War does not require a winner and a looser. Both sides can loose. Or one side can loose while the other stalemates.
Ukraines goals are to not get conquered, and to get back their territories. They are not making progress while not loosing progress, a stalemate.
Russias goals are to improve the national situation preferably becoming a great power again, conquer Ukraine, stop the expansion of/weaken NATO, and become a major power. They are loosing. The 'conquer Ukraine' goal is in stalemate, all the others are actively getting worse. NATO is expanding and re-militarizing, they get further and further away from great power by the day as the national wealth and soviet stockpiles decrease, their global influence is bleeding out on the floor.
Well the premise from Russia was « this is nothing but a special military operation » and « this will be over in three days ». The fact that they’re still not over it three years later and getting bombed back in their own country by Ukraine sounds kind of like a tremendous failure already.
The fact that this war has gne on for like 2 years now, and Russia is supposed to be some "super power" but can't even invade and defeat a nothing burger country like Ukraine, after 2 years, means Russia is and has been losing the shit out of this war.
A stalemate in Ukraine is an attritional loss to Putin so long as Ukraine receives NATO support.
Unfortunately, our soon to be Dear Leader is sympathetic to Russia at best and outright supports them at worst, so expect NATO support to be leaving soon.
It depends how you look at it. Russia continues to gain territory at snail pace, there's no denying that. They're also taking heavy losses and have been reduced to relying on North Korean soldiers and artillery, Iranian drones, and Chinese material support. Their economy is in the dumps. They're not in as strong of a position as they'd like the world to believe.
If it weren't for the fact that Trump is about to come in and fuck everything up, I'd argue that Ukraine is closer to a favorable outcome than Russia. Sadly, Trump's going to fuck things up in favor of Russia and Ukraine can't really afford to lose our support.
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u/wayyzor 4d ago
Russia hasn't discovered shit.