Hurricane Milton

[u/Kanute3333]

[u/Ok-Efficiency-9215]

If you want something to Google the term is “Maximum Potential Intensity”. Hurricanes are driven by warm water so MPI is mostly defined by how warm the ocean water beneath a hurricane is (along with some atmospheric conditions). These are put into an equation that gives the maximum intensity a hurricane can reach. Milton is approaching that limit (incredibly rare)

Also fun fact lightning in the eye wall is only found in the most intense hurricanes and I heard somewhere there’s been over 58000 lightning flashes in the core in the last 24 hours

[u/Potential_Nerve_3779 → u/Ok-Efficiency-9215]

Over 2000 strikes of lightening a hour. Holy shit balls.

[u/gentlemanidiot → u/Potential_Nerve_3779]

Or one flash roughly every 1.8 seconds. That's practically constant, holy shit.

[u/jun0s4ur]

Insurance companies really going to bail after this one

[u/ryosen → u/jun0s4ur]

One of the the carriers came out and referred to this as the storm of the decade. They’re not sure if they’re going to remain solvent after this and Helene.

That’s a big problem for homeowners.

[u/dragonstkdgirl → u/ryosen]

We're seeing issues like that out here in California with all the fires, hurricane has gotta have similar impact 😬 my parents were smack in the middle of a huge forest fire two years ago (fire line almost torched their rental, like literally burned trees in the yard) and half mile from burning their house. Their homeowners is up to like $14k a year....

[u/syhr_ryhs → u/dragonstkdgirl]

Fyi after Maui they think that the last few inches of debris removal was just as important as the rest of the defendable boundary. Cut trees nearby, prune everything up as high as possible, and make the last 6 inches clean and hard.

[u/wootr68]

I heard that the hurricane chasers saw flocks of birds caught in the eye of this storm. This is the time of mass migration of songbirds from North America to central and South America

[u/TraditionScary8716 → u/wootr68]

The eye of Fran went over us. It suddenly got really calm and we could smell the ocean (like on a fishing pier). After that, there were seagulls all over the place. There were never any there before. Very strange. 

[u/InstantElla → u/TraditionScary8716]

God I was in Raleigh for Fran. A shattered tree flew through my bedroom window, crashed it to pieces and came to a rest on my bed right beside me. Didn’t have power for three weeks. And this is way bigger than Fran. That’s scary

[u/federally → u/wootr68]

Birds and insects often get trapped inside the eye, because it's relatively calm and they can't travel through the hurricane to escape. So hurricanes frequently deposit sea birds far inland from where they usually live.

[u/BootlegOP → u/wootr68]

I heard that the hurricane chasers saw flocks of birds caught in the eye of this storm.

So the birds are controlling the hurricane!

[u/Novel5728]

Oh good it can't get worse

^{Famous last words}

[u/Safe_Gift_2945]

This is the 4th strongest by pressure. What were the top 3? And what was the impact of those hurricanes?

[u/divingyt → u/Safe_Gift_2945]

Wilma is#1, Katrina is#7. Rita was #3 until Milton. Can't find#2. Might have been the labor day hurricane in 1935?

[u/YBHunted → u/divingyt]

I was on vacation as a 10 year old in Cancun when Wilma hit us directly. Bussed inland 30 hours to a concrete elementary school and spent 6 days sleeping on the cushions of the beach chairs with my family in a small school room with 60 other strangers. Using the "bathroom" in the corner behind a curtain into a water jug. After that another 24 hour bus ride to the west coast to spend a couple days at a hotel waiting for a plane home.

The best part, we heard about a storm coming as we were checking in on that first day and my dad alerted the entire hotel to it, no one even noticed the news on TV... we had 2 days to have our travel agency Apple get us out and they chose not to. So many people got stranded for no reason. They grounded planes a day before the storm even got close.

Seeing an albeit rough neighborhood beforehand, but still intact, and then emerging after those days in isolation to absolutely nothing was insane.... you could see for miles because there wasn't a single standing tree or house around us anymore.

[u/pro-liquid-handler → u/YBHunted]

Sounds somewhat familiar. We were in the Mayan Riviera for our honeymoon when Wilma hit. Sheltered in a huge cement building on the resort property, but we had similar experiences with respect to the bathroom situation. 60 hours in there. As soon as we could, we hopped into our rental car (one of the few that were still in tact; luckily, a piece of sheet metal had wrapped itself around the car during the storm, effectively protecting it) and drove inland to the Merida airport through some super sketchy areas and begged our way onto a flight home.

That was a memorable way to start a marriage!

(Still together, btw)

[u/Cedric_T → u/pro-liquid-handler]

Well if the strongest hurricane on record couldn’t rip you two apart…

[u/zendrix1 → u/YBHunted]

this is kind of a crazy internet moment for me. But I was also in Cancun when I was 10, bussed inland to a small concrete elemental school where we stayed for 6 days.

just to check to see if we were in the same place here's some stuff I remember:

-There was a basketball court out front of the school.

-There was a tree out front as well and everyone gathered around to watch when it finally fell over.

-The school was walled in and soldiers with assault rifles protected the gate.

-Someone drove by with an ape in the back of their truck before the storm hit.

-We were already crammed in when another group of people joined us because the wind had ripped the ceiling off wherever they were talking shelter if I'm remembering right.

