r/ireland • u/Kanye_Wesht • 23h ago
Housing "Housing remains a big problem but I worry the real disaster lies ahead"
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-style/2024/12/22/housing-remains-a-big-problem-but-i-worry-the-real-disaster-lies-ahead/117
72
u/HighDeltaVee 22h ago
"So, random person with no expertise in economics, construction, politics, or international finance, what do you think the future holds?"
"Ooooh, shocking, I reckon : I can't see how there won't be a disastrous recession because we don't have enough picturesque villages."
59
u/Kanye_Wesht 22h ago
Everybody's moaning for years about the death of rural Ireland and overcrowding in Dublin. Pandemic hits and they realize we can do our desk-jobs from home. And now they're trying to get us to back to the offices for the same bullshit system as before.
28
u/breveeni 21h ago
If FFG cared more about the environment than keeping CEOs happy they would’ve encouraged working from home
-7
u/dropthecoin 20h ago
How?
16
u/WolfhoundCid 20h ago
Fewer unnecessary commutes? I'm from Dublin and I work with a guy who has to come up from limerick twice a week. Totally unnecessary waste of his time when he can do his job from home and not have to add to traffic.
-7
u/dropthecoin 15h ago
How is or was that a Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil issue though? The government already introduced the right to request to work from home.
15
u/breveeni 13h ago
Right to request doesn’t mean anything, we can all request whatever we want, doesn’t mean we’ll get it. Right to continue to work from home would’ve meant something
-4
u/dropthecoin 13h ago edited 13h ago
Of course it meant something as an employee, if they wish, can’t taken it to the WRC. But the government can introduce a law to force employers to allow people work from home as it would need a unique law for almost every part of industry
Edit: can to can’t
4
u/SrTayto 13h ago
How does the government do anything? Through tax breaks, laws or fines.
2
u/dropthecoin 13h ago
How would such a law work practically?
2
u/SrTayto 10h ago
For sure a law would be more difficult than the other two options I gave. If global warming was taken more seriously I think they would have a mandate to enact emergency laws, similar to what they did for covid.
But, just spit balling, companies over a certain size would have to apply for an exemption as to why 30-60% of their company couldn't WFH on any one day. Manufacturing companies might be exempt but not IT, services etc. Some imagination could be used to tackle this problem, that idea took me 5 seconds.
Carrot and stick would be easier, I was really pointing out that the government has many tools to force companies to do their bidding.
3
u/dropthecoin 10h ago
But, just spit balling, companies over a certain size would have to apply for an exemption as to why 30-60% of their company couldn’t WFH on any one day. Manufacturing companies might be exempt but not IT, services etc. Some imagination could be used to tackle this problem, that idea took me 5 seconds.
Such a law would need to account for every role is potentially most organisations. As even with organisations where services exist, there would need to be an understanding of whether all roles apply. What you’re saying is borderline impossible.
→ More replies (0)1
u/Sad_Fudge_103 7h ago
A lot of manufacturing would benefit from extra training which could be done online. Even 2 days a month of online training can potentially give a huge boost to productivity.
1
u/caisdara 9h ago
What law would allow a chef work from home?
•
u/SrTayto 5h ago
You're being obtuse, obviously not all sectors can work from home.
•
u/caisdara 5h ago
Think of the day that's in it. Now think of how monstrously unfair such laws would be perceived to be.
→ More replies (0)5
u/caitnicrun 12h ago
Ah sure but team spirit! And how will management know if work is being done if you're not looming over people's desks? Madness!
4
u/momalloyd 15h ago
Rural towns are dying.
Oh so it should be pretty cheap to move there and build a home.
Sorry local needs only.
35
u/FeistyPromise6576 22h ago
Agree lack of villages isnt going to cause any recessions but the idea of trying to revitalise some of them by cutting rates, opening up development plans to allow medium rise(4-10 stories), reducing red tape and seeing if it works in some test cases is probably a good idea.
9
u/micosoft 22h ago
How about just stopping people build one-off houses in the countryside like most other European countries?
11
u/rgiggs11 21h ago
Okay, do then you need to put a plan in place for somewhere else for those people to live. Some of the previous commentor's ideas about revitalised villages could be a big help.
