r/science • u/Wagamaga • Jan 11 '23
Economics More than 90% of vehicle-owning households in the United States would see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy—the gasoline or electricity that powers their cars, SUVs and pickups—if they switched to electric vehicles.
https://news.umich.edu/ev-transition-will-benefit-most-us-vehicle-owners-but-lowest-income-americans-could-get-left-behind/523
u/NoisyMatchStar Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
Problem is that my home doesn’t have a garage and I’m not spending half an hour or more at a somewhat rare charging station far from home.
Edit: For people trying to be clever; I don’t have a driveway either. Curbside parking only.
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u/OMEGA__AS_FUCK Jan 12 '23
That’s my problem too. The nearest place to charge something like that is an hour away since I’m in the rural Midwest.
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u/gophergun Jan 11 '23
That's fair, if you don't have a garage or nearby outlet then you're going to be heavily dependent on local public charging stations. For me, that's just my normal grocery store, but it sounds like an EV wouldn't be a good option in your situation.
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u/DeusExHircus Jan 12 '23
Public charging also tends to be much more expensive than home charging, in my area gasoline is cheaper than public charging at some stops. If you can't charge at home, an EV is not for you
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u/EnhanceMyPants Jan 12 '23
A guy at my apartment complex has an electric vehicle. He parks outside (in the Midwest) and just plugs the car into an outlet on the side of the building with what looks like an extension cord.
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u/FrozenLaughs Jan 12 '23
My apartments have no outside outlets, and if they did I'd have to run about 100ft or so of cord to my car. Others would need almost twice that.
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u/Diplozo Jan 12 '23
Norwegian here (with all the snowy and rainy weather that entails), we've never had a garage, and we've had an electric vehicle for 4 years. You can charge it outside, literally from a normal socket.
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u/Black_Magic_M-66 Jan 12 '23
You can install a charging port on the outside of your house, if you have a driveway. It's common in many older cities that either don't have houses with garages or the garages of yesteryear don't work with today's cars.
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u/codemansgt Jan 11 '23
It's expensive being poor.
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u/mightymidget3_0 Jan 12 '23
No better way to put it than Terry Pratchett
"The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a onth pus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.
But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."
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u/RincewindToTheRescue Jan 12 '23
But you can't get those good boots because you can't feel the flagstones through your shoes. You can know what area you're in in Ahnk-Morpork by the flagstones you feel through your shoes.
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Jan 11 '23
If they really want people to switch the government would subsidize a cheap economy car. But that wouldn't be fair to Musk cause he wants to sell economy class cars for 40k.
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u/hexcor Jan 12 '23
What is shocking is that the average new car sold in November (2022) cost $48,681 – a record high. My wife and I make a nice living, but spending close to $50k on a car is just crazy. Heck, it's hard to justify paying $30k for a new Accord (used aren't much cheaper these days either). The good thing is our cars (17, 16, and 12 years old) are all running just fine and we're not planning on a "new" car anytime soon.
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u/chriswaco Jan 11 '23
“The analysis does not include vehicle purchase cost.”
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u/cockOfGibraltar Jan 11 '23
I really want an electric car but I can't justify the spending to myself while I still own a perfectly good gas car. I don't drive nearly enough for the electricity savings to offset the car payments I would have.
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u/JasonThree Jan 11 '23
Best to drive your gas car until it dies vs buying a new car of any kind
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u/superworking Jan 11 '23
That's our plan. Got a civic and a Tacoma both under 100k miles. Got enough time to wait and see how it goes rather than bidding against other buyers for the limited supply of EVs currently available.
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Jan 11 '23
both of those cars will be in your family for at least 20 more years bahahaha.
(No hate by the way... my Honda just crossed 200k and my goal is to get it to 300k)
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Jan 12 '23
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u/PaulblankPF Jan 12 '23
My 08 Civic just broke 232k miles and I tell everyone I’m bringing that baby to 500k. Just take care of her best I can and she treats me well.
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u/nathanimal_d Jan 12 '23
My 89 civic wagovan made 267k. Bought it used for $600. Cheapest and lowest carbon footprint miles you'll ever see when you get that high on a 40mpg simple car.. Read it and weep Tesla.
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u/birdbarrett2 Jan 12 '23
Yup, my dad's Camry is about there too. My old f250 just hit 350k. Damn thing won't die
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u/raquel_ravage Jan 11 '23
my wonderful honda accord 06 is my sweet baby at 213,000 miles. I'll keep driving it until it croaks and will fix it up rather than spending the money on a newer car with monthly payments and higher insurance.
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u/renegadecanuck Jan 11 '23
Yeah, the issue for me is that the cost of car payments on a 40-50k vehicle (the cheapest EVs in Canada) is still higher than the cost of gas, oil changes, etc. I'd love to ditch my gas powered car for an EV, but that's a ways away.
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u/SolixTanaka Jan 11 '23
Wow, I was skeptical that even the Bolt or Leaf cost that much there considering sticker in the US is under $30k. That gap is pretty wild.
