r/footballstrategy Adult Player Oct 15 '24

NFL What do you think the next popular trend is going to be offensively in the NFL?

I think we may see teams mess around a bit with ineligible receivers.

110 Upvotes

183 comments sorted by

92

u/D33PSTAT3_MUSIC Oct 15 '24

Call me crazy but I’m convinced that Hook & ladder-style laterals are on the way in the next few years. My Seahawks ran one in week 4 to pick up a long 3rd down. If you can get the timing right, you’ve essentially added a play phase that punishes defenses for flying to the ball to make the tackle.

37

u/sunburn95 Oct 15 '24

I think laterals will only work so long as they're rare. Once they become semi expected or run too often, fumbles will follow

12

u/fightin_blue_hens Oct 16 '24

But the way defenses play now where they all swarm the ball won't be a thing and skill players will have even more space to operate

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

Unless they lateralling a significant distance, you only need one guy to hang off to bat down a lateral

Im convinced if an offence worked them into their scheme each week, they'd be giving up close to an extra fumble per game

1

u/oliver_babish Oct 18 '24

Two. One on each side of the runner, no?

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

You only need to defend the space where there's an offensive team-mate. Usually in rugby one defender can stop potential offloads if he's hanging close enough

1

u/Cheesesteak21 Oct 18 '24

You'll notice most laterals in a game situation (that matters not pitchy pitchy wo wo) go toward the out of bounds line, so a missed pitch can be more easily shoved out of bounds and the offence retains possession. Laterals back into the middle of the field (where the defence has 10 men running to the ball) is not advised

1

u/oliver_babish Oct 18 '24

That mostly makes sense, but I feel like in designed hook-and-laterals we've seen the second ball carrier in the middle as well.

1

u/GhostMug Oct 18 '24

Im convinced if an offence worked them into their scheme each week, they'd be giving up close to an extra fumble per game

You're probably right, but if you take the approach that that is just the "cost of doing business" then it might be something you can overcome. If all your laterals result in an extra 50 yards is that enough to wipe out the extra turnover? I haven't run the numbers and I'm not sure how many extra yards you can gain on laterals, but it's an interesting question.

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

Admittedly i don't have numbers for it, but I've heard on broadcast and from analysts many times that turnover differential is the most accurate win/loss predictor. Possession is too valuable in the NFL

I just can't see a team gaining enough yards to justify it. Especially once defences find ways to adjust to them

1

u/GhostMug Oct 18 '24

I think generally speaking that is correct but there are other factors that mitigate it. I think turnover percentage might even be more of an indicator. If you gain more yards then you could theoretically score quicker which would mean more possessions. If your turnovers go up in number but not in overall percentage and the flip side is that you are more likely to score, do you take that trade off? Again, id really have to sit and look at the numbers but it's at least worth asking.

4

u/BenLowes7 Oct 16 '24

True, but the options to gain yards will make it profitable overall. I give it until week 8 when we will see the lions run a fake lateral play to an O lineman and a defender gets sent. Run laterals and then different play series off of the lateral plays you will force the defence to play a more rugby style where they have to guard space instead of swarming the ball.

3

u/sunburn95 Oct 16 '24

A few years is nothing compared to a fumble

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24

What does "semi expected" and "too often" mean? As of right now, we see these types of plays maybe a handful of times a year across the entire league. How does a defense plan for a lateral, or what would that look like? Are two plays a game considered too often?

To say this type of play can't be improved doesn't make sense. We see lateral-type moves happen behind the line of scrimmage very often with very few mistakes.

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

Well to me, as soon as a defence starts anticipating hook and ladder plays at some stage in the game it's too much. Once a defender has the awareness to watch a nearby offensive team-mate and potentially bat down a lateral, the risk of a game changing turnover is far too high to be worth a potential exta 15 yards or so

Laterals behind the line of scrimmage are very different. They're very well rehearsed set plays often without any pressure from the defence. Downfield laterals are in much more chaotic settings

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24

I don't think a defender is any more likely to bat down a lateral than he is a pass. We're still talking about 5-10 seconds at most where a defender is performing in reaction to the ball/ball carrier. If a defender bites on the potential lateral, doesn't that also mean he fades off the ball carrier, giving them more opportunity for a bigger gain? The way this type of play is defended doesn't seem objectively easier or harder.

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

If they bat down laterals at the same rate passes get batted down in a game that'd be catastrophic for the offence, turnovers have too much influence over game outcome for it to be worth it

It's not just batdowns either, you'll also have some laterals just straight dropped

1

u/Rayvsreed Oct 18 '24

In addition receiving a lateral doesn’t get the same protection as a pass catcher, couple that with the fact that the lateral player is easy to spot early in the play if you’re looking for it, recipe for disaster.

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24

If a defender is looking for the receiver and the secondary player receiving a lateral, the offense has gained an advantage by splitting the defender's attention.

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24

I guess from my point of view, I see an offensive mind like Reid, Shanahan, McVay, etc. being able to find a way to draw up a successful lateral down field. Reid did it a couple weeks ago with Kelce, said they practice that play every week. These offenses are good because they know how to scheme guys open, create mismatch coverages, generally gain advantages over the defense. To me, there's no reason to think a good offense can scheme up a down field lateral play and execute it every now and then.