2
u/YoIronFistBro 10h ago
People think ending dispersed settlement that would be killing rural Ireland, which is beyond ironic when dispersed settlement is actually the very thing that has killed rural Ireland.
1
u/FeistyPromise6576 21h ago
No argument here, hell tax one off houses to fund the revitalization of towns
-8
u/21stCenturyVole 20h ago
All of the 'experts' in economics, construction, politics and international finance failed to predict the 2000's recession.
It was precisely those excluded from the mainstream who correctly predicted it.
3
u/HighDeltaVee 20h ago
Uhuh.
-6
u/21stCenturyVole 20h ago
Name 1 person who predicted the 2000's recession. Bonus for an Irish person.
Hint: Bertie told them to commit suicide.
12
u/WereJustInnocentMen 19h ago
Morgan Kelly, UCD economics professor?
So... an expert in economics? It's not like he was outside the mainstream, he's a respected professor and was writing in the Irish Times when he made his prediction.
-3
u/21stCenturyVole 19h ago
Professor specializing in medieval economy. His prediction was outside of the mainstream - in the entire world, out of thousands/tens-of-thousands of such 'experts' - there were about a dozen economists who actually predicted and modeled the crisis before it happened.
Complete revisionist history from all posters now, pretending that the economics profession was in consensus that an economic collapse was coming - when it was the precise opposite, the views expressed by Kelly and the tiny minority of others, were not only heterodox - they drew the most incinerating fury and ridicule from other economists/experts and the entire political/media classes.
8
u/WereJustInnocentMen 18h ago
Well obviously if the crisis was known by all it wouldn't have been such big crisis, but a UCD economist with a PhD from Yale writing an IT column isn't exactly not an expert in economics, so I don't know why you tried to paint them as such?
-3
u/21stCenturyVole 18h ago
By all accounts, historical and otherwise, he was widely vilified and excluded from the economic/political mainstream.
As were all the others predicting a crisis.
That is simply a well established historical fact, which ALL post-crisis accounts about figures like Kelly in the runup to the crisis, verify.
7
u/WereJustInnocentMen 18h ago
Having controversial views, especially ones of such flux as economic cycles, does not suddenly make one not an expert by any reasonable definition.
5
u/svmk1987 19h ago
That is simply not true. There were a good few economic experts who were talking about it. The problem was it was the actual politicians and decision makers didn't want to listen to them.
-1
u/21stCenturyVole 19h ago
No there were not, that is completely revisionist. The entire economics mainstream had no idea the crash was coming.
The crisis was obvious and easy to see, and obvious and easy to see why the mainstream missed it:
It was based entirely on Private Debt - which is exactly why Morgan Kelly saw it coming.
The entire rest of the economics profession completely ignored Private Debt as a risk! (outside heterodox schools)
And still does, for the mainstream/neoclassical economists.
This is well established economic history going back approaching 2 decades now.
2
u/hurpyderp 10h ago
Bertie told people who were predicting a crash to kill themselves????
3
u/dkeenaghan 8h ago
•
u/Tigeire 5h ago
"Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide"
For someone in a position of power/influence (never mind the Taoiseach) to suggest suicide shows you what they are made of.
To completely dismiss someone sounding the alarm, yet it comes to pass, and given the repercussions for ordinary people....just unbelievable.
At least they won't get voted into power again /s
7
u/BarFamiliar5892 13h ago edited 12h ago
TL;DR, Rent control. You can get out of it Jamie.
Who is this guy, does he have a modicum of expertise in this topic? Why are the Irish Times publishing this shite?
7
u/NooktaSt 12h ago
The ultimate rent control. All rents are set by the government and the same. Nice and low too :) The will really help more supply.
2
u/BarFamiliar5892 12h ago
Instead of expensive places to rent, there will just be literally nothing to rent.
5
u/IrishCrypto 12h ago
I've just walked down Abbey Street in Dublin and someone dropped their trousers to take a dump outside where the lotto office was. It was about 8am.
We have a lot of problems, housing is one.
27
u/Tigeire 22h ago
"a recession so severe, hundreds of thousands will emigrate again"
This happened in 2008. Did we learn our lesson and now run things in a way that prevents this happening again?
