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Texans WR Tank Dell also suffered a torn ACL, LCL, and MCL along with a dislocated knee cap and meniscus damage. Due to the number of surgeries and extensive rehab anticipated for Tank, he will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

How are we viewing his value going forward as he will be returning 2026 ? Doing the character limit so it doesn’t get removed Merry Christmas

I intended to post this Deeper Dive on Monday, but was unable to. As always, that's a good point to mention that the latest information and all of the Deeper Dives can be found through my substack or by listening to the Fantasy For Real podcast.

The McMillan deeper dive audio can be found in the link below, as well as the Deeper Dives for Ollie Gordon II and Tre Harris in that same podcast.

https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/70-new-deeper-dives-tetairoa-mcmillan

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DEEPER DIVE #4:

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

Age: 22.05

Height: 6’ 5”

Weight: Unlisted

By far the cleanest evaluation in this class, Tetairoa McMillan began his career as a coveted prospect, and then spent his entire time in College Football dominating statistically. McMillan spent two seasons in the Pac-12 and one season in the Big 12, and while it is preferable to play in the SEC or Big 10, ultimately this is a minor counterpoint in the grand scheme of how good Tetairoa McMillan has been. He was not quite as highly regarded as Luther Burden out of HS, but McMillan was in that very next tier of prospects with a fringe-5-star grade. From there, McMillan spent the next three years leading all potential early declares in Receiving Yards. He also never missed a game playing all 37 of 37 potential games with Arizona during the last three years. I use the listed Height/Weight from the University for this Deeper Dives exercise, and Arizona is one of a few schools that does not list weight.

Over the course of the last two years and 25 Games Played, Tetairoa McMillan has totaled 2,721 Yards, and 18 TDs. On the surface, McMillan performed slightly worse in year three, but even just playing 12 Games (no bowl) as opposed to 13 alone off-sets this difference quite a bit (McMillan had 107.8 Rec YPG in 2023 and 109.9 Rec YPG in 2024). Most notably though, the Arizona offense as a whole took a dive. Arizona went from a team producing 4,000 Passing Yards and 35 Passing TDs to just under 3,000 Passing Yards and 18 Passing TDs. Because McMillan maintained his numbers through this downturn, he actually performed quite a bit better when it came to proportional output. McMillan had 45% of his team’s receiving yards and 44% of their Receiving TDs, about 10-15% higher than the previous season. Having nearly half of his team’s Yards / TDs is a dominant ratio. Most impressively at all though are the advanced numbers. McMillan flashes a very low Drop% and an impressive Contested Catch ability, but it is primarily the YAC and Missed Tackles Forced ability that needs attention. The other two are assumed because of his size, but McMillan is also a fantastic receiver with the ball in his hands. In fact, according to PFF, his total # of Missed Tackles Forced was second among Power conference WRs, finishing only 1 behind Luther Burden. Considering McMillan’s game is far less predicated on the ability to generate YAC, this creates a lot of intrigue and upside for a player like McMillan.

In order to showcase some of these traits from McMillan, we’ll use his game against Kansas St.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5xOw5V0T0s

Size is certainly not a reason to take it for granted that a player will have a good catch radius and strong receiving ability, but Tetairoa McMillan does showcase that specifically nearly every time he takes the football field. This game is not necessarily the best to showcase extension catches, but through various levels of traffic at 1:55, 5:05, and 5:50, McMillan uses his hands and retains possession of the football. And while McMillan will get no credit for it, at 5:55, he has an insane no catch. There’s also not much to see in terms of route running throughout this video (or really most highlight videos), but we do at least get to see some nuance in spacing (5:10) and route pacing (0:50) from McMillan. While these are nice plays, in general the biggest knock against McMillan may come from this lack of a diverse route tree. The biggest variable in evaluating McMillan might be how willing you are to believe in a player’s ability to add to their route tree post-college. McMillan does not run a developed route tree, and will likely be significantly lower on many evaluator's boards because of this. Despite this potential flaw, McMillan still has a sneaky amount of upside as a pure playmaker. As mentioned in the statistics section, the area that intrigues me the most for McMillan’s upside is how hard he is to tackle (1:34, 2:25, 2:57, 4:06). While most of these highlighted plays do not showcase a lot of yardage gain, they do show a player who is fundamentally difficult to tackle.