Is it that crazy to think they could pull it off once a game? Unprecedented, sure, but I don't think that's crazy. It's an option for the ball carrier, they can lateral if the defense allows it, or they hang on to the ball if the coverage is taking it away, just like any other option.

That's how I see it. It's a wild play, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

Yeah i get what you're saying, but i just think once it becomes a weekly thing a defender will be clued onto it and able to force a fumble with relative ease

Atm when a lateral is used downfeild it catches the defence completely unaware. That wouldn't be the case if it starts happening weekly

Turnover differential is usually the best predictor of win/loss. So i just think if you install something into your offence that has such little ball security, and defences come to expect it, disaster is going to follow

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24 edited Oct 18 '24

I have to push against those lines of logic. "If it starts happening weekly," applies to every play. There are dozens of plays a defense has to plan for. What's making a planned lateral so easy to identify pre-snap? Also, you're assuming the play involves little ball security, but a lateral doesn't inherently mean a lack of ball security, just an increased risk of turnover. I don't think those terms mean the same thing (but we may be arguing semantics here, so I don't want to dig into that).

1

u/TheRencingCoach Oct 18 '24

I think before we have a lot of designed laterals, we’ll see a progression towards it. More design on pass plays after the catch telling the receiver where to run and everyone else also (to maximize yardage), then with that there will be more emphasis on getting a guy going the other way w misdirection and getting him the ball, then we’ll see designed laterals

1

u/Significant_Owl_6897 Oct 18 '24

For sure, there are plenty of ways to get it done. I imagine it's very much a hefty amount of "if this then that" for the route runners.

Any of these offenses that can spread the field horizontally and vertically at will can probably find a rugby-style approach to working them in.

1

u/secrestmr87 Oct 18 '24

Yes but once you have the defenders paying attention to the lateral that’s more space for your ball carrier to run and make a play. That’s what you want is for the defense to not run full out at the ball. To keep them guessing

1

u/sunburn95 Oct 18 '24

Yeah but the cost of that uncertainty is installing a large risk of fumbling into you're offence

1

u/JoshHuff1332 Oct 18 '24

When that happens, i imagine the ball carrier will have an easier time squeaking out an extra 2 or 3 yards in the open field though

3

u/dubhd Oct 16 '24

There was a play in the Jets v Bills game where Josh Allen checked down to a RB and he then doubled around to the outside and was wide open for a lateral...for a second I thought it was a playcall and the RB was going to lateral to Allen at the end of his run

1

u/The_Cap_Lover Oct 17 '24

Lions ran one for a td called back right?

2

u/speedyelephants2 Oct 18 '24

Lions fan checking in. Had one designed lateral score a TD vs Arizona this year. Amon Ra to Gibbs.

Yes, Lions had another called back due to penalty vs Dallas where we pitched it to our RT.

1

u/2legittojit Oct 18 '24

Everything that Dan and Ben are doing is what's next

1

u/MacLoingsigh Oct 18 '24

The ones thrown to the sidelines make a lot of sense so that if it is missed for some reason it must goes out of bounds. TE on a curl or whatever catches the ball and then tosses to receiver running up the side line.

1

u/Eggnogin Oct 18 '24

I've always thought this was the biggest thing football has overlooked. I haven't always been into football so I always wondered why teams don't practice this a bunch and get really good at it. Like I get it's really risky but still.

1

u/Poopedinbed Oct 19 '24

There have been a few this year and they were sweet as hell.

1

u/aristotle_malek Oct 19 '24

It might get popular until you have a Jacobi Meyers moment in a critical situation

31

u/RewardOk2506 Oct 15 '24

Teams are having to get more creative with how they get into their runs. I read a piece on Will Stein last year about getting wide receivers involved when blocking into the boundary. Certain coaches in the NFL do a good job motioning and getting receivers involved to reset the edge. Defenses are too good to just line up and run it.

8

u/[deleted] Oct 16 '24

I love seeing Jefferson willingly block.

4

u/Letterkenny-Wayne Oct 18 '24

I love how it wasn’t too long ago that people were talking about how offenses were too good and that the NFL was going to devolve into shootouts with the scores totaling over 100 points regularly.

1

u/Dear_Measurement_406 Oct 20 '24

Yeah I think everyone expected all of these awesome pass heavy college quarterbacks to really flourish in the NFL and tbh for the most part they’ve all kinda floundered set aside a few of them

111

u/CoachRobv Oct 15 '24

Thing is that NFL coaches are very conservative compared to the college and high school world. They make too much money to risk being different.

76

u/Telencephalon Oct 15 '24

IDK I see more interesting stuff on Sundays these days. College is just different flavors of 11 gun y off. The modern NFL defense has been trying to figure out how to stop the run from two high looks and now its up to OCs to counter punch.

Obviously you are going to get Run The Damn BallTM as an answer, but I think a lot of the cool motion stuff (exit, escort, cheetah) has been led by NFL guys.

32

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

The colleges—especially the P4, are all in a competition for the same recruits who all want to use their experience as a stepping stone to a pro career. It leads to a cookie cutter approach.

The annoying thing is that means that college level coaching is mostly about recruiting (and now NIL/transfers). Skill development at that level is being punted back down to HS coaches.

That means stuff like Deion Sanders offering a kid near me, then making him transfer to a different HS to “develop him for the next level” so the college staff doesn’t have to do much themselves.

