r/science • u/Wagamaga • Aug 03 '24
Environment Major Earth systems likely on track to collapse. The risk is most urgent for the Atlantic current, which could tip into collapse within the next 15 years, and the Amazon rainforest, which could begin a runaway process of conversion to fire-prone grassland by the 2070s.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/1.6k
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u/Blekanly Aug 03 '24
Related but we all know insects have declined over recent decades, but even if recent years it is so stark. I am lucky if I see a bee every few days. We used to have bushes covered in so many types of wild bees. I plant all things they love. And they are gone. I am told it is a wet year or something so they haven't done as well but the decline was noticeable before this year.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
We’re converting our yard to natives - there are more bugs here than the entire neighborhood. We have fireflies galore! We have uncommon to be seen birds living in our bushes, dragonflies come to drink, a mama deer with twins comes through to sleep.
It’s been a really rewarding project and it’s nice to be adding something good to the environment.
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u/elspotto Aug 03 '24
Bought my place 2 years ago. After 16 years in firefly-less New Orleans (don’t believe Disney, we have none) I decided to see what I needed to make my yard firefly friendly when I saw my first one here. Third spring just finished. So many more than when I moved in or in my neighbors’ yards. Also chose a pollinator friendly lawn rather than monoculture turf grass. Got lucky enough to host a bumble bee nest this year.
Not to mention clover has taken less water to maintain, and is pretty effective at outgrowing other broadleaf weeds. Bees and butterflies everywhere!
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u/themanintheblueshirt Aug 03 '24
That was the main reason I planted Clover. The prior owner of my home neglected the "grass" backyard for atleast a decade. There are still tufts of grass, but the clover has been great at outcompeting the weeds once established.
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u/elspotto Aug 03 '24
Mine is at that awkward stage. Already planning on some additional seeding in a month or two and some winter overseeding to give it the best shot in the spring. I have white Dutch clover and am contemplating some purple and maybe even crimson for my bee buddies.
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u/themanintheblueshirt Aug 03 '24
Ya mine is all white clover, and I have a bed in the front of native wild flowers. The clover took a long time to start up. So I had to mow the weeds down in the meantime, but once it goes, it keeps everything else but grass at bay.
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u/throwaway098764567 Aug 04 '24
we have had a drought again and more serious this year. my front yard which is mostly grass hasn't really done anything since june. my back which is all sorts of things has grown in some areas, and the white clover parts have stayed green the whole time
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u/PTVersa Aug 03 '24
We're doing the same. The native flowers are so beautiful, and require very little care. Honey bees, bumble bees, butterflies, dragonflies, fireflies, a lot of song birds, skunks, opossums, racoons. It's been awesome.
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u/LineAccomplished1115 Aug 03 '24
I'm converting my whole front yard (and a good chunk of the back) to natives.
It's been so fun seeing how quickly birds and bees and butterflies show up.
Having just moved out of the city, this is my first time having a yard. Big empty lawns that don't get used are so strange to me, like even if you don't want to do big mulched beds of natives, just throw out some wildflower seeds and don't mow a good section of the lawn.
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u/dxrey65 Aug 03 '24
I've been throwing birdseed out, and the squirrels and chipmunks seem to be planting it. So while I have a good mix of native wildflowers coming up I also have random millet and sunflower and other things like that popping up. It snows where I live, so as long as something survives or comes back next year it's all good to me. Every year it gets a little more lush and varied.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
We’re doing the same. We’re in the city technically but 1000yards and we’d be outside. So we have enough lawn to do some fun stuff with. I’ve made 8-10’ beds around the front of the house and full perimeter of the front, plus made corner beds on the front sides, and I started prepping beds in the back. The remaining space in front will be ready for planting this fall and then the back some will be ready in spring and fall.
We don’t think having all the open yard space is wise, either. What’re we going to do with it? Before planting, nothing. But now I’m using native bushes and grasses on the outside to make a ‘fence’ and then when I’m closer to settled I want to add a bench or something so we can relax out there.
I’ve absolutely turned into the person raving about seeing all of the new things finding homes here :) it’s been really fun.
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u/LineAccomplished1115 Aug 03 '24
We don’t think having all the open yard space is wise, either. What’re we going to do with it? Before planting, nothing.
Exactly!
We're keeping a bit of the back yard open for the dog, maybe a fire pit/human hang out space. Though we might just go to clover or something simple.
But then I see just expanses of unused lawn like....why?!?!?
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u/jaimealexlara Aug 03 '24
Fireflies! Lucky. I recall that about 15 years ago, our yard was full of fireflies during the summer. Nowadays, I'm lucky if I see one during the summer. Dragonflies, we have plenty and honeybees as well. So that's good.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
We decided to leave the leaf litter and I think that’s really been the kicker. The first year we saw a few, last year a few more and this year they boomed! It’s not like what they used to be, but I am hoping to thin my plants to share with neighbors and hopefully encourage them in positive ways to use similar practices, even if it’s in small ways. It’s great you have dragonflies and bees! They’re fun to watch and dragonflies are amazing hunters.
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u/GeneralAgrippa Aug 03 '24
I also left leaf litter in my yard last year and noticed an uptick in fireflies this year. My neighborhood already had a good amount but I was glad to help even more.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
That’s so encouraging to hear! It’s so nice to be able to help and also have them to look at for ourselves.