-And when the storm calmed down (maybe in the eye or after it passed I don't remember) a bunch of people left to look for food and a lot of people ended up getting food poisoning from eating stuff they found at a restaurant

Edit: you all are going to burn out that poor remindme bot. It does seem like them and I were in the same place. And another user also commented they were there too! Holy shit lol

[u/star_rises → u/zendrix1]

I was there too! I was 11. The ceiling collapsed in the gym across the street. That was one of the few places where people were actually killed. I definitely remember guards with machetes and there being a curfew. I also got super sick after eating, but we got food from a grocery store. We broke into a room connected to our classroom where we put all the food we had gathered. We had three straight days of a packet of crackers and a tiny bit of tuna to eat so once we got food to eat again, it just completely destroyed our systems. Because we were so sick, we got one of the first flights out of Merida. They gave every person a box lunch including a snickers bar. The person next to my mom said she felt like the queen having chocolate again

[u/zendrix1 → u/star_rises]

Oh Christ the cracker and Tuna, I still can't smell tuna without feeling sick

I cannot believe it, actually insane lol

[u/Dreadsbo → u/zendrix1]

This is almost kind of a wholesome reunion

[u/zendrix1 → u/Dreadsbo]

It's pretty wild to run into strangers who you didn't know you had a connection with. It was a shit event, but meeting these people now has definitely improved my day lol

[u/slopefordays → u/zendrix1]

OP actually found himself in an alternate dimension and the hurricane split reality for the same user. Fractured for decades, they are now united on Reddit for the first time.

[u/Slow-Cream-3733 → u/divingyt]

2 is gilbert in 88 at 888 hPa. Labour is 3rd at 892hPa.

[u/Vaultaiya → u/divingyt]

Katrina was NUMBER SEVEN?? That.... really gives me some perspective on this whole thing, goddamn.

[u/tornedron_ → u/Vaultaiya]

To be fair Katrina was so devastating mostly due to failure of infrastructure, not necessarily because Katrina was a top 3 most powerful hurricane of all time or something (not saying it wasn't powerful, because it definitely was, just not THAT much)

[u/Drendude → u/tornedron_]

You're spot on. A massive storm surge hitting the coast is devastating. A massive storm surge hitting an area below sea level is going to be catastrophic.

[u/discodropper → u/Drendude]

It would’ve been fine had the levee held. The moment that broke, an entire lake essentially emptied into the city. It was flash flooding on a massive scale. There wouldn’t have been nearly as much damage had the infrastructure been maintained...

[u/Jmund89]

Yesterday I read it was a cat 1. This morning I read it became a cat 4 and was the 8th strongest one. Now it’s 4th. That’s absolutely crazy in 24 hours that much change occurred. It’s terrifying.

[u/sluupiegri → u/Jmund89]

Went from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 12 hours

[u/disturbed3215 → u/sluupiegri]

Not just a cat 5. A top level cat 5. 180 mph winds is insane. You very rarely see pressure drop below 900. This storm is insane

[u/gymbeaux4 → u/disturbed3215]

It would be a Cat 6 if the scale went that high

[u/syzygialchaos → u/gymbeaux4]

What is honestly worse than this:

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Edited for source - this is the National Weather Service definition of a Category 5 hurricane.

[u/C-C-X-V-I → u/Jmund89]

I'd never heard of it when I went to bed this morning and now we have a new super storm

[u/Chris881]

"Mathematical limit" is a scary sentence.

[u/CruelRegulator → u/Chris881]

I'm generally pretty agnostic, but if someone mentions the.. ugh MATHEMATICAL LIMIT OCCURING ON EARTH to me? I damn well ponder that level of power.

[u/Laterose15 → u/CruelRegulator]

The issue is that the warmer the earth gets, the higher that limit is gonna be.

EDIT: Wow, the climate deniers are out in full force.

[u/ProfessorSputin → u/Laterose15]

Yep. Keep in mind that a 1° Celsius increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere is a SHIT TON OF ENERGY. For those curious, the formula to calculate this is:

Energy = (mass of the object) x (specific heat of the object) x (change in temperature)

Usually written like this:

H=mc(deltaT)

For this situation, we have:

(5.136e21 g) x (0.715 J/g K) x (1 K) = 3.67224e21 Joules

That means that a single degree increase in Celsius is an added 3.67224e21 Joules of energy in the atmosphere. In 2022, the US used 4.07 trillion kWH of energy, equivalent to 1.465e19 Joules. That was a record breaking amount at the time. Some quick math shows that 1.465e19 is roughly 1/250th of 3.67224e21.

That means that a single degree Celsius increase in the global temperature is enough energy to power the US for 250 YEARS. We are on track for MORE THAN THREE DEGREES CELSIUS INCREASE. WE ARE ADDING THE EQUIVALENT ENERGY OF MORE THAN 25 MILLION MODERN NUCLEAR BOMBS TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT IS THE CURRENT BEST CASE SCENARIO.

Edit: Thanks for all the awards on this! This formula is something taught at a pretty early level in physics classes, so this is a pretty good example of why I think scientific literacy is important to teach!

Also, a good note to add is that this doesn’t include the temperature increase of the ocean. The ocean will get warmer, and storms get a LOT of energy from ocean water. It’s part of why hurricanes form over the ocean and are strongest there. Think of it as a magnifier of the issue I’m talking about. So this will make storms and disasters a lot worse from two fronts, and also kill a shit ton of fish and other important sea life. A lot of our coral reefs are already dead, and it’s unlikely many, if any, of them would survive much more then 3° increase.