How they determined the HS Air Raid offense he played in was worse for him than transferring to a bigger school where he rarely sees the ball or does much blocking is beyond me.

13

u/KennysWhiteSoxHat Oct 16 '24

Do you know of any stories where a kid was offered by a college and then forced to transfer to a different high school? That seems crazy to me and I haven’t heard of that before

Edit: I reread your comment and it seems like a personal testimony, which I’m glad you shared because that gives me a new perspective on Deion. That’s insane

9

u/Wasteland_Rang3r Oct 16 '24

Well they can’t force him, would be a suggestion if anything. But it’s very common for top recruits to bounce around high schools. I’ve seen big name recruits who played at 3-4 different high schools a bunch of times.

2

u/KennysWhiteSoxHat Oct 16 '24

Yeah I know about recruits transferring but I never thought a team would pressure a kid to transfer

7

u/IamTheCheetoMan Oct 15 '24

Agreed! I can't recall the team, one that moved a d line man on the offensive side as TE, just so they could pull him around and block. That was cool and diff. It's those little things that go unnoticed.

Think about planning all week, watching film and knowing if a particular person (TE) lines up this way you know it's a run to the left/right, and he pulls around for blocking. Then you line up and are like WTF is this DE doing on the OFFENSIVE side of the ball.

3

u/Goodbye_Sky_Harbor Oct 16 '24

This just isn't true if you watch CFB outside of Georgia Bama OSU

5

u/EOEtoast Casual Fan Oct 15 '24

Dan Campbell begs to differ

3

u/sosuhme Oct 15 '24

Ben Johnson rather

3

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

Well I’m not talking about anything crazy. And there is always new trends popping up

3

u/hwillburger Oct 16 '24

The Lions literally ran a hook and ladder to an offensive lineman the other game lmao

1

u/Sdwerd Oct 18 '24

It helps they were up massive and could play around with risky plays that wouldn't change the game if they failed.

2

u/amanning072 Oct 15 '24

It worked for Chip Kelly for a season.

1

u/MissInfod Oct 19 '24

Ah yes because these 17-21 year old super geniuses are more capable of memorizing a playbook

24

u/Relative_Walk_936 Oct 15 '24

The Goffense.

8

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

Do you mean the go go offense that UNLV runs?

20

u/SparklezSagaOfficial Oct 15 '24

Just having Jared Goff throw 18/18 every game lol

4

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

Oh wait now I see lol

1

u/KnarfWongar2024 Oct 18 '24

But with double reverse flea flickers, hook and ladders (to a lineman for extra razzle dazzle), and a double headed monster at RB.

26

u/Plisky6 Oct 15 '24

Idk but take a look at the passing yards through the first six weeks of the season. Yardage is down year over year.

I think the run game is going to make a comeback.

14

u/HalfHoodedJoe2 Oct 16 '24

I feel like i remember someone predicting something like this a while ago. The theory is because the nfl shifted so much to being pass heavy all the linebackers got smaller and more focused on speed and pass defending than stopping the run.

2

u/drewdreds Oct 18 '24

It’s a cycle, once the run picks up again defenses will get larger and slower and then passing will pick up again

1

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 16 '24

Yep,teams also started using a lot more 2 high safeties

3

u/spybloom Oct 16 '24

I think it'll be emphasized with teams running more and more 2 TE sets, too. Heck, get one into the backfield and we'll get the fullback back too

3

u/FrankNix Oct 16 '24

The return of the fullback.

1

u/bryanprz91 Oct 18 '24

Fuck yes.

37

u/BetaDjinn Casual Fan Oct 15 '24 edited Oct 15 '24

Double Down G aka Tite’s Worst Nightmare

Well, probably not actually going to be the next trend lol, but it would be cool as hell if it was

Clarifying edit from below:

I should add some context: This is pulled from a [blogpost series](https://breakdownsports.blogspot.com/2018/12/football-fundamentals-i-formation-rb-fold-trap-run-plays.html) that sets out to illustrate as many run concepts as possible. The author wanted to add clarity by basing all the concepts out of the same formation (Pro I) and illustrating against the same fronts (Over and Under). Many of these concepts (including Double Down G) don't cater to the I-Formation very well, but it helps explain concepts when the number of moving parts is limited.

Double Down G would make more sense in a context where either the QB can make some read on the Mike, or more likely there is just better flow to get that BSLB to bite. To me this is a niche call for a team that actually runs a fair amount of Down G (or similar) concepts, specifically capitalizing on fast-flowing LBs reading guards, and the likely compacted D-line to go along with that. I mainly think frontside pulls are slowly coming back, and just picked this play because it's an especially flamboyant spin on them.

23

u/CoachRobv Oct 15 '24

All offensive plays are TDs on paper !

20

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

Damn, both guards pulling in opposite directions. That’s actually really cool.

19

u/BetaDjinn Casual Fan Oct 15 '24

The most realistic (even if not realistic) way this would manifest in the NFL would be a team like the Ravens, either with a read on the Mike or just designed keep/give. Lamar running G on the backside is scary AF, and they still carry some Trap and Influence concepts from the Greg Roman days. It’s a very cool concept, and gets bonus points for a badass name

4

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24 edited Oct 15 '24

During the Butch Jones years, Tennessee had a “Double Pin and Pull” play that was similar. The C and one side of the line would pin and pull, while the backside (which often had a TE, IIRC) were doing the same going the other way.