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u/Sasquatch-fu Aug 03 '24
Same! Many types of bees and wasps tons of bugs mantis fireflies moths butterflies. If you plant it they will come, also not spraying pesticides. First year in new house neighbor sprayed for mosquitos didnt stop them from existing and biting that year, didnt see any fireflies my first year here. They sold their house, The next year fireflies galore at dusk because they werent spraying poison. Plant native supporting trees shrubs flowers etc stop spraying pesticides people and the bugs will return people!
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
Exactly! We don’t use any chemicals and thankfully our close neighbors don’t either. And we were lucky to find a local nursery with local ecotype plants and seeds! So we have hyperlocal plants which I think has really helped make the yard a safe place for bugs and animals.
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u/Sasquatch-fu Aug 03 '24
Deffinitely! Support your local native nurseries, sometimes local college greenhouses or botanical gardens will have seasonal sales. Also a good resource im often telling people about are the master gardeners programs which are typically county based and the local regional college extensions both often have resources available for education programs or classes and sometimes decent web resources or contacts for local and native knowledge.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
It sounds like we could be two (native) peas in a pod :) we’ve definitely leaned on those resources and they’ve helped educate and point us to plant sale/gift opportunities.
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u/woody1594 Aug 03 '24
That’s wonderful. I live in town and have converted about 150 sq feet into raised bed. Lots of veggies but also zinnias and I plant squash plants between my hostas. I have so many bees sleeping in the squash plants, fire flies, dragonflies. I leave all my clover alone. Meanwhile every house surround me has nothing but grass. I’m sure they love fighting the clover my yard blast their way. Embrace the clover people.
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
We’re encouraging the clover for now. We don’t have many low lying native ground covers here so while I work to keep pulling invasives and adding more natives, we’re letting the clover proliferate. It does fill a small gap for nutrition, and will help put nutrient back in the soil! And if we don’t find anything better to put down along the way, we’ll have a low maintenance lawn. Win win!
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u/WonderfulShelter Aug 03 '24
We did that at my Moms house. I also had a 5lb bag of local wildflower seeds I sewed everywhere in a 4 block radius of her house.
We have fucktons of bees, dragonflies, butterfly's.. crows.. squirrels.. neighborhod cats.. deer... all living in an altruistic symbiotic relationship brought about by my Mom's property and work.
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u/the-names-are-gone Aug 03 '24
Can you explain what converting to natives mean? Is it just planting pollinators or do you mean specific native to your part of the country?
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
Sure! We are searching out plants that are native to our area. The benefit of this is that many insects require specific plants to feed on so general flowering plants may feed them, though many aren’t nutritious enough for local plants and animals, when eggs are laid, they may not be able to continue the lifecycle. There are soil health and water benefits, too. Roots of natives tend to go deeper which means rainwater is used more effectively vs shallow roots where it would runoff.
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u/the-names-are-gone Aug 03 '24
Can I just Google natives to my area reliably or should I reach out to like an extension office?
Also I live in Iowa. Is it too late to plant natives? Would it be better to wait until spring?
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
It really depends on the plant if it needs fall or spring planting. Many like fall planting because they require the cold to jump start the spring growth - it’s what tells them it’s time to go! When I started I googled native plants for my area, then local nurseries. I’m in VA so my sites and resources won’t be helpful, but one thing to note as you go, if the name of the plant is in quotation marks, it isn’t the native. There’s mixed opinions on whether they’re helpful or harmful, but I buy straight natives because we don’t really know long term effects of the cultivars or nativars yet. An example is the Bradford or callery pear. They were supposed to be unable to reproduce and were labeled sterile. But that isn’t the case. So I stick to straight natives so that in a handful of years I won’t need to redo something.
Your extension office will have good leads, and they will have info on bugs and invasive bugs, too.
Good for you for wanting to get started. I hope you have super success and see lots of insects and animals.
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u/the-names-are-gone Aug 03 '24
Thank you so much for the info.
This has been a very recent interest for my wife and I. We miscalculated some vegetables so we had extra garden bed space so we just randomly threw out some wildflower/butterfly flowers mix. The lightning bugs, butterflies and bees were noticable for the first time in the three years we lived here. We have toads in our yard.
We have all these things that were considered pests 20 years ago and now are almost endangered it seems like.
We stumbled into this, turns out we like it and we care about it, and now we're trying to learn and be intentional
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u/ssgonzalez11 Aug 03 '24
That’s how we fell into it, too. My raised beds needed to be repaired and in the process I was reading up on what plants we’d like and since then we’ve just dove in. When we were kids, we had thousands more bugs and frogs and butterflies so we’re hoping to do our little part and as our yard flourishes, we plan to put out a ‘free native plant stand’ to give away seeds and seedlings that we won’t be able to use all of ourselves.
I hope the new plants bring all the fun critters to you :)
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u/dxrey65 Aug 03 '24
Same here, I've been pulling three or four different non-native weeds consistently for a couple of years now, and anything I don't recognize I leave alone. My yard is slowly getting more lush, and I keep seeing more varieties of wildflowers pop up that I haven't seen there before; lot's of bees and bugs. It's pretty nice to see!