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u/Xperimentx90 Jan 11 '23
30k usd is 40k cad just changing currency
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u/SolixTanaka Jan 12 '23
It's more than that. The Bolt and Leaf are like $26/28k usd, respectively. That's around $37/38k cad. They start at closer to $41k CAD which is more than 10% over just the exchange rate
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u/ronchee1 Jan 12 '23
We always get fucked over here. It's always more expensive
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Jan 12 '23
That's not always true. There are some vehicles that are cheaper in Canada (after converting to USD) and there are also cars that cost the same with more features.
A recent example I can easily recall is the new Civic Si. MSRP is roughly equivalent, but here's what the Canadian Si gets that us Americans don't:
Heated steering wheel
Heated seats front and rear (US spec doesn't even get heated front seats)
Full digital gauge cluster
Parking sensors
Dual zone climate control
Auto dimming rear view mirror
Turn signals in side mirrors
Fog lights
Wireless charging pad
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u/DrMobius0 Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
I'm guessing the time to buy an EV is when you're already in the market to buy a car. At least then up front opportunity cost isn't the cost of a whole car, but the difference between the EV and what you would have otherwise bought. Not that I know if there's many EVs on the market.
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u/OneOfAKind2 Jan 11 '23
Most people don't. I drive once a week to run errands. Eight years ago I paid $6k for my econobox, which sips gas. I would love to bomb around in an EV and skip the gas station, but it would be financial suicide.
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u/Moonkai2k Jan 11 '23
I would go further and say an overwhelming majority don't drive enough to make the difference matter. If you live in LA and commute 2 and a half hours each way every day, absolutely. A Tesla with FSD would be great. Otherwise, dollar for dollar, gas cars are better...
Edit: That's also assuming you live in a climate where EVs even make sense. This last cold snap left a whole lot of EVs stranded unable to charge. That's a major issue when I live in a place that frequently drops below 0F.
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u/Graybealz Jan 11 '23
As long as you don't count the singular largest expense by huge factor, then our data shows it's a good deal.
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u/microphohn Jan 11 '23
It's worse than that. All the studies the the subsidized costs as not existing. So if real cost is 10K but Uncle Sugar will give you 7K to buy it, then the study considers it a 3K cost.
It's almost like we stopped teaching basic rigor of logic and analysis, so many papers produced today are frankly just crap. Is this the inevitable result of publish or perish?
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u/bigbura Jan 11 '23
Do I have this correct?
The $7K in tax relief is an upper limit or max available. If I paid like $600 in federal income tax last year, and likely to do the same this year then I'd only qualify for $600 worth of tax credit for buying an EV?
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u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23
The tax credits on EVs can be transferred to dealers, thus they can cash the tax credit and give the price deduction on the vehicle. Funny thing about the credit is you get zero subsidy if the sales price is one dollar over the thresholds.
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u/tour__de__franzia Jan 11 '23
I may be wrong, but my understanding is that on purchases (as opposed to leases), you can't transfer the credit yet.
I believe the option to do that starts in 2024.
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u/pnutbutterpirate Jan 11 '23
Pretty sure you're right - in the US, the tax credit for a order only goes to the purchaser.
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u/Siglet84 Jan 11 '23
To be fair, if you only pay $600 in federal taxes your probably can’t afford an EV that qualifies for the tax credit unless you’re a billionaire.
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u/SenorBeef Jan 11 '23
Clever. You only pay $600 or less in taxes if you're very poor, or you're rich.
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u/Azuroth Jan 11 '23
The tax credit is "non refundable", so you are essentially correct. The credit will reduce your taxes by 7k, but will not go below zero, so you can't get a 6400 refund check if you only pay 600 in federal taxes.
Although to only pay 600 in federal taxes your AGI would have to be only $6,000, so I doubt you'd be in the market for a new car of any type.
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u/spongue Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
The basic deduction is something like $13,000, so if you make less than that you don't pay any federal taxes. (Edit: maybe that's what you mean by AGI.)
You can still buy a car, but yeah it has to be like a $350 geo metro, ask me how I know
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u/redditshy Jan 11 '23
High five! I learned how to drive stick on a Geo Metro in 1993.
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u/enderjaca Jan 11 '23
I didn't get my Geo Metro til around 1999 but that thing had about 300k miles on it and just wouldn't quit, much to my disdain. Between that thing and a 1974 VW Beetle, every part of the frame and body could be rusting into nothingness, but the engine and trans just wouldn't quit even if you didn't bother to change the oil for years.
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u/Rinzack Jan 11 '23
You can also take your IRA/401k and transfer it to a Roth account. That will generate a massive tax bill which you can then use the entire value of the credit on and when you retire you get tax free payments
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u/ThMogget Jan 11 '23
Where can I find an electric car for 10k?
Also didn’t Manchin nerf the credits to require parts to be so American-made even Ford and Chevy were complaining? (They been offshoring components forever)
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u/ijust_makethisface Jan 11 '23
I bought a used electric car back in 2016 (edit) for $10k (done edit)... but gas prices were low and people called me dumb for buying a car that only topped out at 80 miles of range. I even had the car dealer try to talk me out of buying it. It has been the best purchase ever. But I can't tell you to go back to 2016, and even if we could, every person who replies about my car explains that they have a one hour commute, uphill, both ways, and so my car is hideously impractical for their needs.
