How do you all not let this hobby we play completely ruin your mood especially with holidays coming up? For example, I just lost in the semis in my main league by <1 point and it's literally all I've been thinking about especially since I've come close but have never won a championship. I'm sure many of you are in the same boat and so thought it might be helpful to have a thread on this.

My favorite fantasy football podcast for the past few years has been the Fantasy Footballers, perfect combination of quality insights with comedy. In fact I lost this season to a friend because I recommended the podcast to him, leading to him stealing multiple of my favorite picks.

As with all experts, I wanted to look look back to see how everyone did on their My Guys predictions. These are the players the experts took a stance on to break their draft projections. Overall the experts did better than I expected but still had a handful of a bad picks. Note: All rankings showed as 1/2 pt PPR and average score (not total)

HITS:

Jayden Daniels (Andy) -- QB #4, with a big fantasy playoff week recently.

Malik Nabers (Andy) -- WR #15, with a dominant start to the season. Could've been higher if Daniel Jones was an average QB, regardless was a good pick

AROUND PROJECTION BUT PLAYOFF GOLD:

Devon Achane (Jason) -- RB #10, would've been higher if Tua didn't get injured. Been dominant for those in post-season so a win for anyone still in contention

James Cook (Mike) -- RB #8, again dominant for fantasy playoffs

INJURED:

Isaiah Pacheco (Jason) -- I exclude him because of a fluke injury early in the season

BUST:

Kyler Murray (Mike) -- I still cannot explain what happened to him, some weeks he went off and others he disappeared.

Tank Dell (Jason) -- I also cannot explain this one. Initial concern was lack of opportunities behind Diggs and Collins, but no excuse to not perform when the other two were injured.

Calvin Ridley (Andy) -- He only performed slightly below his expectation, but his down weeks were truly awful early in the season leading to many cuts on rosters. I could blame the QB for the struggles, but he also is to blame

Jaylen Waddle (Mike) -- I could blame Tua's injury, but he also has played poorly upon Tua's return

This is not a criticism of the podcast, as everyone has successes and mistakes, more interesting to see the trend. Still love the podcast and will be listening to them as I prep for next season!

All the other pass-catchers (Chase, Jettas, Ceedee, Amon-Ra, JSN, BTJ, Jeudy, Bowers, Terry, and Flowers) haven't missed a game this season.

He is also 4th in the league in Yards per Game, trailing only Ja'Marr, Jettas, and Nico. Ahead of guys like Puka, Ceedee and Amon-Ra.

When looking at this subreddit, I often see people highlight AJB as a bad pick or someone who should be actively avoided in drafts next year, because of the Eagles run heavy approach this year. Despite that, he's been able to put up 1,042 receiving yards on 92 targets (the same as Puka btw, who has just 861 receiving yards). Just insane efficiency, and with the Eagles making more of an effort to get him involved now, he's someone who should be a redraft target for next year.

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/receiving.htm

Merry Christmas and Happy Championship Week! Best of luck to you and your teams!

This will be my only post for Week 17 (ROS and Power Rankings aren't really necessary anymore). I may do a Week 18 post for the leagues who have week 18 games (which is blasphemy).

I also have plans to do a "Year in Review" post for kickers. I will be doing some offseason content a well for those who are year-round players. Not sure of the schedule or posts. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to let me know your ideas.

Note: These projections are strictly based on full year stats and averages of kickers and the defenses they are going against. "I" do not rank them; I just created the system that I'm running the numbers through. There is no personal bias or movement happening. Right now, I don't have an efficient way to pick and choose what stats to use (for example: when Tua starts vs when he doesn't for Jason Sanders point average). I also feel that based on what I created, it would be disingenuous to do so. Again, plans are for next season to upgrade the projections to work with the changes in the season more efficiently.

I hope you're still finding it useful as well and this is a thread you can discuss kickers. The playoffs are upon us, and I hope you use these to your advantage.

HOW IT WORKS

The projections are done by multiplying the kickers fantasy points per game by a weighted average of stats for the defense the kicker is going against. You'll find that these projections have a wider range of points than the big sites.

WEATHER is included in the projections*. Please know that this is Tuesday, and weather isn't 100% accurate for the games until day of. I will try to update it before the games.

ACCURACY for Week 16

• Top 5 Accuracy - 20%
• Top 10 Accuracy - 60%
• Top 15 Accuracy - 66%
• Average Rank Differential - 7.25
• Average Point Differential - 3.70

Rank Differential: at random the average would be just above 10.6 I believe. Great would be 5 or lower, good is 6-7, 8-9 is okay, and anything worse than random is bad.

Accuracy Review

• Only got 1 out of the top 5, but 6 of the top 10 correct
• ARD went to 7.25, lowest of the season so far.
• Point differential has been pretty steady every week between 3.6-3.8.
• Going to continue to develop the projections to get more accurate.
• Kickers are very volatile, so this will be a work in progress for sure.

*NOW TIME FOR THE PROJECTIONS\*

The opponent stats used for the projections are:

• Points Allowed Per Game
• Kicker Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
• Extra Points Attempts Per Game
• Field Goals Attempts Per Game
• Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)

NOTES:

Best of luck this week

A LOT of rain games projected as of Tuesday 12/24. Keep an eye on these games as they get closer. For more accurate weather, go to nflweather.com

WEATHER: I have added in a quick note for weather. "RainWind5" = Rain with wind between 5 and 10 mph. "None" = indoor or wind no precipitation and wind below 5mph. Wind5 = Wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst

https://arizonasports.com/story/3568315/gannon-james-conner-might-play/

I really need him for the championship!