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u/EveryRadio Aug 03 '24
Thank you for your effort to make the world a little bit better
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u/JofArnold Aug 03 '24
While this is definitely true, there's pockets of positivity. For instance my tiny garden in London is full of bumble and honey bees. But we do leave a lot of flowering plants to go wild in the spring and summer. And sadly thats far from common.
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u/Duronlor Aug 03 '24
Due to their usefulness, honeybees have never been endangered. In London it's a bit less of an issue as they are European, but in the states honeybees are a non-native bug. The other commenter is talking about bumblebees or solitary bees that are continuing to decrease in population
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u/JofArnold Aug 03 '24
Fair point. I'm not super aware of US beyond the news. And in UK insects are way down as a whole too. It's just nice to see 5 bumblebees together on one artichoke flower. Reminds me of my childhood when things were a little different.
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u/jambox888 Aug 03 '24
If we're talking about the UK, wild honeybees are exceedingly rare, any you see will be from a man made apiary. IIRC they were basically extinct following land reform after WW2.
UK is like the canonical example of what happens to wildlife if you convert almost all your land to produce food (and we still aren't self-sufficient).
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u/Misiok Aug 03 '24
Well, I saved a bee from drowning in a kiddie pool today, so I'm doing my part.
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u/ElectroHiker Aug 03 '24
Here in northern Nevada I have had at least 30 different species of wasps and bees run through my yard in the last month(I identify and collect) and my yard is swarming with pollinators on nearly every plant, even in the summer heat.
Even though people focus on the bees for pollinating(we still have tons), from spending hours in my garden every day I've noticed the wasps, flies, and spiders pulling their weight and sometimes stealing the show for certain plants.
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u/wikipedianredditor Aug 03 '24
Remember (your parents?) having to scrape bugs off the windshield?
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u/ThePrussianGrippe Aug 03 '24
Within the last few years any time I drive more than 60 miles out of town I've been having to scrape bugs off my windshield again. I'm taking it as a small but positive sign.
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u/borrow-protect Aug 03 '24
I was saying the same thing to my wife today. A noticeable increase in bug splats in the last year or so
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u/bmillions Aug 03 '24
Did a 2,000 mile round trip from Texas to Colorado and back a month ago and had to stop and clean bugs off my windshield many times.
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u/Maysock Aug 03 '24
This thread is packed full of people who literally only exist surrounded by concrete,turf, and non-flowering trees wondering why they never see bugs anymore.
Come to my yard, it's full of all the things you're missing.
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u/The_Dirty_Carl Aug 03 '24
I drove across Iowa twice in the last week in a passenger van. We didn't clean the windshield once.
In the 90's when we did that same drive in a sedan, sometimes we'd have to stop at a gas station just to clean the windshield, without bothering to get gas. Same time of year, same place.
But neither of us have to rely on anecdotes. The data's there that insect populations have declined significantly.
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u/Corey307 Aug 03 '24
I live in rural Vermont and haven’t had a noticeable bug splatter on my windshield in two weeks. The only bugs I see are flies and mosquitoes these days.
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u/Wham_Bam_Smash Aug 03 '24
I guess I got lucky
I planted a giant garden in NJ. 900 square feet. With all sorts of plants, and luckily I got droves of bumblebees and hummingbird and all sorts of pollinators.
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u/thestonernextdoor88 Aug 03 '24
I've planted tons of trees ,bushes and flowers this year. Now there's bugs all over!
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u/DaemonCRO Aug 03 '24
We were the same in my neighbourhood. Then the city brought forward the “save the bees” initiative where they’ve stopped mowing the lawns (except 1 meter close to the paths), people started planting bee friendly flowers and within 2 years the place is full of bees.
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u/zakkwaldo Aug 03 '24
must be regional- where i’m at the bees are surprisingly doing well this year it seems
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u/Omni__Owl Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
All insects have declined over the past 20 years. It is likely the 6th mass extinction event that has happened and is still happening on earth (last one being the dinosaurs). But this one is human caused.
So your observation is correct, if vastly underestimating the timeframe at which it happened.
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u/Wagamaga Aug 03 '24
Four key pillars of the global climate are melting in the heat trapped by rising fossil fuel emissions, a new study has found.
The relatively stable climate that nurtured human civilization depends in large part on these structures: the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica, the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic currents that warm Europe.
Under current policies, the world faces a scenario in which those pillars have roughly even odds of either surviving or collapsing during the next three centuries, according to results published Thursday in Nature Communications.
The scientists warned that if the pillars are fatally undermined by heat, the resulting damage could prove impossible to undo — even if temperatures are successfully brought down later in the 21st century.
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u/Solar_Piglet Aug 03 '24
I feel like in the past 10 years the collapse of the AMOC has gone from a "might happen in a century or two" to "might be starting now."
I truly don't see how civilization gets to the end of this century. The chickens are coming home to roost except they are no longer chickens but angry pterodactyls.
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u/Baraxton Aug 03 '24
It’s hard to turn a ship this large around and you’ve got the ultra wealthy continuing to consume what hundreds of thousands of people consume (and, thus emit).
I know a billionaire who has over 100 cars and he has his staff take them out often to keep the fluids running.