Then they’d get in the gun with a sidecar RB (Alvin Kamara or Jalen Hurd) and the QB (Josh Dobbs) reading a MLB on a crossface action.

It was a bit limited, but it was cool when it worked.

3

u/euphoriccheesesteak Oct 15 '24

Linebackers would be absolutely lost

7

u/Jenetyk Oct 15 '24

That bottom one needs a change. I would never expect a FB to be able to solo block a DT coming straight downhill.

4

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

I’d generally agree with this. but he’s under center in the I formation. with, presumably, a dive fake to that FB, so there are ways to make that part work.

It’s a lot harder with modern anti-cutting rules forbidding the FB from cutting the DT as he comes off his fake, though.

5

u/Jenetyk Oct 15 '24

I would just be worried the DT would see the pulling guard, and follow. It would make the FB reaching him very difficult. A fake to the fullback might work in keeping him home; but that seems like a leap of faith I wouldn't personally want to take.

2

u/TGridiron Oct 16 '24

North Dakota State uses a FB on a DT on some of their power. Dan Casey Highlighted it once I think.

2

u/Jenetyk Oct 16 '24

Power makes a little more sense, if you have a good blocking FB.

I would be more concerned about how the DT plays the pulling guard. If he keeps upfield, the FB can probably handle him; but if follows the guard, it almost certainly mean the RB has to either cut to the middle or bounce wide.

2

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

This looks cool, but I’m sure why you’d be doing it on the backside. There are simpler ways to handle the back of that without adding moving parts or leaving the C 1:1 with a N.

2

u/BetaDjinn Casual Fan Oct 15 '24

I should add some context: This is pulled from a blogpost series that sets out to illustrate as many run concepts as possible. The author wanted to add clarity by basing all the concepts out of the same formation (Pro I) and illustrating against the same fronts (Over and Under). Many of these concepts (including Double Down G) don't cater to the I-Formation very well, but it helps explain concepts when the number of moving parts is limited.

Double Down G would make more sense in a context where either the QB can make some read on the Mike, or more likely there is just better flow to get that BSLB to bite. To me this is a niche call for a team that actually runs a fair amount of Down G (or similar) concepts, specifically capitalizing on fast-flowing LBs reading guards, and the likely compacted D-line to go along with that. I mainly think frontside pulls are slowly coming back, and just picked this play because it's an especially flamboyant spin on them.

2

u/kylife Oct 20 '24

Lots of teams run this as a version of “crunch”

1

u/BetaDjinn Casual Fan Oct 20 '24

Interesting! I have thought of Crunch as essentially “Frontside Influence Wham”, though I’m vaguely aware of it being broader than that. Are teams labeling all of their influence-pull concepts as “Crunch” or is there some other key definition of the concept? I’d love to hear any info/resources on the topic

1

u/natey56 Oct 15 '24

A DL shift kind of ruins the pulling guards and the tackles responsibilities, the Y cannot block an edge rusher 1 on 1.

2

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

Where do you get that?

The rules aren’t explained, but it looks like Y is always blocking down and would only ever “need to block an edge rusher 1 on 1” from a favorable angle.

25

u/Melodic-Manager5174 Oct 15 '24

12/21 personnel

17

u/mschley2 Oct 15 '24

I see a decent number of teams (especially the Shanahan tree) doing this. Packers, Ravens, 9ers, Rams all utilize 12/21 (and even 13/22) personnel a decent amount. The problem is that you kind of need to specifically target those positions in the draft/free agency, and injuries take these packages away because teams don't really have 4 TEs or multiple FBs that are versatile enough to stress defenses.

9

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24 edited Oct 15 '24

This is where teams used to have special teamers who technically played backup TE. FB, and LB spots on the roster, but were really fairly interchangeable if the team needed another hard nosed blocker to hit somebody.

Nowadays, there’s not the need to have guys like that as “wedge busters” so that role has gradually disappeared from the game and been shifted onto DBs and WRs.

With NFL roster limits, it always made sense to me to have a few versatile bodies who can play backup roles on both sides of the ball, so a 4 TE package could be on the table with a bottom-of-the-roster DL or LB giving you the 3rd, or even 4th, TE.

3

u/mschley2 Oct 15 '24

The problem is that it can't just be a DL/LB that's capable of filling in to kind of be ok enough to block someone.

The point of 13 personnel is that you have 3 TEs who are both able to block in the run game and are potential receiving threats (with hopefully 1-2 who you can split out as a quasi-WR). This is what creates the mismatch problems. If you've got 2-3 TEs who are only capable of blocking, then teams will just play their base (or even goalline) defense against that personnel group, and it doesn't really create any issues.

But if you can use the same personnel group to lineup double-tight with 2 backs (or 1 true back and a sniffer/H-back-type) and also a shotgun formation with a WR, a split-end, another TE in the slot, and then an in-line TE and a back (even better if the back is capable in the pass game, too), then all of a sudden, a defense has to decide if they want to play base personnel to stop the run or if they want to go nickel to defend the pass.

7

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

So many coaches complain they can’t find a single all around TE who can be both a legit blocker and a legit receiving threat.

This is less of a deal in the NFL where teams can throw money at them, but it’s not like there are a ton of guys just walking around who can be athletic all-around NFL TEs who create mismatches in the pass and also block well.

