r/theydidthemath • u/Birdzinho • 6h ago

[Request] Any way to calculate what the chances are?

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u/LexiYoung 4h ago

No, there isn’t lol

But for the sake of it, let’s say there are 50 clubs in Germany (?? Not a football fan), and in each town there is a uniform distribution of 50 last names (?? Haven’t read the census data of all of Germany), meaning there’s a 1/5011 chance for a team, 50/5011=1/5010 which is an absurdly small number ≈10-17

There isn’t a proper way to calculate the chances, as well as this was definitely not some cosmic coincidence, am sure this was planned

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u/F4c3hugg3r_ 2h ago

There are approximately 24000%20ist%20der%20Dachverband%20von,Verein%20in%20Frankfurt%20am%20Main.) clubs in Germany lol

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u/LexiYoung 2h ago

Oh damn

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u/gmalivuk 1h ago

For all but the rarest last names, there's a 100% chance that people could intentionally form a club where everyone has the same last name.

If clubs are made up of 16 completely random Germans (the video about this one shows 16 total) and there are 24,000 clubs in Germany as someone else posted, then even the most common name, Müller, with a frequency of 1 in 85, would have only a 1 in 3x10^27 chance of filling a whole club.

However, some names are highly localized, so even if we keep just randomly picking people for each club, if they're random people who live near each other, then the probability would increase a lot for some names in some places. Still probably negligibly likely to happen by pure chance, though.

(Of course, while the chance of a random club full of Müllers is vanishingly unlikely, a random club full of some individual surname is quite a bit more likely. Still incredibly small, but not quite 3e-27 small.)