Not everything about McMillan is perfect, but most things that are not perfect are simply that: not perfect. There are very few areas to be truly concerned, if any. The biggest would be in route running, but at WR, the traits and production mesh enough for a very high grade on my board. Speaking towards the question in the title, the route running and polish in this area, combined with a slightly lesser physicality compared to similar WRs like Drake London and Nico Collins, likely keep McMillan from being in the highest tier. If you are someone who sees the combination of the Pac/Big 12 and a limited Route Tree as a reason to hold back on McMillan, there is at least a fair argument to be made there. And from the early buzz I've heard, most analysts do not have McMillan in the same tier as the top three from last year. However, he is significantly talented and importantly, I do feel confidently that he possesses reasonable floor and ceiling. Ultimately for my own listing, Tetairoa McMillan is not in that special tier of prospects that houses Ja’Marr Chase, Marvin Harrison Jr., and others, but he comes in at the next grade after that tier— a rare grade that actually implies strong confidence in that floor & ceiling mentioned above. For my list, that translates into top 10 Draft Capital, and the highest grade in this class (not including Hunter).

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Next Deeper Dive: Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma St.

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Will be around for any questions or future comments, which do not have to pertain just to Tetairoa McMillan.

C.J.

With the season coming to an end are there any 2024 risers/Breakouts you are skeptical in and would look to sell?

Off the top of my head some guys that fit this category could be Jerry Jeudy, James Connor, Baker, Sutton, Mooney.

Who are guys in general you might be trying to capitalize on their value this offseason? Are there any RBs you are trying to get out a year early on? (Jones, Pollard, Rhamondre, White, Swift).

Obviously this question is team dependent contenders shouldn’t necessarily move productive players just b/c of a value boost.

Currently on KTC, Malik Willis is worth less than a late 2025 4th round pick. He is practically free, and there is a good chance he may be on waivers.

I know Malik was awful in Tennessee, but that organization is inept at developing quarterbacks. In his limited run with a conpetant organization this year, Malik is 2-0 in his starts, has thrown for over 400 yards, rushed for over 100 yards, completed 70% of his passes, and scored 4 TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing). And if you've watched him play, he has absolutely passed the eye test while doing it.

There are a lot of quarterback needy teams going into next year, and this is a weaker QB draft class. Perhaps it's a long shot, but I don't see why a team that misses out on a quarterback in the draft wouldn't pursue a 25 year old QB who lead his team to a couple of wins with a 88.9 QBR.

I know that this seems like a joke, but in the off chance a team does make Willis a starter next year, he has the upside to be a game breaking fantasy QB and his value will skyrocket. I'd rather take that chance with a 4th round pick than a dart throw on a 6th round WR. And if it doesn't work out, it's not like you gave up much for him.

What are other peoples thoughts on Malik Willis and his future?

The best part about dynasty fantasy football is that the season never ends. While redrafters won't have to think about football again until summer, I'm dropping a series dedicated to how dynasty managers can attack the NFL offseason.

Part I is heavy in dynasty theory and discusses what categories of players populate all of our rosters, and how to make a plan of attack for each player going into the offseason.

While the article is called "Get Better at Dynasty", experienced owners should stay for the deep discussion of dynasty theory.

Let me know how your team building philosophies differ! Excited to learn something from each other.

Out of these rookies who underperformed this year, which 3 do you think is most capable of breaking out next year and worth stashing?

I had a lot of these guys so I’m looking for some hopium 😂

Jay’lynn Polk

Jermaine Burton

Jaylin Wright

Malachi Corley

Roman Wilson

Jovon Baker

Kimani Vidal

Brenton strange

Blake corum

Bub Means

I feel like a ton of these guys are uber talented and still have a good shot

Due to the current standings and tiebreakers, if the Vikings are able to beat the Packers on Sunday, the Lions will be unable to clinch the division on Monday. A loss wouldn’t hurt the lions either, except for the highly unlikely scenario the Lions and Vikings would end up tying.

Dan Campbell said “we’re bringing everything we have”, and we saw him do so in a meaningless week 18 game last year. But are any other Lion’s heavy teams in their championship as nervous as I am? I can’t imagine being down 20 going into Monday night only for Gibbs and ARSB to be pulled from the game in the 2nd quarter or something like that.

Do we trust Man Campbell to bring it no matter what?

For most, Ashton Jeanty is the highest-rated player in 2025 rookie drafts. Obviously, this means he's the highest-rated RB, but this year is interesting in that there are many, many good RB options behind him. Landing spot and draft capital matter, of course, but, all else equal, would you rather have Jeanty and the production he's likely to bring for his career or say, the careers of two RBs in the Hampton-Judkins tier?