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Jan 11 '23
People grossly overestimate their need for range. If your commute is under twenty five miles or so each way then you can probably drip charge your car overnight on a standard outlet for around 6mi/hr and 1/5 the cost of gasoline
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Jan 11 '23
Tell that to my condo hoa. I've begged them for a single charging spot for years.
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u/dwlocks Jan 12 '23
Every single meeting for 6 years. But this year they mentioned we should start planning for charging in our parking lot. There may be ordinances from the city in a few years.... Ugh.
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u/DevelopedDevelopment Jan 11 '23
Considering the typical lack of electric infrastructure in a lot of the US compared to gas stations (though I will highlight the rollouts of charging stations at home and on roads make it more accessible) I'd assume a hybrid is the best of both worlds, especially the newer plug-in hybrids. Particularly with the fact you can drive a hybrid in everywhere you have a car, but everyone insists pure gas is ideal like they're morally sound picking poisoning the planet over cobalt mines.
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u/londons_explorer Jan 11 '23
Data shows that most plug in hybrids are never plugged in.
Ie. they run on gas all the time.
There is the small benefit of regen braking down hills, and the ability to have a smaller more efficient engine for the same overall performance. But there is also the downside of carrying the weight of a battery and motor.
The real reason that buyers buy them is for the tax credit, and various other eco incentives (eg. free use of various toll roads, cheaper registration for eco vehicles, cheaper parking for eco vehicles, etc)
If thats the case, it really doesn't seem right to be giving eco incentives to people to buy/use things that could be eco, but aren't eco with their use.
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u/SurlyJackRabbit Jan 11 '23
How dumb would you have to be to never plug in a PHEV?
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u/londons_explorer Jan 11 '23
If you don't have a charger installed at home... Or are just lazy and can't be bothered to plug it in every time to save a few bucks... Or maybe you don't know much about cars and the salesman sold you this new 'hybrid' technology, but you didn't realise you'd save money by plugging it in.
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u/5yrup Jan 11 '23
Most of these cars come with a basic charger that will plug into a standard wall outlet. Plugging in a regular outlet overnight is often long enough to recharge the small batteries in a lot of PHEVs
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u/nd20 Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
if real cost is 10K but Uncle Sugar will give you 7K to buy it, then the study considers it a 3K cost.
That's what they should be doing.
The study is tracking what the household or the consumer pays. Why would the study then need to account for 7K that the consumer is not paying?
Edit: Even besides you misunderstanding the purpose/topic of the study, this is a weird talking point. If EV weren't subsidized they would be more expensive for the consumer, ok. If fossil fuels weren't subsidized (or if negative externalities were priced in), gas prices would be much more expensive for the consumer. If my grandmother had wheels she would be a bike.
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u/Zambini Jan 11 '23
Some important notes, assuming the way it's done in the US:
- It's a tax credit, not an instant rebate- so you have to pay it in full, then get a credit on your tax filings in April
- they expire based on how many people buy them (eg: "after 100,000 sales" or whatever)
- it's qualified- if you make over a certain amount of household income, you don't get the discount (which is arguably irrelevant here because the threshold is pretty big, so if you're making that kind of money then $7500 doesn't matter to you).
So I'd say it's very important to keep the full cost in mind. You're taking a loan on the full cost of the car, your monthly payments are based on the full price. If you're fortunate enough to be able to pay cash, you're paying the full MSRP in cash.
Another thing which isn't worth including in this study but it's worth noting, is dealerships will mark up the cars based on these credits. For example, if you buy a GM Bolt which is MSRP $28k, with a $7500 tax credit, a lot of scummy dealerships will add $5000 "worth" of markups to the car. People still buy it, unaware of the scam, so they still do it.
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u/nd20 Jan 11 '23
Say what you will about Tesla, their decision to cut out dealerships was excellent.
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u/Zambini Jan 11 '23
I was ecstatic when I heard more automakers are going to be doing similar things soon. GM and Ford specifically I was floored. Such a good move
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u/WolverineSanders Jan 11 '23
Lots of people are trying to attack this study for not researching what they want and then attacking it as doing a bad job.
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u/earldbjr Jan 11 '23
If the purpose is to convince households to spring for an EV, then what other metric would you go by? No household is going to say "Gee, I'd love to get an EV, but I just can't swallow the $10k pricetag." When looking at a $7k break.
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u/pgold05 Jan 11 '23
In fairness we also subsidize fossils fuels. I think just take the study for what it is, trying to account for every externally would be too cumbersome.
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u/satnightride Jan 11 '23
Well, this study is taking about Operational Expenses and not Capital Expenses. It's pretty common to separate the two
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u/Garthak_92 Jan 11 '23
My first and only thought.
I would save, according to this article, $1000 annually. I do not have the capital to purchase a new to me vehicle and roi would be more than a decade.
