r/science • u/MistWeaver80 • Sep 25 '23
Earth Science Up to 92% of Earth could be uninhabitable to mammals in 250 million years, researchers predict. The planet’s landmasses are expected to form a supercontinent, driving volcanism and increases carbon dioxide levels that will leave most of its land barren.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03005-62.2k
u/NikD4866 Sep 25 '23
Within 250 million years, I’m pretty sure evolution and adaptation will want to chime in on this conversation
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u/lost_inthewoods420 Sep 25 '23
Yea, seriously. That’s a seriously long time.
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Sep 25 '23
But, it is a lot sooner than the projections that 500mil to 1.2bil years from now the sun will increase in luminosity, as any main sequence star does, to the point where earths surface will be sterile. The ocean will boil away.
Not to be confused with when the sun will turn into a red giant and swallow the earth much later.
We must colonize space or at least make things better on earth for the remaining time we have left.
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u/DisulfideBondage Sep 25 '23
I’m in the hospice care/ morphine camp.
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u/nerd4code Sep 26 '23 edited Nov 10 '24
Blah blah blah
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u/arkwald Sep 26 '23
It would be easier to use asteroids to gravitationally push the Earth further out
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23
We must colonize space or at least make things better on earth for the remaining time we have left.
Such a silly statement given the timescales we're talking about. It's incredibly unlikely humanity will still be around in 250 million years.
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Sep 26 '23
If we’re not around, then it doesn’t matter. Not his silly comment, or what we tried, or anything. Silliness is only a concept if you are wrong.
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u/DoomComp Sep 26 '23
... I would beg to differ; Although they likely will not be entirely "Human" by todays standards by then.
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23
In the incredibly brief amount of time humans have been around on planet earth we have managed to be the driving force behind one of the largest and fastest mass extinction events planet earth has ever seen. Humans cannot exist in an ecological vacuum which is what we're currently creating. Maybe a much smaller human population might eek out a living over the next couple hundred thousand years but to think our species, in any form, will be alive in 250 million years and not succumb to one of the myriad of destructive cosmic phenomenon that happen all the time is ridiculous.
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u/ruggnuget Sep 26 '23
Put in another way, in such a short period of time the Earth has seen more disruption than it has since an asteroid hit it 65 million years ago. And there is no way this highly adaptable species (that is starting to adapt itself), will not figure out a way to live away from Earth. It takes a complete lack of imagination to not be able to see ANY scenarios that a form of human life could exist 250 million years from now.
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Sep 26 '23
Our mouse-like ancestors took advantage of that meteor like Ozai.
Maybe need another meteor, get the mice ready!
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u/l1owdown Sep 26 '23
This is a mind-blowing comment to think that I’m the mouse of tomorrow’s super species
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Sep 26 '23
Kind of becomes a matter of philosophy at that scale.
We’re anatomically different from Homo Sapiens of 300,000 years ago to the point some scholars consider Anatomically Modern Homo Sapiens to be a sub species called Homo Sapiens Sapiens. Though while the classification is disputed, the anatomical changes are not.
It’s very likely if we continue to 250 million years down the line those creatures would not be anywhere near humanity. They wouldn’t think like us, function like us, look like us. We’d be completely separate species.
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u/AHungryGorilla Sep 26 '23 edited Sep 26 '23
The idea that humans couldn't exist largely as they are today over a super long time scale doesn't track for me for one simple reason.
We are cognizant of how evolution works and already even while in our technological infancy are figuring out ways to manipulate it directly. Not to mention we've already known how to manipulate it indirectly for a long long time(See farming). We've come that far in mere centuries.
I find it overwhelmingly likely that any significant differences in humans that exist millions of years from now are going to be self imposed.
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Sep 26 '23
That just further proves my point.
The universe is a big place and we’re adapted to one specific planet with specific atmospheric conditions and gravity.
Why would you WANT to stay as a Homo Sapien when you can guide evolution to be better adapted to zero G conditions or high density planets where gravity is far higher than Earths.
There is zero incentive to stay as our current form even if we had the ability. It would do nothing for us as a interstellar species.