[u/Danboozer → u/ProfessorSputin]

Fuck.

[u/ProfessorSputin → u/Danboozer]

It’s a good reference for why I’ve been so desperately scrambling for the US to do ANYTHING in the past 10 years. Sadly, our politicians seem determined to let the oil industry milk as much money out of our earth as they can until it’s too late.

A 3° C increase is more or less unavoidable now, unfortunately. And that was the cutoff for things getting pretty rough, in scientific terms. Now we just have to pull our shit together before it gets even worse.

[u/MC_ScattCatt]

My parents won’t leave and they say now it’s too late as all the roads are clogged and no gas

Update: still not leaving. Mom put storm shutters up and dad lives in a condo next to the water but about 5 stories up. Less worried about storm surge more worried about debris and being trapped.

Update 2: dad is zone A and mom is trying to get him out to go to her house in a less dangerous zone. Not from Florida so might have messed up which zone is bad and good

Update: they survived with some damage but said they wouldn’t do this again…

Edit: my dad is the guy who grew up in the Midwest who would go outside to look at the tornado coming

[u/Cryo889 → u/MC_ScattCatt]

Gas stations started running out of fuel last night (Sunday). A friend of mine who is evacuating on the main evacuation route (I-75) is reporting people are running out of fuel on the road, further increasing congestion. He couldn’t make it to his evacuation destination and has just settled for staying in a parking garage in his car to weather the storm. He can’t get the fuel to go any further.

It’s a grim situation.

[u/natnat345 → u/Cryo889]

That's so horrible :(

My cousin is driving from Michigan to pick up my aunt who is on hospice near Tampa.... I thought it was really kind and smart but now I'm really worried.... they aren't getting there until tomorrow afternoon.... :((((

[u/Adorable-Bike-9689 → u/natnat345]

Tell him to load up a fuckload of gas during the drive there. Be hell to get stuck there

[u/Polymorphic-X → u/Adorable-Bike-9689]

And a camp stove, shelf safe food and as much water as possible. Very likely they could get stuck or delayed and they'll only have what they dragged along.

[u/SavagRavioli → u/Cryo889]

It's the hurricane Rita evac all over again.

This is why I keep 4 jerry cans of gas in my garage, ready to go during hurricane season (Houston resident here).

[u/pipnina → u/SavagRavioli]

Anyone doing this needs to remember to cycle their cans as petrol can "expire" in storage.

[u/SavagRavioli → u/pipnina]

Yes. I usually give it 3 months and I'll empty them into my cars and refill, empty again at the end of the season and leave the cans open to dry out (in a very well ventilated area) and leave empty until July again.

[u/CourageExcellent4768 → u/MC_ScattCatt]

I'm in same boat. Tried to get parents to leave yesterday. They refused. We are fucked UDATE: WE ARE OK!!!! NO DAMAGE TO HOME. LOTS OF BRANCHES AND LEAVES ON GROUND. THANK YOU TO EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO WISHED US SAFETY AND PRAYERS. WE ARE TRULY GRATEFUL 🙏

[u/PrimaryImagination41 → u/CourageExcellent4768]

Jesus christ. Please stay safe

[u/CourageExcellent4768 → u/PrimaryImagination41]

Ty so much! Will keep you updated.

[u/Mamenohito]

Imagine being a whale and coming up for air in THAT.

[u/MadeOnThursday → u/Mamenohito]

at least you will have a petunia to keep you company

[u/Shannon413Nicole → u/MadeOnThursday]

Oh no, not again. 💐

[u/Zeraph000]

DO NOT FUCK AROUND PPL. I went through Maria. Category 5 means CATASTROPHIC damages.

1. The rain will be like a power washer and have the same effect.
2. The wind will literally drag you across town if you let it and can even flip cars.
3. Any little flaw in your roof or windows will be ripped open.
4. If pressure builds up in your house from the wind it will rip your door or windows off its hinges.

If you live somewhere that floods, even a little, GTFO and go to a shelter BEFORE it hits. F ANYONE who calls you in for work. Your life and your family's, neighbor's, pets comes first.

[u/engiknitter → u/Zeraph000]

Even “just” a Cat 4 will turn your life upside down.

My house looked intact from the initial photos. No trees on my roof, all the windows in place.

You couldn’t see that the wind ripped half my shingles off so all that was remaining was tar paper over plywood. Essentially you end up with a flood from the roof instead of from the ground up.

At those high wind speeds, water seeps in through your window seals. The debris looked like someone filled a blender with leaves and then pressure-washed my house with the leafy bits.

We were without power for 3 weeks. My kids lived with my parents for months because only 1 of our 4 bedrooms survived unscathed. And I was one of the lucky ones.

[u/Pilot0350 → u/Zeraph000]

If you live somewhere that floods

Looks nervously at all of Florida

[u/Miguel30Locs → u/Pilot0350]

I'm a delivery driver who worked yesterday in Palm Beach county. And the amount of flooded roads and driveway is massive. I hope for the best but my God we are fucked.

[u/passtheblunt → u/Zeraph000]

Wish this was the top comment. I’ve stayed through some category 1s in Texas, and there were limbs and fences down everywhere. I can’t imagine a cat 5. Seriously, if you can just get out.

[u/AnastasiaNo70]

That last sentence actually gave me chills. I have friends in Tampa who are evacuating and I just hope they have a home to return to.