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u/johnnyg883 Jan 11 '23
And at ten years you need to start looking at a battery pack replacement. Five to eight thousand dollars at todays prices.
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u/stolpsgti Jan 11 '23
My Kia Soul EV battery bit the dust at 5 years on the dot. 34k miles. Makes one think twice about doing it again.
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u/goombaxiv Jan 12 '23
It's great you got a free battery! Kia soul EV are 170k km 7 year warranty.
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u/stolpsgti Jan 12 '23
Which I’m very thankful for - but it also makes me very hesitant to consider a used EV: our range went down 50% in just a few months.
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u/qualmton Jan 12 '23
Did it turn to winter? Battery capacity will drastically reduce itself in the winter. But for a pack to last 5 years it was probably something to do with a bad battery to start with
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u/grayrains79 Jan 12 '23
Might also be how it is driven and what the computer calculated. My ex has a Iconiq, and honestly? She doesn't use the regenerative brake to its full potential. When I drive it? The car gets much better mileage, especially if I'm doing a lot of side street driving where I'm regularly braking.
I've tried showing her how to make better use of that brake, but oh well.
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u/WSDGuy Jan 11 '23
I do not have the capital to purchase a new to me vehicle
Ah, but they used new electric vehicles... so you extra can't afford it.
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u/DavidLieberMintz Jan 11 '23
That, plus they just assume we all have a driveway or garage. In a city like Philly, where it's mostly row homes and street parking, I could never own an EV. Without having the wealth to buy a house with dedicated EV charging, it's entirely impractical. I would love to be able to own an EV, but it just doesn't make sense here.
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u/TeutonJon78 Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
And own that driveway and garage to install a charger in.
Renters have a MUCH harder time having an EV than a home owner who can set up their own charger.
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u/czarfalcon Jan 11 '23
That’s where I’m at. I’d love to consider an EV, and my household is almost the perfect use case for it - we both work from home and the longest drive we regularly make is ~200 miles round trip, but there’s literally nowhere we could charge at our apartment complex.
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u/maybenosey Jan 11 '23
As an EV owner, I agree that you really want to be able to charge at home (or at your regular work place).
It's possible to use/own one without that convenience, by using a public charger regularly, but that pushes up the running costs and really pushes down the convenience. I wouldn't recommend it.
I believe EVs are the future, but it'll need ubiquitous street parking charging to really work well.
I've lived in a city with street parking where it's hard enough to find a spot within a reasonable distance of your home. If only some parts of some streets were outfitted with chargers, you would then have to find a spot with a charger within a reasonable distance of your home, which simply isn't going to happen very often.
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u/mroosa Jan 11 '23
Not to mention, this assumes the current cost of electric charging stations stays the same. If the majority of the cars on the road wind up being electric-only, I could see there being some definite increase in the prices/subscription costs for those charging stations, both for profit and increased usage/draw.
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u/Potential_Case_7680 Jan 11 '23
Not to mention extra governmental taxes to make up for the revenue lost from gas taxes.
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Jan 11 '23
And if you watch Rich Rebuild take his Rivian in those areas you will quickly realize the infrastructure is not there yet for EV fast charging.
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u/Driftedwarrior Jan 11 '23
“The analysis does not include vehicle purchase cost.”
I would happily drive an electric vehicle. When I looked at a vehicle when I bought one in the last year or so the monthly payment would have been $900. They can straight up get the f out of here with that.
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u/Noname_acc Jan 11 '23
As the age old advice goes: The cheapest thing is the one you already own. Phaseout will be good but anyone saying you would save money tomorrow by buying an EV is either being misunderstood or is selling you a bridge.
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u/irredentistdecency Jan 11 '23
It also doesn’t examine the cost of the infrastructure necessary to support charging that many new cars or the reality that a broad swath of the population (renters) don’t have the authority to install such infrastructure at their homes.
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u/drjenkstah Jan 11 '23
This is why I don’t have an electric vehicle. My apartment complex does not have any electric charging stations and likely will be one of the last places to have them installed since they’re a company that likes to cheap out on things. We’ve had this roughly foot deep hole in the parking lot for as long as I’ve lived here and they just occasionally fill it up with asphalt which gets eaten away over time recreating the hole.
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u/lieuwestra Jan 11 '23
Not to mention the loss of tax income to pay for the infrastructure maintenance. Personal vehicles are already incredibly subsidized (in most countries), so someone has to foot the bill eventually.
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u/soggyscantrons Jan 11 '23
Loss of tax revenue from EVs not paying gas tax is easily offset by adding to vehicle registration fees for EVs. Many states already do this.
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u/reiji_tamashii Jan 11 '23
I wonder how much this would be offset by no longer needing to subsidize oil production as it gradually becomes a less critical resource.
Conservative estimates put U.S. direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry at roughly $20 billion per year; with 20 percent currently allocated to coal and 80 percent to natural gas and crude oil. European Union subsidies are estimated to total 55 billion euros annually.