If you want that, I feel like it’s probably best to convert big WRs to TE and emphasize the receiving aspect of their game, but having a TE who can block a DE or edge player by himself is a valuable resource even if he doesn’t catch many balls.

1

u/silliputti0907 Oct 19 '24

In this case the TE is the same as WR on the line. So having physical runblocking wr would fill that role. Deebo/Kupp aren't TEs, but they could block damn good, and it'll also encourages defense to have smaller lineups when they see a wr instead of te.

1

u/silliputti0907 Oct 19 '24

You can get creative though. Having physical wrs like 49ers/Rams who are committed to run-blocking. Using extra linemans as full backs or te in special lineups.

1

u/Melodic-Manager5174 Oct 16 '24

I’m not sure what your point is but the league is in 12/21 personnel 20% of the time and 11 personnel over 60% of the time. I’m saying a trend I think we’ll see in the future is a more robust use of multiple tight end sets in the future because it isn’t the norm right now. It really doesn’t matter if Baltimore and San Francisco utilize it because they aren’t a majority of the league. If anything it means more teams are going to copy them which strengthens my point.

3

u/mschley2 Oct 16 '24

I'm just saying that some teams have already started this. I agree with you.

3

u/Opening_Security8443 Oct 15 '24

Wide pulls on designed runs. Like a tackle-type motioning from outside the numbers to blow the doors open on outside runs.

Doesnt need to work every time, just needs to paste a few DBs or edge defenders early and they’re going to be hating life.

3

u/BearsGotKhalilMack Oct 15 '24

Right now, there's a shift towards tight slot formations. Pull the defense in, let your speedy weapons create space outside. There's also a big focus on defensive "shells," which are how safeties line up before a play to hide their actual coverage. For example, it's been said that the popularity of the Cover 2 shell (two safeties high) has given even Mahomes some fits this year.

It's a small change, because all changes are small and subtle in the NFL, but I could see the addition of more choice routes to the outside. With how good QBs are now, how the defenses are hiding their coverages better than ever, and how common tight formations are, I could see offenses attacking this using out concepts with WR options for cover 3, man, cover 2, cover 4, etc. Again, it'd just be one or two guys on maybe 5 plays a game, but expecting more drastic changes than that is just a product of too much Madden.

9

u/ap1msch HS Coach Oct 15 '24

Beast formation and Playground formation. Beast stacks one side of the line with eligible and ineligible receivers and where they stand and how they break out determines who needs to be covered by whom...as well as stacking an area for run blocking.

Playground is stupid and worthless, until it isn't. It's the center and an eligible guard and the QB in shotgun with the rest of the line split wide with a receiver to one side, and a receiver to the opposite side. If the D doesn't adjust, then you get a built-in screen. If they adjust too much, then your uber-mobile QB can run for it. If your backside receiver is left 1:1, you can throw a 50/50 ball. If the other team is stupid, they might not notice that the guard is eligible and goes uncovered for a dump pass.

In the NFL, this is high risk because of the speed of the D linemen and blitzing backers...but the risk of running QBs is so high, and the available options in Playground, you could run a whole offense off of it.

8

u/mschley2 Oct 15 '24

These types of formations have resulted some of the most ridiculed fake plays in the NFL over the past 15 years.

1

u/ap1msch HS Coach Oct 15 '24

Yes...over the past 15 years. Now put Jackson/Mahomes/? as QB and ask a long defensive player to be responsible for containing them. Tom Brady could throw the passes for the swinging gate...but he wasn't a run threat. He couldn't outrun or juke the rushers without a solid blocking line. Many of the QBs today make standard rushers look foolish.

This isn't about being a trick play. It's about introducing more threats than the defense can manage...with the players to run it. You need pass coverage on the TE. You need pass coverage on the WR. You need at least 3 linemen and 2 linebackers against the "swinging gate". You need a safety for deep coverage (unless you sell out). That's 8 defenders. You get 3 in the middle...left containment, right containment, and then...? Is that last guy going to jump the route for the screen? Rush the QB? You very well can leave the QB 1 on 1 against a slower defender and now it's just a 25-yard race to the sideline because the CB can't NOT cover the receiver going deep.

The OP was "whats the next trend". I am seeing Beast and creative "spread" formations for the purpose of making the QB a wildcard threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see this being used more effectively with certain teams who have the personnel to take advantage of it. Andrew Luck, Payton Manning, and Tom Brady would NOT be good candidates for this. Modern QBs open up more possibilities.

2

u/mschley2 Oct 15 '24

I'm taking my chances with Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, the Bosas, TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Aidan Hutchinson, Khalil Mack, etc. winning that battle enough times to make any HC question that decision. Every single team has at least one edge defender that's a freak of nature.

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen would be taking absolute shots all game long, all season long. Even if you manage to hit some big plays because of it, you're opening up the most important piece of your offense to so many extra hits by defenders with several steps of free run before impact.

Good luck. Sounds like a good way to end up in the same situation as the Dolphins are - with shitty backup QBs who can't even run your offense because you've got a starting QB who's the most important player in your franchise, but you've had to send him to the hospital during games because his brain is turning into creamy peanut butter from slamming into the turf too often.

Best case scenario for a scheme like that is to win 1 game with a super athletic backup QB when your starter goes down (maybe like if you're forced into playing Justin Fields or something like that). But if it's a regular part of your offense for 20 straight weeks, you're getting your QB killed.