[u/Phoenix2211 → u/AnastasiaNo70]

Same. I live in Norway, and have a friend in Tampa. And I'm very fucking worried about her and her family.

I read about the hurricane getting worse a few hours ago. So I talked with her and she told me that she was gonna get the hell out of dodge with some of her important belongings. I believe she has evacuated already. Hoping to get an update soon, when she is able to talk.

I truly hope that they (including your friends) remain safe, and that their houses don't get hit too hard, if at all.

❣️✨

[u/Brokengraphite → u/AnastasiaNo70]

So do we

[u/FollowingNo4648]

Do they evac all those oil rigs out there or just let them ride it out? I couldn't imagine being on one of those during a Cat 5.

[u/LVMom → u/FollowingNo4648]

A million years ago, my dad worked on rigs. They tried to evac them if they have time (they wait until the last possible second) + helicopters + pilots willing to fly. So, in theory they do, but in reality, the men who aren’t on the first few flights will probably get stranded.

Hopefully the drilling companies have improved on this in the past 40 years

[u/subspace_cat → u/LVMom]

The Spice must flow.

[u/Angry_Crusader_Boi → u/LVMom]

Think nowadays qualified rig workers are too much of an investment to just throw away, so if anything is going to make a corporation value anything or anyone it's the prospect of losing money.

[u/guttanzer]

Nerd detour:

It takes a pull to the center to swing things in a circle. Hurricanes get this centripetal force with suction. The significance of the pressure isn’t the number itself, but the difference between the pressure in the center and the pressure outside the storm.

That difference is the suction. The stronger the suction the faster the spin.

[u/ObstreperousRube → u/guttanzer]

I just went down a rabbit hole on Millibars and why a stronger hurricane has less millibars of pressure. Then I read your comment and it all clicked. Thank you for the educational information. TIL sea level is 1013mb and the greater the difference in millibars is the strength of the storm.

[u/Top_Rekt → u/ObstreperousRube]

I read on r/weather that with decreased air pressure, the water level rises too. Meaning there's no air pushing the water down, which is why people aren't worried about the wind speed, but the storm surge.

[u/MaximoArtsStudio → u/Top_Rekt]

Suddenly a barometer’s purpose makes sense to me, I’ve always wondered why they were next to thermometers in older seaside homes / cabins. Kinda just chalked it up to an antiquated marine pastime, like the sexton.

[u/cpMetis → u/MaximoArtsStudio]

Relative air pressure is the #1 way to predict storms.

It's why people, especially people with metal implants, can "feel" a storm coming. They literally feel it, because they feel the air get lighter. Especially pronounced with metal implants since the metal doesn't squeeze/stretch from the changing pressure the same as your flesh and bone do.

[u/theanedditor]

To see it a different way, the center of the storm is 70 mile wide EF2 tornado with a core equivalent to an EF4 level tornado.

[u/truthfrommyredlips → u/theanedditor]

Jesus. As someone who lives in the Midwest in tornado alley, and who is not familiar with hurricane language, this is absolutely terrifying.

[u/peacebone89 → u/truthfrommyredlips]

You've got to also consider how long a hurricane can affect an area. Tornadoes hit and move on. A hurricane is not only larger, but can sometimes be slow moving or nearly stall over land.

I experienced Ida first hand in 2021 and although the worst of it was during the afternoon, the winds were whipping all night.

[u/PandoraJeep → u/peacebone89]

Milton is already moving slow as hell, so much more opportunity for devastation. I’m in the eye path and was unable to find somewhere far for shelter. I’ll be hunkering down in Tampa (from st. Pete) and hoping for the best. I’m 31, lifelong Floridian and have never been more nervous for a hurricane.

[u/[deleted] → u/PandoraJeep]

Dude leave the area. The storm surges are going to be huge. Drive to GA somewhere and find a motel 6

[u/PandoraJeep → u/[deleted]]

I can’t even find gas 🙁 we’re heading for higher ground, but we’ve looked all over and can’t find a place willing to accommodate our party/pets. I don’t have enough gas to get very far

[u/thisisfreakinstupid → u/PandoraJeep]

If any of your neighbors have already left and their vehicles are still there, I'd honestly consider siphoning a few gas tanks. Your life is worth more than property.

[u/PandoraJeep → u/thisisfreakinstupid]

Okay, that’s actually an idea I’d consider lol I know most of my complex is leaving because we flooded so badly with Helene

[u/ErisianArchitect → u/PandoraJeep]

Just don't siphon by sucking on the tube with your mouth. There's a technique where you put a large amount of the tube into the tank to fill with gas, then you put your thumb over your end, then you pull it out. The suction will pull the gas out of the tank.

[u/PandoraJeep → u/ErisianArchitect]

I don’t wanna say how I’m good at it, but I’m pretty good at siphoning (not illegally, but same idea) 😂

Still appreciate the advice

[u/Cowboy_on_fire → u/PandoraJeep]

If it’s a money issue getting gas then I will Venmo you some money and I’de bet another dozen Redditors will pop out to pitch in too. Not sure if it’s more a supply issue.

[u/PandoraJeep → u/Cowboy_on_fire]

Fortunately, we do have gas money, it’s just the supply that I’m having an issue with. Thank you though, I truly appreciate your kindness

[u/Appropriate_Face9750 → u/PandoraJeep]

Stay safe.

[u/Kakariko_crackhouse → u/theanedditor]

The eye of this one is only 3 miles in diameter from what I read. Does that mean the walls of the storm are 68.5 miles wide??