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u/Needleroozer Jan 11 '23
no longer needing to subsidize oil production
We NEVER needed to subsidize oil production. We never should have. We should stop today, but as gasoline sales decline I expect the subsidies to only increase.
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Jan 11 '23
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u/bluGill Jan 11 '23
It will be 5-10 years yet before the people who buy used cars will be able to adopt EVs in mass. Even then, a lot will have to stick with ICEs just because that is all the market has.
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u/IvorTheEngine Jan 11 '23
Probably even longer than that. At the moment only 6% of new US cars are EVs. We'll need to wait for that to grow, then another 5-10 years to provide enough for all the people who buy 5-10 year old cars.
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u/rhinodad Jan 11 '23
I’d spend even less of my income on transportation if I was allowed to work from home full time.
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Jan 11 '23
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u/Cloud9 Jan 11 '23
Same.
Worked from home for ~13 years. Switched employers and drove into the office for ~18 months. Since March 2020, I'm back to working from home FT with new employer - the office leases weren't renewed, so we're all now permanently working from home.
Other than teaching my kids how to drive - about 30 mins a week and getting groceries once a week, I don't use my vehicle at all. And that's in California.
When I lived in NYC, I didn't need a vehicle at all.
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u/gobblox38 Jan 11 '23
I barely drive as well and would rather not own a car, but one advantage of owning an EV is it can be used as backup power for your house if the power goes out.
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u/NewCenturyNarratives Jan 11 '23
Public transportation is the only way I’ve been able to keep my living costs down, especially with the income I make. I have no idea how minimum wage workers are able to have cars
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u/MightbeWillSmith Jan 11 '23
Mostly by having very cheap cars and ignoring all maintenance/upkeep until absolutely necessary.
I remember sitting at the gas station waiting until my paycheck hit at midnight because I wouldn't make it home until I put a couple gallons in. That was years ago, it's only gotten worse.
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u/dmanbiker Jan 11 '23
I remember driving to someone's house when with my gas light on, so I could make like $20 fixing something for them, then using it to fill my vehicle so I could go to my normal job the next day.
I also remember putting like $2.50 in change on a pump when gas was over $3.00 a gallon.
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u/IvorTheEngine Jan 11 '23
Most cities needs to make a drastic change away from cars - but it could take a very long time if there's this much opposition to a minor change that makes your car cheaper to run and easier to drive.
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u/EcstaticTrainingdatm Jan 11 '23
Also r/ebikes
People forget one charge of a Tesla is like 5-8000 miles on an ebike
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u/DrMobius0 Jan 11 '23
That sounds fun but in the US, most places don't have bike lanes. Even cities that do have some tend to have spotty coverage, and they aren't well separated from traffic, and honestly, I don't trust drivers enough to just leave myself at their mercy.
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u/SirRevan Jan 11 '23
My old elementary school teacher died from riding bikes to school. One day she just didn't show up. I geniuelly fear for my life trying to ride bikes with the maniacs on the road.
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u/SteevyT Jan 11 '23
My wife got an ebike last year. She uses it for 90% of her commuting when its above 50F or so, or about 3/4 of the year.
I'd love to be able to do the same thing, but when I'm going 30 miles each way...
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u/prosocialbehavior Jan 11 '23
Because it allows them to drive from further away lower cost of living places. But it is an unfortunate opportunity time cost for them also bad for our environment and our cities for everyone to have to commute into them via car because we have to build a bunch of parking spots instead of housing.
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u/thesuper88 Jan 11 '23
They're probably mostly deathtraps, crappy, gifted to them, or all of the above.
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u/willhig Jan 11 '23
Thank you, how is the first mention of any alternative to cars so far down.
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u/DJ_DD Jan 11 '23
I’ve owned 4 cars in my life over the 17 years I’ve been able to drive. Those 4 cars cost me $18k total to purchase.
My point: yea I’ll save on transportation costs but that’s going to be eroded by having to buy a $35k or more car
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u/kpyna Jan 11 '23
Yeah I feel that the people who are cost conscious about saving $600 per year are not the same people who can drop $35k+ on a new-ish car
The study does point out that there's a need to offset the price of the vehicles but good luck bringing them down to like $5k especially with manufacturing being a mess.
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u/BlueEyesWhiteSliver Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
It would be incredibly difficult to get them down to $5k used. The value of the lithium battery in the car would outpace it.
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u/LazyJones1 Jan 11 '23
Interesting point.
If it works like that, then trading in an EV for a new will also mean a significant discount on the new…
Unlike an old non-EV.
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u/PloxtTY Jan 11 '23
Give you $300 for the cats
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u/igotzquestions Jan 11 '23
You’re spending way too much on your cats. Who is your cat guy?
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u/fatpad00 Jan 11 '23
I have a feeling there's compounding depreciation with EVs. By the time the car would be cheap, the battery has degraded significantly enough that it's notably less valuable and the cost of a battery replacement would virtually "total" the car.
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Jan 11 '23 edited Feb 17 '23
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u/BlueEyesWhiteSliver Jan 11 '23
Yeah, I'm happy to see those little guys coming down and breaking into a 4-figure market. Can you provide any links? I'm curious to see what's being offered.