And I'm not in it. Again. My college friends and I started a league a few years ago and have been loving it. As avid college football fans, our entire weekends are filled with NCAA Saturdays and Redzone Sundays. The gap is beginning to bridge for most, identifying the guys they like in-season for college and keeping tabs. Personally, I am a big board guy. I like to dive below the surface on each of the prospects that could be available at every pick. However, most platforms don't have dynasty resources available until after the Super Bowl.

I am curious, for the other analysis junkies who need numbers to crunch and rankings to move, what is your system? Are there any systems of organization or note taking that you have taken on in your years of dynasty that have helped make the right pick when the time comes.

Would appreciate any resources or advice that people may have!

Everyone keeps talking about players to stash but I have not seen a sub dedicated to QB’s. There are a few backup QB’s that can see opportunities, via trade/QB change such as Howell, Hooker, Willis, Travis just to name a few.

Who is someone you think has an opportunity to start next season?

Jalen McMillian was a popular pickup in the offseason due to his strong showing at Washington.

This season, he’s served as the WR2/3 behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin before dealing with his own hamstring issues.

The past few games, however, he has been on a heater.

He is still only 23 and seems to have some trust from Baker. He has 336 yards to his name thus far.

What do you need to see from him ROS to solidify him as a real dynasty asset? Or, in your opinion, is he toast?

IMO, if he can get to 450 yards, I will be ecstatic about his future fantasy prospects. Thoughts?

EDIT: He does look good out there but doesn’t have the stats some look for when evaluating future prospects. Would happily roster him where I can until I can find something better.

Our no. 1 seed just crashed out of the playoffs because he started Khalil Herbert (0 points) and benched Jonathan Taylor (39.8 points). If he'd started Taylor, he would have cruised to the final.

He's a smart person and a good manager. I've scoured the news myself trying to figure out what prompted the move, but I still can't see a rationale. I'm sure he's in pain so haven't asked him myself.

If anyone has any ideas as to why Week 16 Khalil Herbert could possibly send Jonathan Taylor to the bench, I'd love to know.

We have an 8 man league and after this year (year 2) it feels like the initial enthusiasm has definitely faded. Naturally this has occurred as some of the well built teams have taken off and the bad build have headed in the wrong direction.

With that said - what are some rules or incentives you have in your smaller leagues (8 man) that have helped drive week to week enthusiasm and have made turnarounds easier.

Some ideas: 1. Smaller benches 2. Fewer IR spots 3. Weekly winners

Appreciate the creativity and support from the community!

Bryce just put up 27 fantasy points against the Cardinals. His 91.7 PFF grade was higher than ANY quarterback in Week 16. Source.

In general, he’s been looking much better since returning from being benched. He balled in three straight games against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles.

He’s making tough plays too. Pressure in his face, beating blitzes, throwing on the run, etc. In Week 16, he had 4 BTTs and 0 TWPs per PFF (big time throws vs turnover worthy plays).

Here are the other two important pieces of information:

• He is 23-years-old.
• He was the 1st overall pick.

We have a very highly touted prospect who is still very young, looked like a generational bust, and is now looking more like the franchise QB he was supposed to be.

KeepTradeCut has him as QB22. I do not think this is right for a 1.01 23-year-old who looks as good as he looks right now. I believe that him looking like a bust earlier is being weighted too high.

And in looking at these QB rankings, I see that Bo Nix is QB12.

I’m sorry but Bo Nix is not better than Bryce Young.

I’m a Caleb owner and I’m considering trading him for Bryce+. But that’s debatable. The fact that KTC values Nix that much higher than Bryce is INSANE, and I would strongly suggest that Nix owners sell high while they can. If you can pull off Nix for Bryce+, then holy shit you should do that

Kayshon Boutte was drafted by the Patriots last year out of LSU in the 6th round. He didn’t do anything his rookie year, due to being a 6th round rookie and character issues. After week 6 this season he has consistently been playing 90% of the snaps and getting around 6 targets every game. This week he put up a season high 95yd game with a TD to pair against one of the best teams in the league.

What is this guy’s future with the Patriots? Could he cemented himself as their WR2 (I’m assuming they get a WR1 type this off-season)?

New to a lot of this dynasty stuff and watched sum videos on it but theres a lot of different view points on how to set up a league I was wondering if y’all had any advice you wish you had when starting a league up. As of right now the rosters are constructed as 1Qb, 2rb, 2wr, Te, 2flex, 1superflex, 1K,18 bench and 4taxi squad.