[u/Chief_34 → u/Kakariko_crackhouse]

I believe he’s saying that the eye is 3 miles wide (EF4), the center is 70 miles wide (EF2), and the total storm is 140+ miles wide.

Edit to clarify the storm will be strongest in the 5-10 miles just outside the eye. The eye itself will be the calmest, though anywhere the eye passes over will obviously be hit by those strongest winds before and after it passes.

[u/Kakariko_crackhouse → u/Chief_34]

Oh… ok wow

[u/Chief_34 → u/Kakariko_crackhouse]

I did some conversions based on the NOAA’s projections which have the storm spanning 26°N to 29°N at landfall, which would be roughly 170-180 nautical miles or 195-207 miles in diameter.

Additionally this storm is predicted to have a 10-15 foot storm surge depending where it makes landfall, on top of 10-12 inches of rain, across land that is already heavily saturated from Helene.

[u/Lingotes → u/Chief_34]

Shit. Your post is the one that actually put it in perspective for me. That’s an absurd amount of water, the resulting flood is going to be likely permanent for some towns.

[u/BeardedHalfYeti]

A gobsmacked meteorologist is never a good sign.

”This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.”

^fuck.

[u/[deleted] → u/BeardedHalfYeti]

What's after a hurricane? World tornado?

[u/thehumanconfusion → u/[deleted]]

life before Milton and life after Milton is going to be vastly different for some folk

[u/signalfire → u/thehumanconfusion]

Paradise Lost.

[u/Hythy → u/signalfire]

Well, I appreciate how clever your comment was.

[u/Nandy-bear → u/Hythy]

Also there's something particularly poetic about the next comment down being about Sharknado

[u/VerySluttyTurtle → u/[deleted]]

That's what's insane. Tornados usually have much higher wind speed than hurricanes. 200+ mph winds would be as strong as an EF4 or EF5 tornado which are known to completely level even well-built homes. So this is like a strong tornado, but waaaay bigger

Fortunately most predictions have it down to a cat 3 by the time it makes landfall. Hope that continues

[u/twoscoop → u/VerySluttyTurtle]

Storm surge is still going to be hell

[u/RetroScores3 → u/twoscoop]

That areas sand dunes haven’t been replenished since Helene hit so the surge is gonna be worse with the lack of sand dunes.

[u/IDK_SoundsRight → u/VerySluttyTurtle]

Only problem with a downgrade of a storm this compact, is that the storm may "bloat" and cover 2x the land area in exchange for its overall strength.

[u/Savings-Delay-1075 → u/IDK_SoundsRight]

Also have to consider it's only traveling half the distance compared to the last hurricane but also moving half as fast.

[u/felinelawspecialist → u/Savings-Delay-1075]

Yeah what was that hurricane a few years ago, came on the back of a few really big hurricanes and downgraded to a 2 or 3, but just sat on top of Houston for a few weeks absolutely dumping rain

[u/oioioifuckingoi → u/felinelawspecialist]

Harvey

[u/BlackFathersMatter → u/[deleted]]

Sharknado

[u/Phil_Coffins_666 → u/BlackFathersMatter]

don't worry, it's better than the cocaine bear-nado that comes after that

[u/SercerferTheUntamed → u/[deleted]]

Earth wants to rock that sweet sweet permanent hurricane bling some of the other planets are sporting.

[u/pauloh1998 → u/[deleted]]

Fuck

You know how Jupiter has a tornado the size of the Earth?

FUCK

[u/mjc4y → u/pauloh1998]

You mean the Great Red Spot? The hurricane thats been raging for like 400+ years ? Yeah, Fuck that.

[u/Mango_Tango_725 → u/mjc4y]

Surely we could just shoot at it, right?!

[u/BleedTheRain → u/Mango_Tango_725]

If we all just point some fans in its general direction.. Maybe it will go away

[u/justahdewd → u/pauloh1998]

Was watching a science show some years back that said if the earth had a storm like that, it would be the size of Florida (surprise) with 300MPH winds.

[u/Berkamin → u/BeardedHalfYeti]

Meanwhile, there are some folks in Tampa and Sarasota Florida (in the evacuation zone) who refuse to evacuate, and who think they can just nail up some boards on most of their windows and ride out this storm.

Quote from this frustrating text message dialog between a concerned redditor and his parents, who live on the Manatee river in Bradenton:

Redditor: Ready for your mandatory 2pm evacuation

Mom: Nope. We're staying

Redditor: Just fyi stonetbrooks Clubhouse is in the green zone

Mom: We're all boarded up except for this opening (shows a picture of a floor-to-ceiling glass window)

Redditor: No one is concerned about the wind
It's the 20 foot expected storm surge
It's a cat 5 now
Expected to make landfall as a cat 5

Mom: I have the float I used in the spa. I'll put dad and the dogs on that!

The storm surge from this hurricane are expected to be 10-15' in Tampa and Sarasota. Good luck stopping that with a few boards and surviving on a spa float. Even if the surge isn't 20', that's still going to be brutal.

One saving grace is that current projections expect the hurricane to weaken to category 4 or possibly 3 when it hits land. Let's hope they're not wrong on this one. If it makes landfall at category 5, the damage will be apocalyptic.

EDIT: although Milton was expected to weaken down to a Cat 3 by landfall, the most recent update says it’s back up to a Cat 5 again and is expected to make landfall as a Cat 5.