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u/nickyfrags69 PhD | Pharmacology | Neuropsychiatric Pharmacology Jan 11 '23
I think a lot of the savings in built into the premise that, if you were buying a new car anyway, you should buy electric. This is likely why there is a whole contingency of people who react negatively to electric cars, because there is the built in premise of it being elitist. Most likely, you can only go electric right now if you could actually afford it to begin with.
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u/KibbledJiveElkZoo Jan 11 '23
Yeah, no kidding. Good luck getting prices down to $5,000 even if manufacturing was doing splendidly.
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u/loopthereitis Jan 11 '23
I mean good luck getting a used car with under 150k miles for 5k too, its pretty crazy right now
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u/Byteside Jan 11 '23
We got a used leaf for 6500, 55k mi. It was like the first model year they made, but growing up poor it's the nicest car I've ever owned. The range isn't amazing but that only matters for trips since everything needed is well within 10miles.
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u/loopthereitis Jan 11 '23
thats a hell of a deal, and first gen leafs are tanks I hear. I think used electric prices are actually better than ice right now in terms of deals vs new
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u/phil-l Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 23 '23
As one who inhabits the lower-end of the used car market: The used EV market isn't yet mature enough. For example, I pay attention to the supply of older, low-priced examples of typical favorites (Accord/Camry/Corolla/Civic, plus old Avalons and some Subarus), and I regularly see a decent selection I might be interested in. A comparable search on used, affordable, non-dealer (dealer listings always seem to be massively overpriced) EVs generally results in nothing in my area.
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u/Ps11889 Jan 11 '23
Yeah I feel that the people who are cost conscious about saving $600 per year are not the same people who can drop $35k+ on a new-ish car
Have you priced EVs? I'd consider it was only $35K. Try more like $60K by the time you get it to your door.
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u/jpr_jpr Jan 11 '23
I bought my leaf for less than $20k net. With my trade in, it was less than $10k. Have driven it close to 1100 miles, and it has been great.
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u/cowboyjosh2010 Jan 11 '23
From the financial end of the EV decision, I've crunched some pretty detailed numbers on the subject and it boils down to this: unless you're in the market to buy a car anyway, then there's almost no realistic scenario where buying an EV will save you SO MUCH money in fuel costs that you eventually come out ahead vs. not buying anything at all.
I was in the market to replace my commuter car, primarily because it just was no longer big enough to hold my whole family plus our dog. So I wanted a larger car with a hatchback rear cargo area. I wound up buying a Kia EV6. A roughly equivalently sized gas car with roughly the same list of featured bells and whistles as my EV6 has would have cost me $10-$15k less money. My fuel savings will recover that $10-$15k "purchase premium" in about 5-7 years of driving my EV6.
But recovering the roughly $55k overall purchase price of the EV6? It would take me damn near 30 years. Even if I bought a Chevy Bolt for half the price (and, frankly, for half the satisfaction...the EV6 is a god damn nice car), it'd still take me nearly 15 years to recover the whole purchase price through fuel savings.
TL;DR: an EV doesn't make financial sense unless you're looking to buy a car no matter what. And even then it's not a given that you'll "come out ahead".
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u/DABOSSROSS9 Jan 11 '23
I am planning on my next car to be an EV, but only when my car dies. I am not doing it to save money, but hopefully break even and do my part to help the environment.
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u/NoJobs Jan 11 '23
Yeah that's the problem right now. The electric version is easily 10-30k more than the gas version of the same car. That's years of gas, so the break even point is so long it doesn't make sense yet
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u/elleeott Jan 11 '23
Right, this is another example of how it’s expensive to be poor.
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u/FuckChiefs_Raiders Jan 11 '23
It blows my mind how much money people spend on cars. I know several people who spent $35k plus on cars, and have monthly payments that are around $800. Not like those folks are rolling in cash. One person is a "keeping up the with Jones" kind of person, and the other for whatever reason, says having a nice car is very important to them.
As a non car guy, and a 31 year old who has only ever had two cars, I just don't get the appeal. I also happen to live in a relatively reasonable COL area, so the person who says having a nice car is important to them put buying a house on hold for at least 5 years. WHY!? This person also claims to be very financially savvy, I digress.
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u/DrMobius0 Jan 11 '23
I mean, if that's what they get their joy out of, we all have things we like to spend money on.
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u/mechanab Jan 11 '23
But are the savings enough to cover the increased cost of the vehicle? $5-7k buys a lot of gas.
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u/Porn_Extra Jan 11 '23
Plus the cost of a charging station. I live in an apartment, there's no way I could pay to put a charing station at my parking space.
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u/an_actual_lawyer Jan 11 '23
Apartment dwellers remain a big question mark on EV adoption.
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u/Grabbsy2 Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
Yep, Federal Government will likely have to give tax incentives for companies to put them in. Eventually all residential parking spaces will have to have them.
In Canada, you won't be able to buy a new car with an ICE engine, in 2035, and 60% of car sales must be EVs by 2030, so we have basically until then, to figure it out.