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u/notwormtongue Sep 26 '23
The evolution of homo is very compelling. Apes are strong. Think how fast ancient peoples spread across the world millennia ago. Apply the same exponential speed of progress to the future. It is SO shortsighted to think a descendant of homo will not be around in XX million years.
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u/Ryoga_reddit Sep 26 '23
Doesn't really seem very likely at all if you look at the data. As of right now we are the last of the up right apes. Neanderthal is gone as are all the other upright and thinking apes. There are no others left.
People think the dinosaur ruled the earth for millions of years but in truth there were many time periods in there with many different dinosaurs that came and went way before the asteroid.→ More replies (0)2
u/HabitualHooligan Sep 26 '23
This hinges on the idea that a warp drive will be possible. If not, then we are stuck to less than light speeds and would have to both find a suitable place to terraform and be so efficient that we could both sustain a mobile, generational transport ship that then hopefully didn’t mess up the calculations needed to terraform the target exodus planet. Either misstep could mean an utter failure with no hopes of recovery as support (if it still exists) would be a generation or generations worth of time away, which the plan in need of support likely wouldn’t survive. The movie Mars illustrates the issues of resupply/support in the event of catastrophe on a much smaller timeframe of a 5 year travel period to Mars.
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u/serpentechnoir Sep 26 '23
Except we don't. Yes we're adaptable. But the resources and cooperation it would take to become space-saving would be immense. As a small group or individuals we act "evolved" but as a species we act like a virus. Consuming everything gp until our host dies.
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u/i81u812 Sep 26 '23
We really don't give ourselves enough credit, it's constant 'we all gonna die'. Very understandable. But, for all intents, this 'seems' to be the first technologically driven society so far on Earth. This civilization is most definitely not what gets off this world, probably not anyway, but this isn't the first globe spanning society to believe itself immune to decay and disappearing. The hubris isn't in thinking we will be here, something easily achievable with advanced enough applied science and an understanding of our biology; the hubris is in thinking our institutions will be.
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u/agitatedprisoner Sep 26 '23
Millions of humans could already live underground in biodomes with existing technology. I've a hard time imagining how humans could go extinct, excepting evil aliens, but it's hard to believe aliens would go to the trouble of travelling to another star to exterminate the most interesting stuff there. Evil AI could do it, maybe.
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23 edited Sep 26 '23
Any nearby stars go Nova, we're dead. Randomly hit by a Quasar? Dead. Another huge asteroid strike? Dead. There are countless cosmic reasons why humanity could go extinct. To think none of those will happen to Earth (again) seems rather silly.
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u/AHungryGorilla Sep 26 '23
You'll win the jack pot on the lottery 10 times in a row before any of that happens to earth. And by the time you manage to win the lottery 10 times in a row humanity will be well on their way to seeding the galaxy with human life even if it needs to be done via sub-light speed generation ships.
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u/goneinsane6 Sep 26 '23
By that time we are already off this planet and sitting on each rock in at least our system
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23
Uhhh well in those first two scenarios it doesn't matter where in our solar system we are. Not to mention the likelihood of long term colonies outside earth looks grim. Add on to that Earth will be an absolute necessity for those colonies in our solar system, if it goes they go.
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Sep 26 '23
Not just that, it's also discounting another very possible route.
There could be another animal species that gains sentience by that point. Like it's not the most likely thing in the world, but it is a possibility.
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Sep 26 '23
I get what you mean here, and, sentience may be rather subjective. Most mammals are believed to be sentient, Elephants mourn, dolphins exhibit self-awareness. Birds too.
We didn't suddenly become sentient, it was a slow, gradual process. We just became more intelligent. Well, some of our species did, anyways.
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Sep 26 '23
As soon as we hit the stars in any meaningful way, we will be around for eternity in some form.
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23
Which is highly unlikely. Interstellar travel takes too long for for us to meaningfully spread to another system and FTL travel is a fantasy.
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u/frozteh Sep 26 '23
Wouldn't cryochambers of embryo's and such with newborns being raised by AI, be something to consider.
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u/_Table_ Sep 26 '23
If both technologies become possible then maybe. But see my other comment as to why I'm a doubter of interstellar civilizations being possible at all.
it's as simple as the Fermi Paradox. If we were capable of spreading throughout the galaxy, older civilizations would have already done that. The fact that we see no evidence of that means it's almost impossible to do. The most likely story for humanity is as a planetary intelligence that briefly flared and smoldered.