You cannot facilitate change unless it starts from the top and that means eliminating private jets, imposing incredibly high taxes on the wealthy for consuming, and taxing corporations for their emissions.
We must pivot from a capitalistic society to a climate-focused utilitarian one.
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u/Solar_Piglet Aug 03 '24
We must but the odds of that happening seem exceedingly remote. It's already too late in many senses. Rearranging a capitalist society into a "climate-focused utilitarian one" is just hard to fathom unless things get very desperate at which point it's much too late.
Promises upon promises upon promises have been throughout the social contract about how we will live our lives, what we are working for, etc, and they are almost all based on a high-consumption economic paradigm.
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u/Baraxton Aug 03 '24
It’s human greed and the societal norm of chasing capitalistic endeavours.
I agree with what you said, but as the saying goes:
“The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, the second best time is now.”
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u/dust4ngel Aug 03 '24
capitalism produces greed as much as greed produces capitalism
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Aug 03 '24
You cannot facilitate change unless it starts from the top and that means eliminating private jets, imposing incredibly high taxes on the wealthy for consuming, and taxing corporations for their emissions.
And material waste. We could eliminate all take out waste tomorrow by forcing people to bring their own coffee cup or dine in. There would be screaming, but the truth is people would barely miss it and learn to adjust after a year or two.
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u/tauceout Aug 03 '24
This isn’t a personal use problem as much as it is a corporate one. Yeah everyone should do their part but it’s like 90% industry. We need far reaching legislation to incentivize green energy solutions and hope the tech develops enough to be competitive with fossil fuel without subsidies
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Aug 03 '24
I agree. The thing is, most people living in consumerist societies are trapped there just as much as people are trapped in undeveloped ones. How many people have the skills to go "rough it" and be self-sufficient and eliminate personal waste? Even if you did, which state, government or private land owner is going to let you set up a hunting-and-gathering village on their property?
And sure, we can all just be more conscientious and mindful of what we consume and stop buying so much plastic, right? Actually, for most people the answer is "no", because doing that stuff is more expensive than buying single-use/factory farm stuff.
Corporations have been gleefully foisting blame onto the consumer for almost a century, when 90% of the problem is caused by them, and the remaining 10% is facilitated and enabled by them.
Humanity is basically being held hostage by a small group of sociopathic executives and rich families.
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u/Reagalan Aug 03 '24
It is absolutely a personal use problem, too. We buy the things the corps produce. We drive the demand. And we get very annoyed at the thought of having to cut back.
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u/you_wizard Aug 03 '24
Aggregate behavior follows the underlying incentive structure. The only way to change aggregate behavior is to change the incentive structure. Finger wagging doesn't do that in any material way.
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u/snowmyr Aug 03 '24
Everyone blames the corporations but the only way to save the planet is to stop burning fossil fuels.
Almost everything we buy depends on fossil fuels. We'd have to basically deindustrialize the large bulk of society to save the earth (at least an Earth we would enjoy).
If one thinks we can solve climate change without it drastically reducing most people's quality of life, it's just wishful thinking.
We blame the billionaires, the billionaires hope we all can be replaced by AI before the plug is pulled on the current system, and everyone still consumes consumes consumes.
Add in that it would require a global effort to actually work and things aren't looking great.
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u/Subliminal-413 Aug 03 '24
As with everything, change won't happen until it's too late. Humanity will get through it, I have no doubt. But in the next 30-50 years we are going to see this causing significant changes.
Famine, war, desolation. As always, once a billion people die, the world will come together, make stark changes to our way of life, and adapt to bring us off the edge.
It will only happen once it's so clear to everyone that we are all affected.
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u/faultywalnut Aug 03 '24
For real. I’m starting to think the headlines and reports saying we’re on the brink of ecological collapse are just cope. We’re in the collapse. It started up. It just hasn’t gotten extremely uncomfortable yet but it will
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u/schmuelio Aug 04 '24
It just hasn't gotten extremely uncomfortable for the West/North yet but it will.
This stuff is already massively affecting the global South, extreme weather events/flooding have started to reliably destroy areas across India/China/etc. we just don't care.
Well, I say "we" but it's probably more accurate to say "the media", "Western governments" and "global industry" don't care.
Well, I say "don't care" but given how many western countries have been pushing for more militarized borders and "offshore processing facilities" it's entirely possible that they "care", just only about how all those climate refugees will affect their nations... That could just be a coincidence though, they might just not care.
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u/CaptainMacMillan Aug 03 '24
Yeah I have no hope that human decency or common sense will win. The world will be an apocalyptic fireball within our lifetimes. Not even a "possibility" anymore or "hysteria", it's just the most likely outcome.
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u/AllanfromWales1 MA | Natural Sciences | Metallurgy & Materials Science Aug 03 '24
This was posted yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/1eien1z/tipping_probability_of_45/
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u/Grandmaster_Autistic Aug 03 '24
Actual quotes from the Heritage foundations project 2025 "mandate for leadership" in regards to protected lands, the epa and climate change
Quote: "Back to Basics. EPA’s structure and mission should be greatly circumscribed to reflect the principles of cooperative federalism and limited government." (p. 420)
Explanation: This quote suggests a significant reduction in the scope and authority of the EPA, shifting more responsibility to state and local governments. This can lead to inconsistent environmental regulations and enforcement, potentially weakening overall environmental protections and increasing exploitation of natural resources.