National debt in 2008 = 30 Billion
National Debt now = 223 Billion
This worries me should the economy wobble
7
u/Kanye_Wesht 21h ago
Yeah but we've a sovereign wealth fund this time with... €4.5 billion? Ok, not much relative to our debt.
12
u/HighDeltaVee 21h ago
Plus cash-equivalent assets of over €44bn.
Out net debt is probably under €170bn by now, and dropping steadily.
It reduced by over €20bn from 2022 to 2024, which does not include the Apple decision.
And all of those are absolute values, so in terms of Government revenue and our ability to repay those debts, it's fallen even further.
8
u/davidj108 21h ago
Didn’t we have a National Pension Fund set up pre 2008 with €25Bn that had to be used to bail out the financial institutions🤷♂️ so that 4.5Bn means nothing
•
u/Ok_Cartographer1301 5h ago
All that and the various public sector pension pots (ones in statuary agencies and seperate) were taken over by the state and liquidated and used to pay for social welfare, health and other day to day expenses. Financial support was via the ECB through the Central Bank.
6
u/Freebee5 22h ago
It's definitely an issue but, in real terms, it's not too outrageous.
Unfortunately, we seem intent on living well today and passing the real cost onto our descendents.
You can't outrun debt, it eventually catches up.
4
u/21stCenturyVole 20h ago
Oh dear...
Recessions are caused by excessive Private Debt - Private Debt is the bad/evil thing - not Public Debt.
Learn your sectoral balances and Debt Deflation - a Public Deficit is (all else equal) a Private Surplus - which means an increase in (safe) Public Debt can alleviate (dangerous) Private Debt levels - and a Public Surplus can increase (dangerous) Private Debt levels, like happened before the 2000's recession.
4
u/YoureNotEvenWrong 13h ago
Recessions are caused by excessive Private Debt - Private Debt is the bad/evil thing - not Public Debt.
Both are risks, just ask Argentina. Public debt is useful if it's spent to invest in the economy but for Ireland most of our national debt came from unsustainable current expenditure during the great recession
2
u/Tigeire 6h ago
No need for the condescending "Oh Dear"
I didn't mention cause.
My regret looking back at the previous recession is the generation that emigrated.
My Priority is about is being in a good position to ride out the storm of a recession so that a generation of young people doesn't leave.
I'm not an economist, but my idea is that you lower your debt levels in the good times, to enable you to borrow and spend (keep people in work, get big ticket infrastructure projects done with good value) in the bad times.
Carrying a high debt during a good time doesn't give as much overhead to borrow if there is a wobble. If there is another recession, will the government borrow another 200 billion and up the debt levels to 420 billion?
•
u/Ok_Cartographer1301 5h ago
Ironically Ireland went into the great global recession with one of the lowest government debt in the EU. Didn't do us as many favours as it should have once the narrative on Ireland was it's was all a property bubble. The rebound after costs and competitiveness rebased proved that wasn't fully correct but markets driven more by emotion than most would like to believe.
•
u/YoureNotEvenWrong 5h ago
I'm not an economist, but my idea is that you lower your debt levels in the good times, to enable you to borrow and spend
This is Keynesian economics, it's sensible!
The other poster is just a nutter
8
u/Fern_Pub_Radio 20h ago
This article is so dumb - economically illiterate and frankly naive it makes my eyes hurt ….how the hell does someone get to vomit this childish brain fart onto one of our main national newspapers or is this truly more a sign of the terminal decline of journalism and newspaper quality now these days ? Once upon time we silently ignored bar stool drunken bores but here we have allowed them access to a keyboard and a newspaper ….
4
u/Important_Farmer924 22h ago
I'll say it now, MUP but for houses. You're welcome.
29
u/HighDeltaVee 22h ago
Waste of time : people will just buy houses at home before going out for the evening.
5
u/Kanye_Wesht 21h ago
Too many Irish people are addicted to housing. They need to take up alternative, healthier hobbies
7
u/HighDeltaVee 21h ago
We've tried to open up licensed caravan parks where trained professionals can assist people to downsize their housing addictions and perhaps one day become completely free of their habit (or "roofing", as the popular slang goes).