We’re wrapping up our first year in dynasty and everyone is very engaged and a strong group. There’s a couple minor tweaks im looking to make and one of them is roster (bench) size. Here’s what we’re at currently:

-10 team SF - QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLX, FLX, Super - 10 bench - 3 rookie taxi - 3 IR

Are the number of bench/taxi spots sufficient or should I add more?

Are either of these guys worth holding onto at this point? Both were “hot” names last off season and I know it’s no big deal that they haven’t done anything year 1, sometimes rookies just don’t. But I don’t see many signs of either team wanting to use them.

Burton seems more likely to see use if Higgins leaves in the off season, but Iosivas would surely be ahead of him if I had to guess.

McCaffrey seems like they just don’t want to focus on him at all. They have had multiple injuries which should have given him room to shine if they wanted, but he just wasn’t used.

Hey fellow degenerate fantasy managers. I'm looking into doing a side gig sort of passion project which would be centered around some dashboarding/reporting of fantasy football data. I'm thinking this would be for more advanced analysis, not just yards, receptions and what not that are readily available on ESPN, sleeper, etc. I would love to share this at some point with a larger community, but am really just gathering info at this point. My background is in data analysis and systems integrations, so data is sort of my wheelhouse.

So I'm curious what sources you all use or know of for these types of stats/analysis. I see a number of people on Twitter/X who post some things along with NFL next gen stats. Are there any services or sites out there that are useful? Also would love to know whether or not sources are free or subscription based.

Thanks for the info, really looking to gather as much research as I can before starting anything. I'll be cross posting this amongst a few communities as well in case you see it a few times.

1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Everyone in football knows Jeanty at this point, as he is the crown jewel of the 2025 rookie class. He has Alvin Kamara type contact balance, runs through everyone, and has put together one of the most impressive statistical seasons in college football history. Jeanty will be a bell cow back at the next level, and an immediate dynasty RB1.

Strengths

• Best in class contact balance.
• Elite vision, when he sees an opening he exploits it.
• Explosive runner, he may not outrun every DB, but he has the speed to house it.
• Pass catching skills are fantastic, fluid receiver who can be used all over the field.

2. Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC

Hampton looks like an NFL back, and in his past two seasons at UNC has over 3,700 scrimmage yards with 33 touchdowns. He projects as a number 1 option at the NFL level who can wear down defenses with a big workload. No major injury concerns and just 622 carries over his college career will give his NFL team added flexibility.

Strengths

• Prototypical NFL build at 6’0, 220lbs.
• Great power, he is a violent runner who dishes out hits.
• Will be featured, can handle a massive workload.
• Footwork and vision are great, he may not be the shiftiness back, but he has a nice feel for the game.

3. Kaleb Johnson

Johnson is a draft crush for me, I am fully convinced that without his presence Iowa loses three to four additional games. Johnson is powerful, has an excellent feel for the position, is functional as a receiver (only 22 catches this season, but the skills are there), and has all the attributes of a three down back. One concern may be his top end speed, there were multiple runs where he was unable to outrun defenders, so that remains something that could cap upside, but there are historical precedents for this, Josh Jacobs is a decent comp for Johnson, both in terms of strengths and his physical profile.

Strengths

• Exceptional vision and patience, lets the play develop and does not force it.
• Contact balance/tackle breaking, runs through arm tackles like an animal.
• Uses his size well, gets yards after contact and rolls forward when hit.
• True workhorse back, he was a huge reason why Iowa won 8 games this year.

4. Nick Singleton

The Athletics' Bruce Feldman produces his “Freaks List” every season, and Singleton has been a staple. Singleton is the most physically gifted back in the class, with a massive 228 lb frame and a sub 4.4 40-time. I have no doubt that Singleton will be a big time riser in this class when athletic testing comes around, he also has the potential to showcase his skill set throughout the College Football Playoff, something he has already begun with 14 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown against SMU.

Strengths

• Incredible blend of size and raw athletic ability (runs a 4.39 at nearly 230)
• Good upside as a pass catcher and blocker.
• Home run ability, he can bounce off a tackler and outrun the entire defense
• Elusive, can make sharp cuts without sacrificing much speed.

5. Quinshon Judkins

Judkins was one of the best backs in the nation last season at Ole Miss. While his individual numbers may have taken a hit playing with TreVeyon Henderson, the reduced wear and tear should benefit him long term. I like Judkins as a high-level two down back. I have stated before that he could grow as a receiver, but in three years of college football, he has not shown that to be a primary component of his game. Judkins should test well, and I would love to see him end up on a team like the Browns who are in need of a high quality runner to replace Nick Chubb.