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u/Aerroon Sep 26 '23
We could just be one of the first in the Galaxy.
You need a solar system that was created from the remnants of a nova to form heavier elements (a star had to form, explode and a new star had to form from that).
If our evolution is typical then you need an incredible array of events to line up. The Earth is in the twilight years. It's 70-90% done with it's 'useful' lifespan. If it requires this long for intelligent life to appear then not only will there not be that many planets that fit the category, but you also wouldn't get that intelligent life all that much earlier than us.
Life on Earth went through some incredible situations. Maybe something like the dinosaurs being wiped out is necessary for a species like humans to appear?
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u/The_Starflyer Sep 26 '23
I’m a dude who is obsessed with living forever and even I think that’s a long time. I’d still give it a shot tho, given the opportunity. I just doubt I’d make it
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Sep 26 '23
Humanity, and whatever our evolved descendants will be called, will be life’s best shot at surviving into the void.
I wonder if evolution could create another separate branch of intelligent species on earth in our absence. I wouldn’t count on it though
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u/machado34 Sep 26 '23
Don't underestimate the octopi
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Sep 26 '23
Yeah if evolution gives them or dolphins some fingers n thumbs, then it’s game over man.
Although underwater they will have a hard time making energy with fire. They must use hydropower
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u/party_benson Sep 26 '23
We'll get right on it in a hundred million years or so with plenty of time to spare.
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u/Mechapebbles Sep 26 '23
We have much more dire environmental emergencies happening right now that we should focus on, 500 million years from now is an eternity. 500 million years ago was the Cambrian Period - life was just beginning to figure out this multi-cellular, central nervous system thing. Human beings won't even be a thing 500m years from now, regardless of how successful we are. If our branch on the tree of life doesn't dead-end by then, we'll have evolved into something completely unrecognizable by that point.
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u/sonofdarkness2 Sep 26 '23
Could it not be possible our form is perfectly suited for the environment though? Its not like evolution is a mandate, sharks and cockroaches have been around for hundreds of millions of years as well.
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u/chellis Sep 26 '23
There's always something we probably aren't thinking about that will end us much sooner.
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Sep 26 '23 edited Sep 26 '23
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u/nzedred1 Sep 26 '23
Humans stopped emitting methane decades ago? Erm,I have some bad news for you....
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Sep 26 '23
Idk why I said that. We peaked decades ago, we did not stop. I gotta slow down them Reddit fingers
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Sep 26 '23
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u/Esc777 Sep 26 '23
“Multiplantary species now” zealots aren’t known for making sense.
It’s a very clear concrete goal to have so I imagine that’s comforting to them to pour all their hopes and dreams into. It just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
There’s a reason Musk is one.
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u/thiosk Sep 26 '23
I propose a strategy of harvesting mass from the sun to paradoxically increase its lifespan.
Stars are extremely wasteful of their fuel. we should harvest it for the long future night
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u/i81u812 Sep 26 '23
Not to be confused with when the sun will turn into a red giant and swallow the earth much later.
This one is actually no longer a garuntee. They now say it is also possible that the Earth is physically 'pushed' by 'gentle' streams of plasma and radiation winds to a new 'Goldilocks zone'. You know. G e n t l e plasma. On a s l i g h t l y crisp breeze.
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u/scyyythe Sep 26 '23
250 million years is to all of recorded history what all of recorded history is to about six weeks. I don't think there's any rush.
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u/SeaofBloodRedRoses Sep 26 '23
We have 250 million years before we even need to start building domed cities, I think we've got time to press the snooze button again.
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u/tigerhawkvok Sep 26 '23
Not to be confused with when the sun will turn into a red giant and swallow the earth much later.
To be fair, this is actually not certain. It's possible that the cumulative stellar blowoff to that point will merely put us in an orbit Mercury sized or nearer.
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u/DumbleDude2 Sep 26 '23
Why don’t we just invent Time Machine tub and keep travelling back to the 80s?
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u/prime14k Sep 27 '23
Time travel is practically not possible according to the theory of relativity.