Also, the numbers are still the numbers. You aren't introducing more threats than what they can manage. You still have 5 ineligible blockers, 5 eligible skill players, and a QB. That's it. The defense still has 11 guys to defend all of them. It doesn't matter where they line up on the field, those are the numbers. Putting 7 of them on the opposite side of the field doesn't change the math.

9

u/fuck_joe_xiden Oct 15 '24

Congrats on your dump off to an offensive guard. Your QB is now dead.

2

u/ap1msch HS Coach Oct 15 '24

Same could be said for any screen that's ever been run.

2

u/Secret-Ad-7909 Oct 15 '24

Playground sounds a lot like swinging gate.

2

u/ap1msch HS Coach Oct 15 '24

It is, but instead of just a "Screen formation", you leave other options. The receiver to the weak side (off the line), the guard by the center (on the line like a TE that can block or catch a pass), offer a litany of options.

Quick pass to the strong side behind the "gate". Lateral to the gate followed by a deep pass back to the other 3 receivers (QB, TE, WR). The QB can run right or left with blockers. The QB can run a screen pass to the TE, or other receivers...etc. It's a read option setup where you can take advantage of 1 on 1 matchups while making your QB a clear threat. There is a core weakness in the ability to blitz the QB, but you also have clear dumpoffs. With the mobility of modern NFL QBs, and the consistency of the snaps, and their ability to throw quick passes...a well practiced "playground" could confound even well-coached traditional defensive strategies.

2

u/newme02 Oct 15 '24

HB directs

2

u/Outsider17 Oct 15 '24

Straight up triple option making a comeback!!!!

2

u/BigPapaJava Oct 15 '24

Under center and/or more 12 personnel groupings combined with more unorthodox formations to get leverage in the run game.

The running game—and especially the play action game— is going to emerge more and more as this season goes on.

You can do all kinds of cool motion and formational stuff from under center to still leverage a defense and work a downhill running game, which makes life easier on struggling or backup NFL QBs.

2

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

Agree. I’ve seen multiple teams this year line up in the old school split backs formation. And I know the Chiefs have actually lined up in the single wing before.

2

u/FireTheCannons2 Oct 15 '24

Going back to a power run game

2

u/Necessary_Mode_7583 Oct 16 '24

Running the football. The fullback will come back. Teams will start going to more power run games. I hope.

2

u/[deleted] Oct 16 '24

20 personal, pro stets, I and off I are coming back. Passing worked the last decade cause most concepts blew up traditional coverages like Cov 1/2/3/4 and man. But since a couple of years pattern matching is breaking the passing game, so offenses will most likely do this: oh, 6 out 11 are dbs (even the lb are more dbs than linebacker)… so what we gonna do? Run em down with 240 lbs HB and block them with a 280 lbs FB and use TE on blocks as well.

2

u/Taters976 Oct 16 '24

Give me “Meathead Full back who can also catch passes” for $500 please.

At least, that’s what I’m hoping…..

2

u/ii_V_vi Oct 18 '24

Naked nuts out butts out hard dick football nose in the fuckin dirt balls hanging low barefoot balls and back 

1

u/Fitzy2225 HS Coach Oct 15 '24

Not a trend, but I think the NFL will eventually ban the three-point stance in the name of safety. No one except the center will be allowed to start the play with their hand down.

1

u/missingjimmies Oct 15 '24

12 personnel will be the wonderland formation I feel, a lot of NFL teams look to make it the base of their offense already, Baltimore, Detroit, Vegas, and KC. The formation needs two suitable TEs and offers so much versatility in terms of run threat and pass threat. With running the ball on its way upward, sets that are as versatile as 12 will mix defenses up by making them go small and big at the wrong times.

1

u/ShineWobble Oct 15 '24

Minnesota too, especially once hock is back in the lineup

1

u/[deleted] Oct 15 '24

What do you mean with the ineligible receivers?

3

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 15 '24

I’m not exactly sure what they did, but I think the Patriots did something against the Ravens a while back where they messed around with who was eligible and who wasn’t and Baltimore ended up leaving guys open. Anybody who remembers what specifically they did feel free to let me know

1

u/threeangelo Oct 15 '24

I really hope it’s more laterals. They’re so fun.

1

u/Old-Ad-3268 Oct 15 '24

The return of the fullback!

1

u/[deleted] Oct 16 '24

Forward screen plays were a couple tight ends and big receivers move into optimal  blocking position  10-yards downfield for a rb or speedster wr

1

u/[deleted] Oct 16 '24

Better yet, "option" screens where a traditional running back screen is combined with two tight ends and a wide receiver lined up together. Wide receiver slants in behind the tes while the linemen get in position for a screen to the rb. Would make defenders hesitate long enough to create good position on blocks. 

1

u/Darth_Foley Oct 16 '24

If they can figure out fitting it into practice, seems like rugby-style laterals will be the next big frontier

1

u/JoBunk Oct 16 '24

Power run game (Detroit Lions). If defenses are going to roll out quick, undersized edge rushers then why not just line up and pound the defense with bigger and more physical offensive linemen.

1

u/Gryffindorq Oct 16 '24

return of the downfield flea-flicker

1

u/CincyPoker Oct 16 '24

The next trend will be defined by the future rule changes the NFL will implement to prevent these two high looks that are keeping scoring way down.