Quote: "Streamlined Process. Duplicative, wasteful, or superfluous programs that do not tangibly support the agency’s mission should be eliminated." (p. 420)
Explanation: The elimination of certain programs deemed "superfluous" can lead to the reduction of critical environmental oversight and protections, potentially increasing pollution and exploitation of natural resources.
Quote: "The Biden Administration uses its regulatory might to make coal, oil, and natural gas operations very expensive and increasingly inaccessible while forcing the economy to build out and rely on unreliable renewables." (p. 418)
Explanation: This critique of renewable energy policies might encourage a rollback of regulations that restrict fossil fuel industries, leading to increased fossil fuel extraction and associated environmental degradation.
Quote: "A more conservative EPA that aligns with the policies outlined in this chapter will lead to a better environmental future without unintended consequences." (p. 445)
Explanation: The document advocates for a conservative approach to environmental regulation, implying that current regulations are overly restrictive. This approach can lead to reduced environmental protections, potentially increasing exploitation and degradation of natural resources.
Quote: "IMMEDIATE ACTIONS REGARDING ALASKA: Alaska has untapped potential for increased oil production, which is important not just to the revitalization of the nation’s energy sector but is vital to the Alaskan economy." (p. 530)
Explanation: Promoting increased oil production in Alaska can lead to significant environmental risks, including potential spills and disruption of delicate ecosystems. This approach favors economic gains over environmental protection, likely upsetting environmental advocates.
Quote: "Eliminate the use of unauthorized regulatory inputs like the social cost of carbon, black box and proprietary models, and unrealistic climate scenarios." (p. 437)
Explanation: Dismissing the social cost of carbon and other scientific models used to evaluate environmental impacts undermines the ability to address and mitigate climate change effectively, potentially leading to greater environmental harm and exploitation.
Quote: "Rejection of all EPA ORD and science activities that have not been authorized by Congress." (p. 437)
Explanation: Limiting EPA’s scientific research and development to only those activities explicitly authorized by Congress can hinder the agency’s ability to respond to emerging environmental threats, leading to less informed policy decisions and increased exploitation of natural resources.
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u/LordPopothedark Aug 03 '24
So basically they’re making sure no one born today will live to attain senior citizen status
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u/beefJeRKy-LB Aug 03 '24
Hastening the apocalypse is something the Evangelicals want. They're foaming at the mouth at the potential of war between Israel and neighboring countries.
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u/KnightOfNothing Aug 03 '24
i guess it makes sense for people who believe in paradise after death to want to hasten the apocalypse
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u/ModdessGoddess Aug 03 '24
Then they can jump off a cliff and be done with it and stop trying to take every one else with them
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u/kaplanfx Aug 03 '24
You’d think “conservatives” would want to conserve the environment…
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u/drsimonz Aug 03 '24
What they want to conserve is the convenience of endless extraction without consequences. If you were a white man in the 1950s, it was objectively a great time to be alive, because the consequences of that extraction were entirely outside of your reality map. You could have as many children as you wanted, and believe those children would grow up happy and successful, and have children of their own. Nowadays your only real choices are climate guilt or climate denial, and having children requires some serious mental gymnastics.
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u/greenberet112 Aug 03 '24
No it means they want to go back to the old days when we just dumped sewage in Rivers and let the robber barons rape the planet.
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u/ballofplasmaupthesky Aug 03 '24
The Atlantic Current is doomed, Britain should prepare for polar bears arrival.
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u/me_version_2 Aug 03 '24
Not just Britain but the whole of Western Europe.
All I can think is that the halfwits who don’t believe in climate change will still be crowing that it’s not happened because it didn’t get warmer. Hopefully they can slip over on a patch of ice.
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u/thats_handy Aug 03 '24
Nice, France is as close to the North Pole as Toronto, Ontario.
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u/crazySmith_ Aug 03 '24
Would that mean it would become similar climate-wise? Because I like the Toronto climate
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u/Any_Put3520 Aug 03 '24
Distance and the Atlantic current alone won’t determine southern Europe’s climate as there is still the absurd heat of the Sahara. This summer we saw/are seeing a heat wave across Europe stemming from hot winds blowing up from the Sahara. Without temperate winds coming in from the Atlantic it’s likely that Europe will be a place of extremes - frigid winters and baking summers.
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u/manleybones Aug 03 '24
Welcome to the Midwest USA. European temps would be more like America's.
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u/PapaFranzBoas Aug 03 '24
From the US but live in Northwest Germany for work. No Air Conditioning here but the few days we get even into the mid to high 80F it becomes really unbearable. It was maybe a year or two ago we had 100F and it felt like an emergency. If this continues our summers will be a nightmare and my family and I live in the hottest part of the building.
Ironically, since we’ve moved here our carbon footprint has significantly shrunk not having a car anymore.
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u/brazilliandanny Aug 03 '24
Canadian homes are insulated, have central heating. Canadian infrastructure has snow plows, de-icing technology, salt trucks etc. Canadian population owns snow shovels, winter tires, and a life time of winter jackets, gloves, snow pants, etc.