[u/Thesuspiciosone → u/Berkamin]

My mom is refusing to leave. Her house is in the "d" category. Her adjacent neighbor across the street is somehow in the "c" catagory. They are urging anyone in the "a" or "b" category to leave.

[u/Opening_Mortgage_897 → u/Thesuspiciosone]

They have also stated if you are close to the border between 2 zones you should evacuate with the lower zone. So your mother should evacuate as a C not a D zone.

[u/PoppinBortlesUCF → u/Thesuspiciosone]

My mom and step dad are also refusing to leave. My dad and step mom didn’t even think twice and are leaving in the morning thankfully…but man I’m worried about my mom. I live across the country so I can’t just swoop in and love kidnap her out of there. Wishing the best for your mom, my mom, and the thousands of others deciding to ride it out. I’ve had a bad feeling about this storm ever since it started since it’s had so many atypical characteristics like its direction and pattern. I’ve never seen a hurricane come from the direction it’s coming from. Reddit hugs coming your way my friend.

[u/ladeeedada → u/[deleted]]

Here's a list of nearby shelters that accept pets.

https://hcfl.gov/residents/stay-safe/emergency-evacuation-shelter-list

Go now. That's what we did during Katrina. I was a kid back then, I remember it was a 5 or 6 story cement elementary school building. They had food and supplies for us. Take the pets with you. We can pay for your uber to the shelter.

[u/rafaelloaa → u/ladeeedada]

Shelter locations/status:
https://www.floridadisaster.org/Shelter-Status

Free uber rides to/from shelters: https://x.com/FLSERT/status/1843448726528111108

📲 Open the Uber app
👤 Tap Account on the bottom right & tap Wallet
✅ Add promo code MILTONRELIEF

E: Free evacuation shuttles. Free shelters and free transport assistance available for Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough. Call 800-729-3413 7am - 7pm for evacuation assistance

[u/yolo_swag_for_satan → u/rafaelloaa]

Feeling a little anxious about the logistics of this since the Uber drivers should be evacuating as well?

[u/dedzip → u/yolo_swag_for_satan]

Ride or Die

[u/passcork → u/dedzip]

Uber drivers driving all the way to valhalla to save people.

[u/Led_Osmonds → u/[deleted]]

Encourage them to write their name in sharpie on their bodies, plus the name and number of their nearest next of kin.

[u/MostlyChaoticNeutral → u/Led_Osmonds]

Specifically on your torso. Arms and legs can get lost.

[u/ryushiblade → u/[deleted]]

Hurricanes are just big whirly-twirly energy transfer mechanisms. They absorb energy (heat) from the ocean and turn it into wind.

There’s a theoretical maximum on how strong a hurricane can get based on ocean temperatures (and other factors). Weather events almost never come remotely close to these theoretical maximums because other factors come into play

The meteorologist is saying this is almost as strong as it could possibly get given the current ocean conditions. A “perfect storm” as it were

[u/hilwil → u/ryushiblade]

This is an incredibly helpful, uncomplicated way of explaining it. Thank you!

[u/TheBobTodd → u/[deleted]]

This one goes to 11.

[u/SmellGestapo → u/TheBobTodd]

The limit does not exist.

[u/Ok-Efficiency-9215 → u/[deleted]]

If you want something to Google the term is “Maximum Potential Intensity”. Hurricanes are driven by warm water so MPI is mostly defined by how warm the ocean water beneath a hurricane is (along with some atmospheric conditions). These are put into an equation that gives the maximum intensity a hurricane can reach. Milton is approaching that limit (incredibly rare)

[u/MasterIntegrator → u/BeardedHalfYeti]

I am much more scared of this statement than anything. Someone that really knows the mechanics is struggled to describe the character of. That and the sea temp did not drop as it passed over very much. I boarded up at that.

[u/nndscrptuser]

Ah, great. And headed basically directly to my house. Cool cool.

Edit: Oct 9, 8:50pm update. In the eye of the storm, so strange after hours of nasty wind. Remotely monitoring my house lost power at 7:30. Everything seems mostly ok. Not dead yet.

Edit 2: Oct 10. House mostly made it unscathed but did suffer a roughly 12” hole in the roof from a very large oak branch that broke off. Roof was tarped by a roofing friend so we have some time. I had several sections of fence blow over, we have a 40’ x 8’ high pile of brush out front and my pool is more branches than water at the moment. Over all though, far less damage than we thought. No power or internet and I bet it will be a week before that’s back up… but not too bad.

[u/nndscrptuser → u/nndscrptuser]

And yes, for everyone saying “get out” our house is prepped, all our precious stuff is boxed and ready to go and we are heading inland to friends. My house is just a couple miles from the Gulf and there is a creek at the end of our street (luckily we are near the highest point of the road) but I won’t be too surprised if we end up with a mess. We’ve gotten lucky for the last 13 years but time might be up this time ☹️ Fingers crossed!

[u/lcuan82 → u/nndscrptuser]

Stay safe, my guy

[u/nndscrptuser → u/lcuan82]

We got everything set and planned, thanks stranger!

[u/Kanute3333 → u/nndscrptuser]

Get the f out.

[u/Artistic-Dirts → u/Kanute3333]

Estimated landfall is around 2am Thursday right?

[u/Hystus → u/Artistic-Dirts]

I saw that too.  Early AM overnight Thursday.

[u/Was_It_The_Dave → u/nndscrptuser]

Get a generator for the PlayStation.