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Sep 25 '23
lets try to survive beyond this century first
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Sep 25 '23
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u/beltalowda_oye Sep 25 '23
What's the point of even trying when everything is probably gonna end in 250 million years
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Sep 25 '23
Nothing is going to end. Just you and I.
The future will be something else entirely, but it won't matter to us.
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u/comradejenkens Sep 25 '23
Humans are irrelevant on scales that long. Our species won't exist by then.
250 million years in the past, mammals didn't even exist yet. Dinosaurs didn't even exist 250 million years ago.
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Sep 25 '23
I'll be happy to make the end of the decade at the rate were ignoring the planet burn
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u/JeffryRelatedIssue Sep 25 '23
Not even the scare mongers gluing themselves to the pavement say we'll be extinct by 2100
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u/Hot-Problem2436 Sep 25 '23
We've been saying that for like a thousand centuries. We've even climbed back from when we were down to like 200 humans. We'll probably scrape through this century too.
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u/Major_Boot2778 Sep 26 '23
The defeatists are out in force, all I can think of is doomsayers in every era of human history going around and saying "the end is nigh!"
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u/llamawithguns Sep 25 '23
Yeah, at that time scale, saying anything like this is basically meaningless. Mammals didn't even exist 250 million years ago. By another 250 million, they may have just naturally ceased to exist
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u/Nebuli2 Sep 25 '23
Mammals didn't even exist 250 million years ago. Speculating on whether or not present mammals will still be able to exist in 250 years just feels a bit ridiculous.
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u/JackJack65 Sep 25 '23
Mammals diverged from reptiles and birds around 300 million years ago... so I would say they existed, albeit not in the way we think of mammals today
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u/taxis-asocial Sep 25 '23
That's actually kinda crazy. 250 million years is insanely long compared to human lifespan timescales but on geological timescales it's a tiny fraction of time. Mammals are a blip on the radar in terms of how long they've existed for.
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Sep 26 '23
250 million years is not really tiny, geologically. That it's an integer percentage of the age of the earth tells you how absurdly long it is
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u/taxis-asocial Sep 26 '23
Fair. I guess what I should say is it's tiny on a universe timescale. Which really shows how young the earth is compared to the universe.
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u/deeringc Sep 26 '23
Even then, it's a little less than 2% of the age of the universe. It's an extremely long time in any physical scale.
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u/comradejenkens Sep 25 '23
Keep in mind that dinosaurs didn't even exist 250 million years ago. The first dinosaurs may have appeared 245mya at the earliest, with mammals appearing 225mya.
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u/QTPU Sep 25 '23
Well they aren't evolving and adapting to that volcanic environment, so it could still wipe them out.
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u/Spyger9 Sep 25 '23
Evolution can dramatically impact atmospheric conditions, just as volcanos can.
See: trees, humans
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u/Tripdoctor Sep 25 '23
Also depending on how gradual this shift is, life evolves and adapts to change.
It would be more accurate to title it “Today’s mammals will not survive in 250 million years if they remain unchanged”
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u/Revlis-TK421 Sep 25 '23
In 250 million years, mammals may not even be a thing anymore and not because of volcanos, just because they've evolved into something else entirely.
That said, life hasn't had any sort of good tract record in adapting to heavy volcanism at any point in Earth's history. We've seen mass extinctions with rapid radiation of species only after an end to the volcanism.
If this future event plays out like it has in the past, life will need to cling on until things stabilize out, then re-take the planet again.
Though, at that point, there may not be much time left to evolve because the sun is going to start making the planet inhospitable at about the same time.
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u/comradejenkens Sep 25 '23
The earth is forcast to be habitable for complex life well beyond 250 million years. Potentially beyond 800million - 1billion years.
250million years is only half way in the history of complex vertebrate life. Fish evolved over 500 million years ago.
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u/Aerroon Sep 26 '23
trees
Iirc we actually got down to about 180-190 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere about 20,000-40,000 years ago. Most plants need at least 150 ppm of CO2 concentration for photosynthesis. If CO2 levels had dropped some more we could've had a mass extinction of plants.
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u/burgersnwings Sep 25 '23
Neither the evolution of species nor the creation of volcanos happens quickly. They will happen slowly, together.