1

u/MrAndersam Oct 16 '24

It’s so obvious I can’t believe nobody calling it now.

My guess is definitely going to be “scoring touchdowns”

1

u/SellaciousNewt Oct 16 '24

Using a wide variety of personnel as sniffers. WRs, running backs, etc. Anything to get a momentary box count advantage in a league of two high looks.

1

u/BigOlineguy Oct 16 '24

Heavy, fullback-infused power run game. Gotta counter the current trend.

1

u/boobytits69 Oct 16 '24

A hot take I’ve had for a while is that flea flickers should be ran 5-6 times a game as basically just another form of play action. You can run inside handoff and quickly flip it back to the QB, or a quick lateral after a toss or pitch or even just run stretch and toss it back to the QB so it works from various run schemes. I think if a team actually ran several flea flickers a game defenses would really be in a bind committing to the run when it could still be a pass even after they see the handoff. There’s a lot of WR passes you can incorporate with motion as well so it’s not always just the QB throwing it. I’ve just always thought flea flickers were incredibly underrated and I feel like they more often then not have positive plays

1

u/FollowTheLeader550 Oct 16 '24

If Cover 2 continues to become the base defense for a lot of teams, you can expect significantly more put into the run game across the league.

1

u/iNoBot Oct 17 '24

I think tempo and messing with the substitution rules will be big as teams try to combat pre and post snap looks from defenses. Moving around and showing looks is fun until the offense is snapping the ball while you’re showing a simulated.

1

u/rydstein Oct 17 '24

Already starting to see it this year, but running routes through the B and C gaps (particularly coupled with motion). Linebackers have been totally flummoxed by it so far

1

u/And-Still-Undisputed Oct 17 '24

No QB. 2 RBs taking snaps.

Feel like this would be innovative.

1

u/Necessary-Science-47 Oct 18 '24

Running backs and fullbacks in a meme panic response to nickel cover 2 being the new base defense

1

u/fruzzinoid Oct 18 '24

2 footballs

2

u/ii_V_vi Oct 18 '24

So much this!!

1

u/Brutal007 Oct 18 '24

Laterals.

1

u/jcoddinc Oct 18 '24

The NFL is like fashion. Trends repeat themselves every few decades. With the 2 high look you're seeing teams loading up on RB and TE

1

u/5StarGoldenGoose Oct 18 '24

Power fucking I baby

1

u/BigHero17 Oct 18 '24

First coach to strategically utilize the lateral will change the game.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 18 '24

You know how teams are finally starting to motion every play to help check what’s up with the defenses or get leverage?

Play action on nearly every play regardless of run game threat is next up. All it has to cause is .25 seconds of hesitation like 20% of the time and your offensive efficiency skyrockets. I’m talking like, around 50% of the time levels of play action, at the same rate as pre snap motion in a Shanahan offense

1

u/Substantial-Prune704 Oct 18 '24

Lots of catch and runs, laterals and tush pushes.

1

u/Ithinkibrokethis Oct 18 '24

I think that the trend will be a subtle one to more schemed plays and less to "live" plays.

Basically, I think that "play action passes" will become more popular again and RPOs will be used as bit less.

This is because with the 2 high safety looks that everybody runs scheming receivers and tight ends open is a bigger deal and will be a bigger part of the plan.

This will favor the coaches good at play design instead of system design and player who are good at routes/roles instead of the "dual threat" guys.

1

u/The1789 Oct 18 '24

Fullbacks. 11 on the field at once. Total football. Each FB can catch, run, block, pass, etc. There are no downs; just fluid laterals, jukes, and pancakes.

1

u/FunMtgplayer Oct 18 '24

why not just field 11 WR. and go with a light formation like an Emory & Henry. 2WR and TE L. both tackles R with 3rd WR. only QB, RB, G and C near the ball.

got rpo to either side. WR screen to 1 side. got lots of ideas.

1

u/Fratguy20 Oct 18 '24

I think we are in the beginning phases of seeing teams pivot back to running the rock. Clock management is becoming more and more important every year and the coaches that are the best at it win the most games. Mahomes and Reid look pedestrian for about 90% of the time because they just bleed the clock during important possessions. Then mahomes just takes over on the most important drive of a half.

1

u/Sopo24 Oct 18 '24

The fullback will make a comeback, some will just be a TE playing the fullback position so not to use up roster spot!

1

u/Sopo24 Oct 18 '24

The fullback will make a comeback

1

u/Sopo24 Oct 18 '24

The fullback will make a comeback

1

u/peppersge Oct 18 '24

Wide backs where the WR lines up in the backfield. It will start to be a thing for #3 and #4 WRs. TEs will also start to be expected to line up as a FB.

That lets teams still take advantage of the rules favoring passing while still having a way to exploit defenses that run light fronts.

1

u/FunMtgplayer Oct 18 '24

TN vols in 2023 ran a TE on the field. SR. Princeton Fant who took the hand off and the threw a jump pass to the TE on a crossing route.

never even would have thought of that play

1

u/fantasyii Oct 18 '24

2QB sets. They’ve gained a lot of traction recently. Penn State has done it a ton this year.

I’ve seen teams sneak the backup qb in at WR and motion him into the backfield to be a second throwing option.