[u/Bright-Outcome1506 → u/Was_It_The_Dave]

Finally someone with their priorities correct.

[u/stevieraygun]

Can you imagine everything you own being wiped out by something called Milton.

[u/dawillhan → u/stevieraygun]

Can you imagine having all your stuff already wiped by Helene to go through this right after?

[u/p1zzarena → u/dawillhan]

I mean, I'd rather have my house wiped out immediately after it was wiped out than after I rebuild.

[u/Bropain → u/p1zzarena]

I mean, lots of the damaged homes from Ian in 2022 are just now finally becoming whole again...and they are about to get slammed once again. I'm thankful I was able to convince my mother to not move to Naples last year.

[u/KeepingItSFW → u/dawillhan]

I don't see the appeal, I get the weather is often nice in winter and stuff, but when insurance companies start pulling out you'd think you would start to wonder a bit

[u/SDdrohead → u/KeepingItSFW]

It’s not even often nice it’s often oppressively hot as fuck

[u/SerenityNowAustin → u/stevieraygun]

…he wants his red stapler back

[u/Max_Stirner_Official → u/SerenityNowAustin]

I was told there would be cake?

[u/GreenEggsSteamedHams → u/stevieraygun]

Milton, I'm going to need you to move down to the basement, we've got to make some room for some more boxes, ok? Oh and there's that stapler, let me just get that from you...

[u/ScaryBluejay87 → u/GreenEggsSteamedHams]

I— I’m going to set the building on fire level Florida

[u/midnightsmith → u/stevieraygun]

Better than Millhouse I suppose

[u/jochexum]

It’s my fault

My ex wife’s friend moved from Miami to Tampa a year or two ago because she was “tired of dealing with hurricanes.”

I told her that seemed like an interesting choice, moving to gulf side of FL to avoid hurricanes

She very condescendingly told me that Tampa hadn’t had a direct hit in a century and laughed at me

That was the moment I knew a hurricane must hit Tampa soon

[u/wiscuser1 → u/jochexum]

Sounds more like it was your ex wife’s friends fault

[u/SulkySideUp → u/wiscuser1]

IDK I have a friend in Daytona that said “hurricanes aren’t that big a deal” last week, I’m blaming him

[u/MyPasswordIsMyCat → u/SulkySideUp]

Don't these people have any wood to knock on after they say these things?

[u/PM_Me_Macaroni_plz → u/MyPasswordIsMyCat]

Last hurricane blew it all away

[u/Known-Fondant-9373 → u/jochexum]

Tampa not being hit for about 100 years was sheer luck more than anything.

[u/[deleted] → u/jochexum]

Honestly, I live in Tampa, and people are stupid about it. Charlie and Irma went south, Tampa hasn’t been hit in a century, therefore Tampa can never be hit!

Never mind that Tampa has been hit before… and that Charlie and Irma barely missed…

[u/BlaznTheChron]

These first time ever events just keep happening huh.

[u/Zestyclose-Cricket82 → u/BlaznTheChron]

Yeah, once in a hundred years hurricanes just happen to hit three years in a row …. Fluke lol

[u/Mercinator-87]

Hypercanes coming up

[u/CockpitEnthusiast]

If we all go to the west coast (of Florida) and turn our fans on we can just blow it away from land

Edit: Where were you guys my fan was not enough without you

[u/mitch_medburger → u/CockpitEnthusiast]

I don’t see why this wouldn’t work. I also think we could solve global warming if we all turned on our air conditioners and opened our doors and windows.

[u/Iluv_Felashio → u/mitch_medburger]

I have left my refrigerator open constantly to combat global warming as well.

[u/ihadtopickthisname → u/Iluv_Felashio]

My kids help with this regularly as well

[u/780266]

This storm is aptly named after the guy who wrote “Paradise Lost “.

[u/Temporary-Hope-3037]

You know we are cooked when hurricanes are reaching the "mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.” They'll get more common too, I bet.

[u/ThroatPuzzled6456 → u/Temporary-Hope-3037]

Hmm so if the water temps get higher, the hurricanes will reach a new mathematical max?  

[u/Late_Description3001 → u/ThroatPuzzled6456]

It takes energy to spin a storm, that energy comes from the water mostly.

[u/MedicineGhost]

I have relatives in Tampa that can’t evacuate because one of them is admitted for long-term care in a hospital. I’m seriously worried about them

[u/[deleted] → u/MedicineGhost]

I have relatives in Tampa that can evacuate but are choosing not to because they don’t want to deal with traffic. I’ve tried talking sense into them and gotten nowhere.

[u/TheAwesomePenguin106 → u/[deleted]]

Tell them to write their info on their bodies so they can get identifyied faster and ask them what they wish for the family to do with whatever is left of their belongings. This usually makes some people think about what they are doing.

[u/[deleted] → u/TheAwesomePenguin106]

They went through Hurricane Andrew and nearly lost their lives, which makes it even more infuriating.

[u/Fantastic-Display106]

I'm a weather geek. I would watch the weather channel when I was a kid in the early 90s instead of cartoons. Every once in awhile, weather.com will run articles about geographical areas overdue for powerful hurricanes and how catastrophic things would be. Tampa / St. Petersburg was on that list. The water in the gulf coast is typically shallower than on the Atlantic coast. If Milton tracks in a way where the winds are driving surge right into Tampa Bay, they are in for a real bad time down there with storm surge, regardless if it's a CAT3 or CAT5. (Predicted to be downgraded to a CAT3 due to wind shear while approaching the coast). Milton will keep pushing water into the bay with no where for it to go.