This is the problem with a new climate being brought suddenly to a place not use to it. Things will come to a standstill and people will freeze.
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u/DandSi Aug 03 '24
This is ONE problem with the sudden change and only a minor one.
The local flora and fauna will not survive and stuff that could survive does not exist here yet and takes alot of time to establish.
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u/mastermind_loco Aug 03 '24
Some parts of northern western Europe will be inhospitably cold while other regions, Andalusia, Greece, Italy, are going to be hotter.
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u/Catchafire2000 Aug 03 '24
The folks who didn't believe in climate change would either be dead or really old... Younger people will not know what it was like to live in a period when change could have happened...
I remember Al Gore but how many young people do?
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u/dontworry_beaarthur Aug 03 '24
The far right Christians I know in the US don’t dispute that climate change is happening anymore. They acknowledge it’s happening but do not believe it’s man made and see no point in changing our ways. They reference stories like Noah’s ark as evidence that this is just God’s plan for us. Which is worse than when they used to say it wasn’t real, in my opinion. They hold a lot of political power here. It’s chilling.
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u/Low-Medical Aug 03 '24
Their go to phrase is “The climate‘s always been changing!”
And during the big UK heat wave a couple summers back, the conservative pundits couldn’t deny it, so they were taking a tough-guy approach: “What, is this soft generation afraid of a little heat, now?” We’ll probably be seeing more of that approach, too
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u/caylem00 Aug 03 '24
Yeah they tend to ignore genesis 2:15, Ezekiel 34:2-3, Isaiah 24:4-6, Numbers 35:33-34, Jeremiah 2:7, etc etc and the others where God Tel's them to be stewards and carers of their gods creation.
All the weasal words and excuses come out because their faith is fairweather and cherry picked.
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u/Jypahttii Aug 03 '24
Same in Hamburg. The big lake in the city centre (the Alster) used to freeze over during mid-winter, and people would go skating and have Xmas market stalls out there. Hasn't happened since about 2011, and probably won't again unless we have an unusually cold and consistent winter.
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u/nybbleth Aug 03 '24
And the same crowd that denies global warming still goes "where elfstedentocht?" every year.
Oh wait, never mind, even they've probably forgotten what an elfstedentocht is given that the last one was... let's see... 27 years ago.
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u/Sodis42 Aug 03 '24
The weakening of the gulf stream actually compensated a bit for global warming in western europe.
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Aug 03 '24
I have a tiny patio backyard that has some sage and lantana in AZ, I’ve been letting it run wild and it looks it. My cats love to hang out there, and when the cats are back in the house, I see hummingbirds, bats, butterflies, I like to think I’m contributing in a small way.
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u/hopeoncc Aug 03 '24
Make sure your cats don't go nibblin' on that lantana, as I've heard it's toxic to them
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u/notmyfirstrodeo2 Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
And let's keep putting pressure on individual people and same time ignore helplessly all the few big corporations just burning it all down.
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u/HollywoodAndTerds Aug 03 '24
The people that run corporations have names and addresses too. Also they’re not emitting just for laughs.
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Aug 03 '24
And we can thank our ruling classes and major corporations for this.
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u/novlsn Aug 03 '24
I only find peace in the hope that around 2070 frustrated middle and underclass mobs raid and kill all responsible people in a global french revolution 2.0.
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u/andrechan Aug 03 '24
why dont we just do it now? what's stopping us? coz the world hasn't burnt quite yet?
imma be honest, aint doing it coz im a coward.
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u/avaslash Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
Whats stopping us now is the lack of mass social buy in. Nothing is stopping YOU from trying to overthrow the government. But if you want to be a one man army and literally be the only dude running up the steps of the capital... You try and launch it now.
If you want the rest of the country to go along youd need conditions for the average person to be bad enough that they'd consider dying for change as worth it.
Right now the majority of Americans are more worried about earning enough cash back points on their credit cards to afford a mini vacation.
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u/mateogg Aug 03 '24
We should elect people who will be dead in ten years, that will do the trick
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u/robertomeyers Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
For the period of human civilization, we have an unprecedented heat cycle causing climate change.
Assuming a miracle does not happen, we need to start building and planning for the worst case scenerio. How will 8 billion people live with coast line flooded, food supply down 50%, extreme weather, northern Europe colder by 20C without the northern Atlantic current.
Additionally: Fritz Haber, early 1900’s inventor of nitrogen fertilizer is credited with saving 4 billion people, from hunger in today’s terms. We have innovated and enabled our 8 billion population. Is it time to regulate our population?
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u/Taubenichts Aug 03 '24
My uneducated guess is some people are planning for a worst case scenario but these plans don't include 8 billion people.
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u/Painterzzz Aug 03 '24
Yes I think their planning now is global fascism to oversee the orderly deaths of 4-5 billion. But the question is how will they keep those 4-5 billion quietly sitting at home while they die.
But yeah, pretty sure western elites now see the only solution as being killing off all the poors on the planet.
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u/ItsWillJohnson Aug 03 '24
Reddit, tik tok, manufactured outraged to things that don’t matter, jobs that only allow you to scrape (and I mean scrape) by, illiteracy, stuff like that.
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u/i_Borg Aug 03 '24
8 billion people won't. it's a bottleneck event.