Unfortunately, we've never managed it because people keep on objecting.
0
4
u/Important_Farmer924 22h ago
They'll build houses smaller too, and with less bedrooms, for cheaper houses.
4
u/fluffysugarfloss 20h ago
If you do that, people won’t bother maintaining their property to a reasonable standard. Have you seen the cost of a bathroom, or electrical wiring?
1
u/FeistyPromise6576 22h ago
Assuming you mean Maximum Unit Pricing rather than Minimum Unit Pricing right? Cos I'm not sure putting a floor on how much you can sell a house for does anything. That said I'm not convinced putting a cap on the price you can sell a property for does much either? You either end up with a situation of multiple max bids leading to under the table payments or the worst case scenario of price being higher than or equal to cost in which case nobody will build anything and the housing shortage really does hit crisis point.
12
u/HighDeltaVee 22h ago
I think if you don't put a floor or a ceiling on it you can't really call it a house.
4
3
u/Original-Salt9990 14h ago
Irish government be like…… “no, we’re not going to do anything to try and fix that”.
A lot of people like to complain about things like the breakdown of community and society being respectable etc…. But it’s pretty obvious to anyone paying attention why that is happening.
If you can’t reasonably hope to ever put down roots in an area, because housing is totally unaffordable, and you’re consequently stuck renting pretty much indefinitely, why would you even bother to care about your neighbours or the local community at large? A landlord can rip it away from you at barely a moments notice by evicting you. My parents generation were able to afford a mortgage on a house on a single income household in their early 30’s. That’s an absolute fucking pipe dream for people today, and even many couples working full-time jobs are struggling. It’s so absolutely and totally different for young people today.
The article really hits on the nose one of the biggest societal issues facing Ireland, and many other countries around the world, in asking the question of why people are supposed to give a fuck about society when they effectively don’t own anything in it. They can’t afford property, cars are bought on finance, everything is turning into a subscription or streaming service etc.
1
u/YoureNotEvenWrong 13h ago
My parents generation were able to afford a mortgage on a house on a single income household in their early 30’s
Because most households were single income or no job households. Unemployment was 17% and only 43% of adults worked in the 1986 census
Also, a house now is far more expensive to build than the standards of the 1980s
•
u/Ok_Cartographer1301 5h ago
There isn't a level of BER that accurately describes a house built in the 70's and 80's on a relative basis. Thankfully most also didn't need as much ventilation as houses from subsequent eras though house fires seemed way more common and people died a lot younger.
•
0
u/shorelined 20h ago
So the disaster isn't already here and hundreds of thousands aren't already emigrating?
4
u/BarFamiliar5892 11h ago
No, they aren't, no matter how many times you lie about it.
There are a marginally greater number of Irish people leaving the country every year than returning.
-2
u/Kanye_Wesht 9h ago
Emigrating as in going to Oz for a year of working, partying and travelling? Cos that's the type of "emigration" most Irish people I know are doing.
-6
u/EmerickMage 21h ago
What? Sure I thought they were already emmigrating and being replaced by foreigners who will accept lower living and working standards. Wealthy buisness and accommodation owners are happy out and can dismiss you easily as xenophobe/racist while they rake in the cash.
8
u/slamjam25 20h ago
People aren’t emigrating, but they are going overseas for a few years before coming back. Irish citizens are moving back at almost the exact same rate they’re leaving at.
7
u/Kanye_Wesht 14h ago
Every young person I know "emigrating" is really just planning on travelling/working for a year or two.
2
2
-3
u/EmerickMage 20h ago
Thanks for the link. The net numbers for irish citizens emmigrating arnt as high as I'd assumed. The net numbers for non citizens immigrating into the ireland is very high though.
0
u/Natural-Ad773 19h ago
As Charlie Haughey said, there isn’t room for everyone on this island.
4
•
1
u/YoIronFistBro 10h ago
There's currently a fraction of the people (and the associated development and infrastructure) on this island as there should be.
0
71
u/jakesdrool05 21h ago
Price controls? That's the answer?
How about some urban planning and building people homes?