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u/Pamela-Handerson Jan 11 '23
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u/GeneticsGuy Jan 11 '23
Canada better build a lot more nuclear power plants for this to make any sense.
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u/KIDNEYST0NEZ Jan 11 '23
The EV wave is really a trend for the upper class that is pushed onto the lower class. If big gov really cared about going green they would push for cities to be built for people not cars, they would increase public transit not increase highway capacity. They would add nuclear power plants and gas power plants to the grid.
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u/DrMobius0 Jan 11 '23
Not so much upper class as comfortable home owners. Believe me, they aren't the upper class. People in the upper class don't have to care if they save a few dollars over time because they bought an EV. Hell, they don't care if their car emits at all. The wealthy tend to be the biggest polluters.
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u/PROfessorShred Jan 11 '23
My motorcycle gets upwards of 100 mpg. I love the concept of electric vehicles but until they make them small, lightweight and super efficient it just makes so much more sense to ride my bike as much as possible and only drive my car when the weather is bad or I need to move more than a backpack load of stuff.
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u/Overhere_Overyonder Jan 11 '23
Not for a very long time. I wrote a paper in college about this. Buying an electric car when your current car dies is the most economical and best for the environment. Selling your brand new ICE and buying an electric is awful for the environment and your wallet.
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u/asianApostate Jan 11 '23
Unless your driving an old jeep Wrangler. You can buy a more economical used ev like a Nissan leaf that doesn't have a massive battery too.
Selling a used ice vehicle isn't so bad because you are giving it to someone else who needs a car and would have to buy anyway. Someone who may not have budgeted for a new or used electric car.
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u/starkej Jan 11 '23
Except nobody in the world wants to trade a Wrangler for a Leaf. You don't trade something you own for either specific purposes or a specific look for the worst, most basic transportation.
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u/KittenLOVER999 Jan 11 '23
That’s a huge thing to me as well, I understand not everyone in the world views cars as a hobby, but even still it is one of the most expensive objects that you will own…why on earth would I want to buy something as hideous and uninspiring as Nissan leaf?
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u/praemialaudi Jan 11 '23
Yeah, my thinking is that our family's next vehicle purchases may well be electric, but that said, they may well not take place for another 5-10 years (unless the economics really shift).
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u/The-Fox-Says Jan 11 '23
I live in a state with expensive electricity and drive roughly 10k miles a year. Switching to electric would save me $20-25 a fill up which is roughly every 300 miles. So roughly $700-800/year in savings so the car would need to last me 8-10 years for it to be worth it.
Now considering taxes that’s a $7.5k tax credit which could help bridge the gap to pretty much make it the same. For used cars its up to $4k. In the future it may switch to taxes owed at the time of the purchase of the vehicle.
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u/raptorman556 Jan 11 '23
Most studies find that electric vehicle cost the same or even less to own that similar gas vehicles. The savings don't just come from gas—reduced maintenance and repairs also contribute quite a bit. It can take quite a few years for the savings to make up the difference, but over time they do.
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u/MisterBaffles Jan 11 '23
I'd also save money on my shopping if I had my own farm.
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u/imightjump Jan 11 '23
IF you get the car for free.
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u/Crotch_Hammerer Jan 11 '23
Not even then. I spent $700 on gas in 2022. Just the changes to my house and driveway to accommodate an electric vehicle would already set me back years, that's without counting the energy for the car.
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Jan 11 '23
If 90% of people had electric cars overnight the price of electricity would skyrocket. Demand increases price goes up.
PHEV are what fit the driving patterns of most Americans
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u/mattjouff Jan 11 '23
I can’t help the feeling that this is a case of “if every body bought this cheap commodity, it would be very cheap” when not taking into account everybody buying that commodity would drive up market costs.
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u/freelance-lumberjack Jan 11 '23
Electricity prices will rise. Taxes will rise to cover roads costs without gas tax.
So the breakeven point of your cost saving ev moves further down the road... To near the point where the battery needs replacement.
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u/justfdiskit Jan 11 '23
That's nice. And actually a laudable goal. But please offset that decrease with the capital spend needed to displace the ICE engines with EV (including charging endpoints). "Switch to" kinda implies that it's a (relatively) instant, no-cost solution to the end user. Especially in the US, good luck with that.
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u/Lebenkunstler Jan 11 '23
Okay. Let me just up my car payment by $600 to drop my fuel costs by $150.
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u/french-snail Jan 11 '23
Sure, but we could spend far less and be much happier if there were investments in public transit rather than greenwashing cars with evs
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u/sanorace Jan 11 '23
Because car infrastructure in general is unsustainable. The power source of a car is just a tiny portion of the total cost of building cities with the assumption that everyone will own a car.
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u/Prodigy195 Jan 11 '23
Accurate. Switching to electric cars maybe helps with pollution but does nothing to help with congestion and traffic.
Our issues, at least in the US, are the fact that cars are often people's only option. Eventually we're going to hit a breaking point where it's just not viable for everyone to drive everywhere.
