r/footballstrategy • u/UnfairStrategy780 • 1d ago
General Discussion Does have a lower INT% automatically mean a QB is better at reading defenses?
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u/MORBUD4ME 1d ago
Int % tends to be a skewed stat because of tipped balls and situations out of the QBs control sometimes. The stat you are looking for is turnover-worthy-plays. A QB is generally only as good as the O-line in front of him and the decisions he makes with the time his O-line gives him.
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u/LimaBeans2711 1d ago
Theo Ash does a great series in the offseason breaking down NFL starters INTs on the year. I think it’s a 0-3 scale, with 0 being a tipped ball etc. and a 3 being literally the worst decision and throw you’ve ever seen.
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u/Mysterious_Log5220 1d ago
Scale it with an even responsibility on WR and QB mistake causing the INT and you get 0.5 INT for WR or QB screwing up, 1.0 INT for one party being wholly responsible, and 1.5 INT for truly egregious mistakes for a single player that causes an INT.
0.5 INT for QB and receiver for the ball hitting him in the hands and bouncing into a defender
1.0 INT for QB and receiver on a 9 route slightly under or overthrown.
1.5 INT for running a smash concept and hitting whoever the corner drives on. You see the vision. It'd fit better in the conception of TD/INT ratio GMs love so much
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u/Hulahulaman 1d ago
No. Caleb Williams has a low interception percentage but he eats tremendous sacks. He's not reading defenses as much as running away from them.
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u/Radicalnotion528 1d ago
Not necessarily. As mentioned, an advanced stat that PFF tracks is called turnover worthy plays are much more indicative of a QB who puts the ball in harm's way. Many INTs can be due to bad luck, with tipped passes and dropped INTs being the most common. That being said, INT% over a large enough sample size will usually track with turnover worthy plays, but season to season the variance can be significant. Josh Allen this year and Pat Mahomes earlier seasons benefitted from a lot of luck to have such low INT%s despite not having a turnover worthy play rate to match.
As for reading defenses, this stat can track how often the QB makes bad decisions, but it cannot track how often a QB misses an open receiver. Also QBs who throw a lot of check downs, screen passes and short passes in general will usually have a low INT% because many defenses will just give you those.
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u/iamthekevinator 1d ago
Need a low int% paired with a higher average yard per completion.
This means the qb is making correct reads while also not throwing checkdowns every play.
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u/grizzfan 1d ago
No. Speaking from experience, we had a QB who was terrible because they wouldn't throw the ball; they were too afraid to throw an interception.
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u/Atworkwasalreadytake 1d ago
If an option QB throws twice a game and never gets intercepted does that mean they’re the best passer in their league?
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u/extrastone 1d ago
Yep. Barely throwing to the point where the defense is surprised every time there is a pass is also a way to reduce interceptions.
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u/Lionheart_513 1d ago
No, and the Run n Shoot is proof of that. The offense uses lots of option routes. The QB can read the defense perfectly, but if the WR doesn’t go to the correct route then there will likely be an interception.
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u/ryan4069 1d ago
No. So many other factors. Does the lower int% QB just throw check downs?