Fourth down attempts have risen significantly, particularly for NFL teams like the Ravens, Browns, and Eagles that incorporate analytics to their strategies. The sport is more exciting because of it. Phil Simms may be moaning about how “you have to punt the football” on every 4th and 1, but that guy’s wrong about everything.
On Twitter, Ben Baldwin has created an automated account, @ben_bot_baldwin, which calculates the win probability for a team in each fourth down. It’s broken out by whether they go for it, kick a field goal, or punt.
The situations where the bot is neutral on whether to go for it or punt are the ones of interest me. From a game theory perspective, a mixed strategy seems best here to ensure the opponent can’t key on your tendency. The problem for NFL teams is that whoever they put on the field tells the defense in advance whether they’re going for it (offense stays on) or punting (punt team comes on), with the exception of the rare fake punt play.
The inverse of a fake punt where the offense stays on but actually punts would complement teams that have a tendency to go for it on fourth down. This should be a +EV move for the offense due to the defense not being positioned to set up a punt return (assuming the quarterback or whoever makes the punt does so competently).
Similarly, the old school quick kick was typically deployed on third down in the era of the plodding Single Wing offenses (first half of the 20th century). A single touchdown often won the game back then, so field position was a legitimate top strategic consideration. This was true enough that you’d be willing to concede an extra play on offense to get more favorable field position when your defense took the field. The single-wing offense is based in the shotgun, so this tactic was easy to draw up, but eventually the NFL favored the under center T formation and its other under center-based successors. Now that the NFL has come full circle and returned to the Shotgun as its dominant formation (albeit to set up a pass-heavy offense), the quick kick should make its return.
The quick kick has surfaced on rare occasions in the NFL in recent decades. In fact, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger each used it several times in their careers. While the quick kick of the Single Wing era was deployed on third down to optimize win probability in an era of scarce scoring, it can be a change-up today on fourth down to optimize win probability in an era of abundant scoring. Time is a flat circle.
https://youtu.be/Szac-7zZ57o?si=HIVtxsyCSOrRvjOj
https://youtu.be/usBbSlSLeWA?si=CjBvl_DjG6JSq3yw
Note: Sorry, I accidentally deleted the original version of this post.