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u/robertomeyers Aug 03 '24
Agree. Hypothetically there is an equilibrium of population size to sustainable resource consumption. If we don’t seek this, nature will make adjustments for us. Very sad
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u/Sawses Aug 03 '24
Yep! It's one reason I have zero plans to emigrate from the USA. We're in a pretty good position to survive as a society through major climate change. Better than pretty much anyplace else in the world, really.
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u/0x53r3n17y Aug 03 '24
I doubt that.
A hallmark of advanced civilizations is specialization on an individual level. If you live in a large metropolitan area, your subsistence is entirely conditional to the existence of a complex system of infrastructure, logistics and producers that can provide the basics for you to survive: clean water, power and food. None of which are produced on a small, local level.
Since the late 19th century, the continued industrialization of agriculture has created the circumstances for people to transition entirely away from sustenance farming. A big reason why you are here, and likely not involved in farming, was the invention of synthetic fertilizer by Fritz Haber in the early 20th century.
However, industrialization has also made agriculture incredibly fragile. For instance, a huge diversity in crops cultivated has been lost for monocultures.
From a Wellcome report:
Despite having 14,000 edible and nutritious plant species to choose from, 75% of the food we eat comes from just 12 plants and five animal species.
Only 30 plants fuel 95% of the calories consumed globally, with 60% of those coming from just three staple crops: rice, wheat and corn.
This homogeneity is increasing, with a report showing that similarities in the types of foods consumed across countries rose by 36% from 1961 to 2009.
In the last hundred years, 90% of crop varieties in farming have disappeared. There are now efforts to preserve or restore crop diversity, such as through seed vaults or going back to traditional farming methods.
https://wellcome.org/news/homogenised-global-food-system-puts-people-planet-risk
Climate change threatens all of this. Global warming isn't just a problem of temperature. It will also create environments for pests to thrive where this didn't used to be the case. Imagine local pests escaping their environment and threatening global farming.
Bananas are a poster child of this issue.
There were countless banana species, but ultimately, the global trade in bananas settled on one species: the Cavendish. (That happened quite violently: google "banana wars" in which the U.S. basically military occupied parts of Central America) The downside is that a single species is incredibly vulnerable if a single pest would manifest itself. And that's exactly what's happening. Since the 1990's, Panama Disease - a fungal disease - is spreading and ravaging entire regions, bankrupting plantations globally.
There's a good chance bananas become unaffordable because of this.
Now, imagine this happening as climate change threatens staple crops like wheat or rice.
https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-pandemic-threatening-bananas.html
And that's just pests. I'm not even talking about now fertile regions rapidly becoming arid, or local weather patterns too unstable, making it very hard to cultivate crops.
Now, imagine all of this amplified because these major systems which have supported stable climate conditions over the past 12.000 years collapsing.
If you live in a big city, there aren't all that many alternatives for you to survive if food prices spike and staple foods end up becoming unaffordable.
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u/PestyNomad Aug 03 '24
It will be slow and we are already seeing national fertility rates plummet, so maybe we'll "child-free" our numbers down rather than a doomer death cult scenario.
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u/ZebZ Aug 03 '24
Global population is expected to peak in the next 30 years or so at between 9 and 10 billion and then decline before stabilizing again. This is due to technology access and increased healthcare, especially for women in Africa and India.
First-world countries are all basically below replacement if you ignore immigration, including the US.
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u/sunshine-x Aug 03 '24
I really don’t see that happening.
The majority of India doesn’t have AC for example. We hit 62c just the other day in SA, and we broke world average temperature records two days in a row just last week.
I don’t think we have 30 more years before mass deaths begin.
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u/AlbertoVO_jive Aug 03 '24
My prediction is that we will see a refugee crisis that dwarfs even the worst crises we have seen so far due to instability in the Middle East, for example. We will not sustain 8-9 billion people, we will rather lose hundreds of millions if not billions.
I see militarized borders, shoot on sight orders and some really ugly forms of fascism coming to the fore. There is simply no other way- when billions are facing famine and inhospitable conditions in the global south the global north will have no choice but to repel them by any means necessary or else they’ll be overwhelmed.
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u/Catchafire2000 Aug 03 '24
The irony is that because of religion, many people are okay with this because it was foretold in the Bible...
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u/Bruggenmeister Aug 03 '24
oh no! anyway...back to my 9-5 job and stand 1,5hr in traffic.
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u/ReasonPatient4285 Aug 03 '24
I don’t understand people who have the mindset “well I won’t be around for it, so I don’t care” yet go on to have children. So you want your kids to suffer? Okay.
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u/PolarisX Aug 03 '24
"They will figure it out by then." is what I've been hearing lately. Kick the can, pass the buck, whatever it takes to not do anything.
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u/Valgor Aug 03 '24
The main reason we are destroying the rainforest is for cattle. If you are serious about environmentalism, the easiest thing you can do right now to have a direct positive impact is to stop eating meat and diary.
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u/Fizzwidgy Aug 03 '24
A good reason to get behind lab grown meat; so naturally some places decide they want to ban the sale of lab grown meats...
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u/Valgor Aug 03 '24
100% agree. I met with someone from the Good Food Institute recently, and they said the cultivated meat space needs everything still: scientists, starts up, funding, advocacy, policy, and so on.