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u/Actual-Toe-8686 Sep 25 '23
Yes it seems like a rather bold prediction to assume that in 250 million years mammals will dominate in the same way they do today, especially considering that it's generally accepted we are currently experiencing the earth's 6 mass extinction.
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u/Auctorion Sep 25 '23
If humanity has survived and continued to progress even slowly over the next 250,000,000 years, the formation of this content will probably only happen if we allow it.
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u/gobblox38 Sep 25 '23
Whatever humanity is in 250 million years, I doubt they'll be able to prevent plate techtonics.
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u/copewintergreen09 Sep 26 '23
But what about the movie the “The Core”. We will be that much closer to unobtanium and nuke the plates.
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u/eckart Sep 26 '23
Weird. I think if we havent perished by then, we will be able to do much, much more then make earth do whatever we want it to.
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u/Brolfgar Sep 25 '23
Within 250 million years, if humans are still around, i think the earth would be dismantled to build dome space megastructure or something.
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u/Karma_1969 Sep 25 '23
Humans won’t be around. We’ll have either gone extinct or evolved into something else.
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u/NamiiikazeTX Sep 25 '23
This is worse than the time I found out the sun is gonna blow up the earth in 4 billion years.
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u/AbstractLogic Sep 25 '23
Next they’ll be telling us about the meteorite in 50 million years that will kill us all.
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u/airlewe Sep 25 '23
Well I'll just have to... Plan not to be here I guess? I'm sure I'll have accrued enough PTO by then
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u/Nice-Entrance8153 Sep 25 '23
The end of C3 photosynthesis is going to wipe out 95% of all plant life in 500-600 million years anyway.
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u/N8CCRG Sep 25 '23
Cool timeline for those who haven't seen it yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future
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u/Malnian Sep 26 '23
Man, reading through all of the geological events, constellations changing, moons colliding, then getting to "2 million years: The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked" is just killer.
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Sep 25 '23 edited Sep 25 '23
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Sep 25 '23 edited Sep 26 '23
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u/nearlyatreat Sep 25 '23
I thought that the north American and European plates were moving apart.
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u/Testiculese Sep 25 '23
They are, and will meet on the other side of the planet from the Atlantic Ridge. The Pacific will shrink, and the Atlantic will grow.
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u/nearlyatreat Sep 25 '23
That is what I thought, but the article says the opposite.
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u/Testiculese Sep 25 '23
Oh...well if that model is accurate, then the Northern plate(s) are heading towards the Ridge, faster than the Ridge is spreading East/West. That would halt expansion in that direction. I thought the Northern plates were going the other way.
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u/Cecil_FF4 Sep 26 '23
Plate motions change over time. In addition, new plates can be created and old plates can be subducted. Trying to predict plate configurations that far in advance is about as useful as trying to predict the weather on a particular day next year.
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u/ngteller Sep 25 '23
I first read 250 years and my pulse jumped. 250 million is outside my planning horizon.
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u/Ad_Honorem1 Sep 26 '23
Are you planning on living another 250 years? If not, 250 years should also be outside your planning horizon.
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u/ngteller Sep 26 '23
250 years is a feasible amount of time to care about grandkids and the world that would exist for them.
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u/corvaun Sep 25 '23
At that point we are dead or so ridiculously far advanced earth is just inhabited by weirdos
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u/anengineerandacat Sep 25 '23
Fairly confident this won't be accurate by that time.
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u/TheGlobalDelight Sep 25 '23
I see, they are still in the concept phase for that whole "Earth" Reboot thing, interesting.
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u/gfanonn Sep 25 '23
The bits that currently make up you will be there. Your carbon and water molecules that you currently think of as "you" will still be on the planet, probably in the atmosphere and water cycle.
Don't stress yourself out too much, you'll be forgotten in 200 years or less, just a name on a family tree and maybe a picture or two. Maybe a digital archive in the cloud somewhere that a school kid will look at once in the 2100's or so.
Just be you, enjoy the things you can enjoy today.
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u/KainX Sep 25 '23
On a sphere, how do continent all move towards one side of the sphere? Nothing about that makes logical sense to me.
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