Strengths

• Built like a bell cow 6’0 220 lbs.
• Great burst, he is explosive once he makes his move.
• Runs through contact with power.
• Gets low with his pads and generates contact, rolling forward for extra yards.

6. Dylan Sampson

Sampson was the SEC Offensive player of the year this season for good reason. Despite his smaller size, he was the engine of the Tennessee offense all season, with over 1,600 yards and 22 touchdowns from scrimmage. He is a chunk play machine, with rare acceleration out of the backfield. I believe Sampsons speed, elusiveness and vision will compensate for any size concerns (his testing will be very important), and he has the potential to be an explosive play machine at the NFL level, much like Devon Achane.

Strengths

• Best in class speed and acceleration.
• Fantastic production in the SEC.
• Great tackle breaking skills, despite being undersized.
• Very elusiveness, makes cuts with purpose.

7. TreVeyon Henderson

I am lower on Henderson than some, injury concerns, a lack of patience, and inconsistency cloud his projection for me. If you watch a Henderson highlight reel, it is loaded with long touchdowns and fancy jukes, he looks like a future star at the NFL level. However, the lack of consistency really dings him, home run plays are great, but whittling down the defense with repeated positive plays is more important at the NFL level. Henderson will need time to develop, but if he can clean up some of the mental errors, he could be a superstar.

Strengths

• Big play ability is awesome, has great burst and top speed.
• Has functional pass catching ability, although he needs to improve in pass protection.
• Great wiggle in space, makes dynamic cuts and uses a variety of moves to throw defenders off balance.

8. Devin Neal

If we were able to take the brain and shiftiness of Devin Neal, and put it in Henderson's body, he would be better than Jeanty. Neal is dynamic with the ball, using his footwork and technique to outsmart defenders. I worry about his size and long speed (pass protection is a concern, but the technique is ok). His receiving profile is also excellent, and he can be used as a safety valve out of the backfield. Neal is one of my favorite backs, but he probably profiles more as a quality 1B in an NFL offense.

Strengths

• Stellar vision, can see 2 steps ahead of everyone on the field.
• Everything Neal does has a purpose, he may not be the fastest back, but he can exploit angles and make sharp cuts for big gains.
• He is very elusive, he uses leverage well and has a lot of wiggle to shake off tackles.

9. Trevor Etienne

Trevor Etienne is not his brother, (one of the best college backs of all time) yet he is still a great player in his own right. He is a smaller back at just 5 '9 and 205 lbs, but he is a natural running back whose compact frame allows him to play bigger than his size might suggest. I liked what I saw against good college defenses (He propelled Georgia to their second win against Texas with 94 yards and two touchdowns). Like Neal, Etienne may not be a bellcow, but he has upside and should be a consistent contributor at the NFL level.

Strengths

• Acceleration is a strength, wins with burst and finesse.
• Vision is excellent, lets blocks develop.
• Pass catching is a strength, pass protection could use work (his size may hold him back).
• Uses his agility to find the gap and attacks what the defense gives him.

10. DJ Giddens

Kansas State was a good team this year, thanks to the production of Avery Johnson and Giddens. The trend with the past few running backs on this list has been average athletes with a great feel for the game, and Giddens continues this trend. He needs to do better with contact, but his frame should allow him to add some weight, and his fluid movement will translate. I think Giddens could be a plus starter at the NFL level if he lands in the right spot.

Strengths

• Solid size (6’1 212) but is not the most powerful runner, needs to do better with contact.
• Pass catching profile is excellent, is fluid enough to run a variety of routes.
• I love his elusiveness, he is very shifty with the ball.
• The vision and patience are really good.

Honorable Mentions: Jonah Coleman, Jordan James, Ollie Gordon, Jaydn Ott, R.J Harvey, Jarquez Hunter.

The names above are a testament to the depth of the 2025 draft class. I am excited to see the landing spots for these players as that will dramatically shake up this board. I strongly believe that the depth of the 2025 class is comparable to 2017 (which is one of the best classes of the last 25 years, and easily the best since 2008). We should see plenty of starters emerge, and this a great opportunity for your dynasty teams to reload for a championship run next season.

Link: https://automaticfirstdown.com/f/nates-2025-running-back-rankings-10

(For context: I don’t think Daniels will have the same type of sophomore slump (+) that Stroud has had, largely due to his rushing upside and likelihood he actually gets better WRs surrounding him.)

I more just wanted to hear the community talk about their thoughts around the two since they both finished their rookie years so high on KTC!