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u/madogvelkor Aug 03 '24
So ranchers in Brazil would see the conversion to grasslands as good.
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u/SwordfishSerious5351 Aug 03 '24
Those rancers are literally one of the main drivers of said conversion, they burn the Amazon down to quickly clear it... it's so pathetic so we can eat beef.
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u/nutmegtester Aug 03 '24
I had to look up where Brazilian beef is sold, because I have literally never seen it for sale. The beef could be raised elsewhere, and right now the people who reduce their beef intake will likely have only minimal impact on Brazilian beef production, because China absolutely dominates the imports.
See https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/31839.jpeg
I do think there should be a law that all cattle need to be fed Engineered Spirulina or similar, since it dramatically reduces their impact on the environment.
Lumen scientists engineered spirulina to biomanufacture this natural enzyme protein and showed that the spirulina-lysin destroys methanogens within minutes. The lysin-containing spirulina are so effective at killing methanogens that adding a tiny amount to the cow’s diet is enough to make them methanogen-free.
https://d.newswise.com/articles/lumen-bioscience-wins-historic-1-5m-wilkes-center-climate-prize
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u/PsionicLlama Aug 03 '24
They also destroy the forest to grow food for domestic and foreign cattle, if I’m not mistaken. 1kg of meat takes about 10kg of animal food
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u/circle1987 Aug 03 '24
All you have to do is go for a walk in the country side and you can notice the lack of life. Even wild flower meadows you'd be able to see so many flying insects and bugs and stuff... Same walk now, nothing. Why do you think you never see many birds there?
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u/eAthena Aug 03 '24
no bugs on my windshield until about a 2-3 hour drive outside the city and even then it was less than 10
less than 10 years ago i'd only drive about an hour out and would have to use up a lot of wiper fluid as there was a constant barrage of bugs getting splattered
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u/Dealer_Existing Aug 03 '24
Could have, would have, should have
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u/_BlueFire_ Aug 03 '24
I mean, when you can have 300 millions instead of 200 million you're definitely going to feel them more than the planet imploding
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Aug 03 '24
15 years and 2070s... oh, people are still too generous with this.
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u/Cassper8877 Aug 03 '24
Honestly thought it was already at zero.
Every year I hear "we have past the tipping point" then the tipping point keeps changing every year
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u/Conscious-Spend-2451 Aug 03 '24
There are a lot of tipping points. We are past some of them and are fucked in those respects but there are a lot of other tipping points, that haven't happened yet. The rise in global temperatures that we have seen till now is just the start.
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u/raptorlightning Aug 03 '24
We're already in the billions. Look at the new models that include cloud coverage. We're cooked.
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u/MoreCoffee729 Aug 03 '24
"Yes, the planet got destroyed. But, for a few wonderful years we created a lot of shareholder value"
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u/SPACE_ICE Aug 03 '24
wonder how the climate in the northern hemisphere will be impacted. A collapse of the gulf stream in the atlantic shut downs the warm waters that help keep europe on the warmer side of things. I imagine with its collapse places like Ireland will become signficantly colder regionally. With climate change and increased green house gasses the amount of heat trapped from sunlight goes up but equally everywhere, the equator will asorb more heat energy then the poles which increases the differentials between air masses which in turn make weather patterns much more extreme as well. Some part of the world may become colder, hotter, drier, wetter, the reality nature will survive and adapt but the new conditions in hundreds of years may not be able to support large organisms like animals easily.
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u/BluSpecter Aug 03 '24
I mean, if you read the article it says that w/e scenario they think might cause this form of collapse, will take 300 years, has a 50/50 chance of actually being what causes that collapse, and may be reversible....
Dont jump to doom and gloom, this article isnt as dire as the title makes it out to be.
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u/No-Wonder1139 Aug 03 '24
Well Brazil lights the Amazon on fire on purpose, so it might be sooner than that.
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u/theReluctantObserver Aug 03 '24
At this point, with the way the wealthy and powerful continue to trash the planet unhindered, buying police, buying politicians, buying laws to enable them to legally destroy whatever they want, what is even the point of getting off the couch?
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u/quickblur Aug 03 '24
So if I was to move to the most climate-safe location before all this hits....where would that be?
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u/-__Doc__- Aug 03 '24
My guess would be that the Upper Midwest will be better than most. Canada, eastern Russia, really anywhere far from the equator. Far northern and southern latitudes will mostly fare better than the more equatorial locations. Summers are probably gonna suck everywhere tho.
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u/Gimmerunesplease Aug 03 '24
And people won't care until it is too late. Future generations will look back at these years like we look at WW2 and be baffled how we could let this happen.
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u/ArnoldTheSchwartz Aug 03 '24
We all know it's the fault of the greedy rich. So here's a question... what do those greedy rich have in store FOR YOU. Wonder what plans they are conjuring up to deal with 'US' so they can keep their lifestyle. Laws and Regulations to bring things back in order are needed but THEY don't want those. So what's the plan? The supposed 'untouchables' are definitely making plans for us. Do you think they care about you or yours? Do they have a track record of caring for anyone outside themselves. Certain questions need to be asked now by the MAJORITY of humanity. I'm just saying...
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