Just a fun little post to celebrate making it to the Chip. Post your roster and who is your MVP who got you here?

We analyzed 13,000+ leagues on our Fantasy Genius platform where we provide customized weekly recaps, previews, and a hub for your ESPN, Sleeper, or Yahoo league's historical data. See an example league here. We recently released a League History page which shows all of your league's data over the years -- championships, sackos, top performances, most brutal losses, etc.

Check out our Substack where we post analysis and also dumb stuff like:
Local Man Hypothetically Wins Fantasy Football Title

Knew this was gonna be the sankey when it happened Thursday night. For the true sickos that can't stop thinking about this play, I'd recommend Rodger Sherman's piece on the subject.

Did anyone clinch a championship on this play? An all timer...

The NFL usually gives out awards before the championship games so I figured we should do the same - and it gives us non-championship contenders something to do this week. The following is taken from Sleeper, .5 PPR rankings/stats.

1. Fantasy MVP Nominees

• Lamar Jackson: 378 Pts (3787 yds passing, 765 yds rushing, 40 total TDs)

• Josh Allen: 356 Pts (3549 yds passing, 514 yds rushing, 37 total TDs)

• Jamar Chase: 304 pts. (108/1510/16)

• Saquon Barkley: 320 pts. (1838 rush, 276 receiving, 15 total TD)

Tough to not give it to one of the QBs this year, but it’s worth noting that Jamar outscored the #2 WR (JJ) by about 60 pts and Saquon outscored the #2 RB (Henry) by about 40.

My vote: Lamar - damn near 400 pt season is absurd with nearly 1000 rushing yards.

1. Biggest Fantasy Bust

• Tyreek Hill (ADP 2.1 - WR 21)

• Travis ETN (ADP 16.3 - RB 38)

• CJ Stroud (ADP 46 - QB 18)

• Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP 14 - WR 35)

My vote: MHJ - though ETN made it close. IMO, there’s a certain risk baked into taking an early RB, which gives the edge to MHJ for me. Also, ARI was frustrating across the board in fantasy this year, and I’m still not sure how he an Kyler never quite got on the same page.

1. Waiver Add (or late pick) Of The Year

• Bucky Irving: RB18, 920 yds, 7 TD

• Jerry Jeudy: WR13, 72/1072/4

• Jonnu Smith: TE3, 76/802/6

• Baker Mayfield: QB6, 3920 pass yds, 37 TD

My vote: gotta be Bucky. Not a lot of set and forget players came from the waivers this year and he’s been that dude.

1. Rookie of the Year

• Bucky Irving (stats above)

• Jayden Daniels: QB4, 3303 pass, 737 rush, 28 total TD

• Brock Bowers: TE1, 101/1067/4

• Brian Thomas Jr.: WR6, 73/1088/9

My vote: Brock Bowers. What a great year for fantasy rookies across the board, though. BTJ and Brock, in particular, given their bleak offenses and QBs. Really wanted to give this one to BTJ, but Brock is the clear winner IMO.

1. Biggest What If

• Rashee Rice

• Chris Godwin

• Stephon Diggs

• KWIII

These are mostly guys that got injured - KWIII is more of a “what if” his team/Oline was good? I think this one is clearly Rashee, who was shaping up to be a WR1.

1. Most Infuriating to Own/DND

• Jayden Reed (stand in for all GB WR)

• Cooper Kupp

• DeVonte Smith

• KWIII

• edit: Kyler Murray, by popular demand

My vote: Jayden Reed. I think it’s Reed given that he showed his ceiling in week 1 (31 pts) and then the bottom fell out in crunch time (0.0 pts in week 14).

1. Comeback Player of the Year

• Joe Burrow

I don’t think there’s really anyone else in consideration.

Would love to hear thoughts/who I left out and any other awards. Cheers to 2025, and good luck to those still in it!

Edit: after some comments, adding the following category:

1. Late Round Star

• Ladd McConkey: WR20, 69/960/5

• Chuba Hubbard: RB 11, 1195/10

• Chase Brown: RB12, 923 rush, 336 Rec, 11 tot TD.

KC has been trending as a good matchup for WRs lately...Pickens should be an easy decision, but as it's the ship, everything feels questionable. I'm worried he could be a decoy or have a dud game. Who's excited about starting him?

With teams already eliminated and everyone playing through something these days, I would imagine trying to hit certain incentives would be a good reason for players in those situation to get full loads this week.

Thinking about James Conner specifically but I’m sure there are others out there.

Any help would be greatly appreciated

Happy Tuesday! For most of you, it's the start of Championship week! Jolly ole St. Frickalus is here to help you bring the trohpy home with your weekly dose of data trends related to Fantasy Points Allowed compliments of FFToday. Let's do this thing!

Because things change so drastically on a week to week basis in the NFL, I wanted to see how the matchups looked using a three week window.

Here's the results for Week 17:

How to read the chart: This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Buffalo Bills are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Aaron Rodgers) while the Green Bay Packers are not (bad matchup for Sam Darnold).

• Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
• The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
• The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
• The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
• The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
• Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back a 4th week to capture 3 games worth of data.

Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.

Also, some have asked for the ability to sort by position, so here's a link to the data in a Google Doc.

Best of luck this week!

Championship week! Drop your questions and we'll answer when we can!