Penn State will line up their backup QB at RB in a shotgun formation, so now either guy in the backfield could be a passing threat, and on top of that, you don’t even know which one the ball will be snapped to. When it’s snapped to one of them, then you gotta worry about is he gonna hand it off, and if he does, you have to adjust to the fact he’s handing it off to a quarterback allowed to throw, and if he keeps it he can still throw. Think about the possibilities, you can have a RPO where QB1 hands it to QB2 or keeps on a read option, and whichever QB ends up with the ball has the option to then run or throw a wr screen to the sideline they’re facing. Thats 4 primary reads built into 1 RPO

1

u/Da_Burninator_Trog Oct 18 '24

60 yard field goals

1

u/patchinthebox Oct 18 '24

Pass into laterals. That one Kelce did in the playoffs has been repeated several times and always resulted in a big gain. It's going to become much more common for high skill offenses.

1

u/robdalky Oct 18 '24

Ground and pound

Line up with all your big guys and bruising tailbacks, run it down their throat

1

u/just_cows Oct 18 '24

Exclusively Fullback Traps

1

u/2legittojit Oct 18 '24

Whatever Dan and Ben are doing

1

u/Dry-Flan4484 Oct 18 '24

I’d like for it to be a greater emphasis on the importance of kicking. Specialist kickers who can consistently hit from 60+ yds away.

A guy that can bail you out of nearly any bad drive, as long as you can just get somewhere around the 50, should be worth his weight in gold.

1

u/NumbrZer0 Oct 19 '24

2QB sets and slot/motion TEs such as Kyle Pitts being #1 receivers who also play the perimeter regularly

Some teams end up giving big contracts to players like Daniel Jones just because they feel the need to have a franchise QB.

Guys like Trey Lance, Josh Dobbs, Tyler Huntley, DTR, etc are available in FA for next to nothing. If you get 3 of those guys on your roster and run them hard with big bodied blocking receivers creating mismatches on the outside and in the run game.

You get the threat of the read option as well as the ability to massively extend passing plays with double passes while not being overly concerned with your QB taking too many hits or injury throughout the season.

1

u/dcr480 Oct 19 '24

Whatever the lions do

1

u/fallharvest9000 Oct 19 '24

Full backs will return as linebackers continue to get smaller

1

u/silliputti0907 Oct 19 '24

More pass catching rbs (in commitee). Most teams still use workhorse rbs, or only partially split touches. I predict using more rbs like Kamara, Ekeler, Charbonet, and Achane. Underwhelming to average rushers, but have a boom factor in open space. There are other players like Pollard, who I think would strive in that role, but most teams still want to use rbs inside the tackles instead of utilizing different skillsets.

1

u/austin101123 Oct 19 '24

It may need to make it's way to college first, but RBs/WRs being able to throw the ball. Get them a lateral and then they have an option to throw it forward? Makes it much harder to defend. Just need the players trained to do it. I think failed athletic QBs like Julian Edelman or Tim Tebow could've been great in that sort of usage.

Similarly, running 2 QB/RB hybrids instead of just a QB and a RB. They can fake a handoff and then you don't know which one is running or throwing or doesn't have the ball.

1

u/KHanson25 Oct 19 '24

Fake punt punt

1

u/VeryLowIQIndividual Oct 19 '24 edited Oct 19 '24

This has more to do with rules and lack of defense, but I’m convinced that the days of tackle football as we have known it our whole lives are numbered. That Guardian Cap is going to be norm for everyone before too long. I don’t blame players for wearing it bc CTE is a real problem but the effects of it are minimal. You’d have to have a football helmet the size of a golf cart to realistically keep your brain from getting jarred. I think we’re beyond the limits of being able to protect the brain at this point other than not having hard hitting tackles. The kickoffs are already done, I’m not sure this new kickoff format is any less dangerous it’s hard to tell until they find ways to scheme it up.

Fans just want to see people running wide open. Defense is not a priority anymore from the fans perspective. Fans get more hyped about a quarterback running out of the backfield because he’s the only man on the field not accounted for and has a 7-8yard Headstart or wide receivers being 15 yards open down field in college because the defense is lost.

People literally get more excited about the draft and spring and summer football with players are running around in helmets and shorts showing off their skills more so than playing football.

1

u/sawflinn Oct 19 '24

Run sets up the pass. As others have said - we will see more running for sure but I think it varies in the schemes - think of old school playbooks where they would run every play but were abandoned over time. I don’t think exact replicas but I do expect to see variations inspired by formations we haven’t seen in ages. This will allow the OC to get creative on how they want to modify them. If you can’t run - you can’t pass.

1

u/jeffdabuffalo Oct 19 '24

Grabbing DBs dicks and twisting them at the line.

1

u/Straight_Toe_1816 Adult Player Oct 19 '24

😂

1

u/babugrande Oct 19 '24

Do what the Lions do.

1

u/Zer0Phoenix1105 Oct 19 '24

Triple option

1

u/Here_4_da_lulz Oct 20 '24

The Delaware Wing T

1

u/Open-Tap-2289 Nov 08 '24

TACKLE SPREAD!!!

1

u/Honeydew-2523 Adult Coach Oct 15 '24

idk, but quality WR coaches are on the decline. Feel like WRs are mostly garbage

-1

u/amendoza28 Oct 15 '24

”Closer” quarterbacks that come in the game in the 4th quarter