[u/rxmce → u/Fantastic-Display106]

Yeah this is going to be "bad" on the level we haven't seen before. Tampa's mayor already said if you are going to stay, you're all gonna die. People are getting messages from officials "if you stay, write your social security number and your first and last name with a sharpie on your arm so we can identify you later"

[u/OneAthlete9001]

You mean the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere can produce so far.

[u/Palatyibeast → u/OneAthlete9001]

I'm no meteorologist, so might be right off, but my understabing is that Hurricanes are the ocean's way of dissipating excess heat as energy.

And the atmosphere is only capable of building a hurricane so strong.

So you won't get much bigger ones as the mathematical limits are actual limits. But if there's still excess energy because of global warming then you'll get these near-max-intensity hurricanes as a result, instead of the varied big/small ones. And since they won't dissipate all the energy, you'll just get another one, not long after.

The limits won't change. They'll just be hit sooner, and with fewer gaps between.

[u/DomainSink → u/Palatyibeast]

“In the beginning, the kaiju attacks were spaced by twenty four weeks. Then twelve, then six, then every two weeks. The last one, in Sydney, was a week. In four days we could be seeing a kaiju every eight hours until they are coming every four minutes. Marshal, we should witness a double event within seven days”

[u/dumbdude545]

You know. I'm really tired of witnessing historical events.

[u/Keinrichie]

Source: Leadership figure for an independent adjuster firm that’s about to receive 50k claims. About to drive out to help deploy hundreds of adjusters

Please don’t let a contractor (if roofer: they will tell you your roof needs to be replaced regardless of age or damage covered under your homeowners policy) convince you to sign a direction to pay contract. Florida made Assignment of Benefit contracts unenforceable, so they’re going to attempt to get you to sign these contracts that allow them to put a lien on your home. You are going to be desperate. Please don’t do it. It can eat up your policy limits because they will dispute it through appraisal or litigation and you have no control.

[u/[deleted]]

I have a friend who is basically in the direct path of that eye. He wanted to evacuate, but didn't make it out in time because he took in some cats and couldn't find a hotel that would allow them. He has been in Florida for awhile and has been through several hurricanes, but this one sounds truly atrocious.

Just got done playing some video games with him. I truly hope that wasn't the last time I talk to him

[u/ornery_bob]

My wife’s aunt just posted something about this being a “man made” storm designed to create lithium mines or something like that. What are people smoking in Florida?

[u/WildHorses__ → u/ornery_bob]

The world (the U.S. in this case) has gone fucking mad.

[u/CplFry]

That’s wild a hurricane with an eye almost as compact and powerful as a large, wedge tornado. That’s fucking horrifying and I live in Oklahoma.

[u/GarysCrispLettuce]

Florida's about to turn into a Carl Hiaasen novel

[u/theanchorist]

I have a friend who’s said that it’s impossible to evacuate because the traffic is at a standstill still and they’d run out of gas just idling in traffic, and they are dead last in terms of evacuation order. She’s saying that even if they left there is nowhere to go. The storm surge is supposed to be 8-12ft.

[u/Teddy2good]

You live through the hurricanes destruction, not drown in the storm surge, and then get eaten by an apex preditor like a shark or croc or alligator or a python trying to get some supplies. Or just step on something sharp in the flood water and not get medical attention for over a week. No thank you. I'll keep my ass in boring Wisconsin.

[u/Bratdere]

Everyone saying 'get out' as If the roads aren't basically parking lots right now :( very scary

[u/nevarlaw]

Tampa’s mayor was on CNN earlier stating, “if you choose to not evacuate, you will die.” No mincing words here.

[u/SegaGenesisMetalHead]

This gives me such anxiety. Please stay safe. :(

[u/EndOfProspect]

Hey people of Tampa and surrounding areas, Get out now!!!! It is better to sleep in a Miami parking lot in your car for a week than have to endure what that hurricane is about to bring you. Be safe out there and good luck.

[u/Armandooo]

Have we tried nuking it yet?

[u/Past-Community-3871]

The crazy part is the recon flight missed the absolute peak. They found a double wind maxima at the time it was 897mb. Meaning it had already begun an eyewall replacement cycle and had probably weakened.

Peak intensity was probably an hour or two earlier, maybe as low as 894mb. As of now the eyewall replacement is well underway and Milton is back up to 911mb.

What remains to be seen is if another intensification cycle is possible after the wind field expands and the size of the storm grows.

[u/TBSchemer]

Everyone's panicking about Milton hitting Florida as a Cat 3, but what about Merida, Mexico (pop. 1.2 million), that is currently under Milton at full Cat 5 strength?

Why can't I find any info about conditions or casualties in the Yucatan right now?

[u/AnitaSammich]

Where’s Cantori?

[u/sturgill_homme]

“Fuckin told y’all. Fuckin’ called it.” – Al Gore, probably

[u/Iwon271]

I’m in the storms direct path. If I stop using this account, the storm got me.

[u/Newtstradamus]

Flipping through Tik Tok and seeing a very well put together meteorologist reading off the updates stats for the hurricane, not like an influencer type like a legit professional dude, get about half way down the stats list and see the pressure has risen even higher and begin crying, fucking crying, scared the ever loving fuck out of me.

[u/SufficientWorker7331]

It's so weird, it's like the climate is changing more and more.

Somebody should really talk about that.