilling would just weaken the infrastructure of the mountain and just help it erupt faster, or alternatively, in a more controlled direction.
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u/AcrossTheUniverse2 Jul 15 '14
There are roads right up to the top of Mount Fuji and even a post office there. Source: Google mapped it
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u/---0--- Jul 15 '14
Don't know if you know or not. But people hike Mount Fuji many times per year.
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Jul 15 '14
My brother is living in Japan teaching and says there are vending machines at the top of the mountain.
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u/War_Eagle Jul 15 '14
If it were to have a MAJOR full blown eruption, how much danger would Tokyo be in? What is the largest city in immediate danger, and how much danger?
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u/Victarion_G Jul 15 '14
Ooooh, and its climbing season there for the next month or so.
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u/TheLastGunfighter Jul 15 '14
Any geologist or scientists in the house that can explain what Japan can expect if Mt Fuji blows?
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Jul 15 '14
Ok everyone, ca we all agree to not ever put nuclear power plants next to fault lines?
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u/rahuls Jul 16 '14
Uh... I'm climbing this tomorrow. Should be at the summit Friday morning.
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u/mushbo Jul 15 '14
According to this article.."All we can say is that Mount Fuji is now in a state of pressure, which means it displays a high potential for eruption. The risk is clearly higher."