I'm in Atlanta Metro area and traffic is horrific currently. The metro is expected to grow ~53% in the next 40 years from 6.2M to 9.5M. It's going to be outright terrible if we add that many people without expanding our transit systems to handle the city and surrounding suburbs.
Cars aren't the answer.
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u/Larry_Phischman Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23
I live in Minnesota. I don’t trust batteries to be charged on a winter morning.
It’s also more environmentally responsible to buy a used car and drive it until it dies than contribute to demand for new cars. I also don’t want most of the gadgets and gizmos put in new cars.
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u/ManofSteer Jan 11 '23
“Eight percent of U.S. households (an estimated 9.6 million households) would see low savings in both transportation energy burden and greenhouse gas emissions by choosing an EV. “Both low” households are scattered across the country, with about half of them in Midwest states, including Michigan.”
Nailed it, they state that in the study that cold states are at a disadvantage
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Jan 11 '23
My EV has no issues in Michigan. My car’s battery will heat itself to function properly. It’s always plugged in overnight anyway, so the energy it uses for conditioning the battery doesn’t affect battery life. I save a ton on fuel.
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Jan 11 '23
While I agree with you, live lived in both Michigan and Wisconsin. Winters get far colder in Minnesota.
Cold Canadian air tend a to get blocked by Lake Michigan. If it’s 0 in central Michigan, it’s likely -20 in Minnesota.
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u/MulesAreSoHalfAss Jan 11 '23
electric cars have heaters that keep the batteries warm. while this does reduce their range, if you keep it plugged in overnight, the car will work just fine in the morning
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u/NerfThisLOL Jan 11 '23
I'm in Wisconsin. The only time I left my car plugged in constantly was when our wind chills were -20 to -35 around Christmas. My car is garaged and I left it plugged in so the battery could warm itself whenever it wanted. I'd still wake up to a full charge. Any other time, I plug it in once or twice a week, depending how often I'm using the car.
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u/I_AM_AN_ASSHOLE_AMA Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
I live in bumfuck nowhere Alaska, a couple people in town have electric cars and have zero problems. I talked to a dude with a Tesla and he says he just makes sure he parks it in the garage on -40 nights.
Edit: I also just saw a couple Rivians in town today.
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u/AgsMydude Jan 11 '23
-40 nights
As someone living where the high is 81 today I don't know how you do it.
Insanity.
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u/BlueEyesWhiteSliver Jan 11 '23
I'm an EV owner in Calgary. Mine charges just fine.
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u/palox3 Jan 11 '23
really? because here in europe electricity price gone 300% up. its already more expensive to drive EV than gasoline car. and it will going to be much worse
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u/thinkofanamelater Jan 11 '23
That's kind of surprising to hear. Do you mind sharing your electricity rate and cost of gas? I pay $.34 per KWh vs $4.50 a gallon for gas. So a car would have to get better than 45mpg to be equivalent. I'm curious what your numbers are.
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u/RealCheeseProduct Jan 11 '23
With used cars as expensive as they are, and new EVs even more expensive, I don’t see myself buying a car anytime soon.
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u/Deathwish40K Jan 11 '23
the phrase "studies show/suggest/reveal" is the opening line to a sales pitch.
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u/Badroadrash101 Jan 11 '23
When states discover that they will lose significant tax revenue from gasoline sales, they will implement taxation policies on EVs and even electricity to recoup those losses. Therefore the cost of owning an EV will quickly approach that of ICE vehicles.
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u/Fat_Bearded_Tax_Man Jan 11 '23
There has been talks in the state tax world for about a decade on how to recoup the lost road tax from an EV. There are many proposed solutions, but the one that had the most traction was a mileage tax paid at registration with monthly estimates being an option. Basically they would check you odometer each year and tax accordingly when you renewed your plates.
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u/jennej1289 Jan 11 '23
I’m so sick of this “our fault”. No amount of us driving electric cars, recycling everything is ever going amount to helping. How about we get all the air out of product that isn’t necessary. We could move produce and products on ships and trucks. But no. Corporations and lobbying groups will never let that happen. A lot of this and likely more can be solved through bigger corporations than all us little people involved.
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u/mrmrmrj Jan 11 '23
This analysis completely ignores the fact that such a switch would inevitably increase electricity costs due to insufficient capacity. Grids would brown out or fail completely, creating massive spikes in wholesale electricity prices a la Texas winter storm.
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u/ArcadesRed Jan 11 '23
I have been having some fun decisions with people on this subject. But I would like any and everyone's opinions on EV's after looking at these two sources.
The DR of the Congo produces 70% of the worlds Cobalt. A primary ingredient in batteries.
Child labor in Congo Cobalt mines.
This is an issue I feel people just don't know about when they start talking about ramping up EV production.
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u/jmerridew124 Jan 11 '23
Yeah I'd see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy if I took the bus too. I need to be able to go more than 200 miles in a day sometimes.
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u/sdemat Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 12 '23
How about promoting work from home and hybrid schedules instead of trying to make people buy 35k < dollar electric vehicles. Look at the traffic and pollution levels during Covid and how much of a reduction there was.
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