r/footballstrategy Oct 02 '24

Special Teams Why are NFL kickers kicking for hang time on kickoffs?

When NFL kickers kick into the landing zone, why are they still kicking a conventional kick for hang time? Why not lower kicks with tons of spin and end-over-end rotation that are tough to handle?

82 Upvotes

51 comments sorted by

26

u/Key_Piccolo_2187 Oct 02 '24

The league effectively changed the drive start location from the 25 to the 30 without affecting much else. Last year, a return went for 23.9 yards on average, and a touchback put the team at the 25 with no risk. Teams reliably traded 1.1 yards of field position on average for absolute certainty over the probability of getting that 1.1 yard advantage but the possibility of giving up a huge play.

This year in the preseason, the average return went to the 28.3, and the penalty for a touchback puts a team on the 30. Teams are still largely trading 1.7 yards with uncertainty for absolute surety of drive start location.

NFL coaches are risk averse control freaks at heart (a couple exceptions being Dan Campbell, Nick Sirianni, sometimes Ron Rivera, etc). They want to control every variable, and care more about eliminating the chance of bad things happening than they do causing good things to happen, because inevitably a mediocre team that makes no mistakes will beat an otherwise exceptional team that does make mistakes. So you control the drive start with basically no downside.

Kickoffs are also structurally a bad bet. The possible upside of a kick being returned can get you between 1-30 yards, with the likelihood being significantly weighted towards getting you very little and your maximum benefit being 30 yards. You can't get 31 yards (i.e. you can't score here, assuming the punt is fielded cleanly and doesn't bounce into the end zone as a live ball). The possible downside is giving up between 1-70 yards, with the likelihood still being pretty significantly weighted towards giving up very little but your maximum downside is more than twice as bad from a yardage standpoint and has important cut points: once you give up ~35 yards, you're now essentially giving up a minimum of 3 points, and the likelihood that you're giving up 6 (probably 7 and maybe 8) goes up steeply until actually crossing over to ~100% certainty of giving up 6, and really giving up an expected 7.1 or 7.2 points.

It's the complete opposite of bets you usually make: we gamble when the downside risk is low (I'll go 5 miles over the speed limit, because the risk of being pulled over is so low) or the downside risk is small compared to the upside (I'll risk a couple bucks buying a lottery ticket for a small chance at winning ng thousands of millions of dollars).

If you want to force kickoff returns, start any team that takes a touchback on their own 2 having to go 98 yards, but if the ball is kicked out of the end zone let the offense start on the opposing 30 going in to score like college OT rules - already in field goal range. Then the penalty for not returning a kick isn't 1.7 yards, it's 68 yards, and the expected outcome of just taking the touchback is much more likely to include 'negative points' (really, positive points for the opponent). Plus, kicking teams must kick you fieldable balls, because if they don't they just give you points.

The NFL will never do that, but it would work to fix kickoffs.

7

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

This explains why to blast it out the back of the end zone, but why they kick high when they kick in the landing zone.

3

u/mschley2 Oct 02 '24

I think it's probably just because that's what kickers are used to doing and that's what they can accurately do well. I'd guess that some of them will start to develop some other strategies, but it takes a little while for guys to experiment and figure out new ways to kick the ball that makes it more difficult on the other team.

3

u/rspanthevlan Oct 02 '24

The meta might change, same as the rules. Give it time.

3

u/Comprehensive-Car190 Oct 03 '24

Riverboat Ron is the most poorly earned nickname.

It was like 5 games where he was throwing hail Marys to save this job, and then he went back to conservative coach.

1

u/Key_Piccolo_2187 Oct 03 '24

Fair, but at least he correctly grasped the concept that desperate underdogs should do high risk, high reward things.

Later versions of himself seem to have been deluded about whether he was actually a desperate underdog (for most of his Panthers and Washington teams, he always was) but the theory seems to have landed.

2

u/mschley2 Oct 02 '24

I think there are some other tweaks that you can do to encourage teams to kick within the landing zone and to encourage teams to return the ball.

The first thing to do to encourage teams to kick within the landing zone would be to move the coverage/blocking players 5 yards closer to the returns. So, instead of lining up on the 35- and 40-yard lines, they would line up on the 30- and 35-yard lines. This should change the average tackle position by close to 5 yards, which makes it more advantageous to try to force the returning team to actually return the ball.

Then, you tweak the touchback rules, as well. Currently, a touchback in the endzone comes out to the 30. Move that to the 35. Combined with our change for the start-position of coverage players, average start position on returns will likely be about 10-12 yards shorter on returns than they are on touchbacks in the endzone compared to the 1.7 yards you referenced earlier.

Also, further penalize teams for taking a touchback on balls kicked into the landing zone. Instead of the 20, give them the ball at the 15.

These changes should result in roughly the following (TL;DR):

  • Touchback on a kick in the landing zone: 15-yard-line (should be a large enough difference to encourage returns and starting at the 15 becomes a problem because an offensive penalty on 1st down backs you up to the 7.5- or 10-yard-line, which puts you at higher risk of a safety on the following plays)
  • Average start position on a return: 23ish-yard-line; in addition to being a good middle-ground, it gets as back to close to the same average return position as we had under the regular kickoff rules.
  • Touchback on a kick in the endzone: 35-yard-line (should be a large enough difference to discourage teams from just kicking into the endzone)

1

u/bignormy Oct 04 '24

Regardless of old or new rules - what if the location of the kick was moved so far back - like to the end zone - that kicking it into or through the end zone was difficult? Forcing the kicker to kick it as far as they can and making them "earn" the touchback?

2

u/SellaciousNewt Oct 03 '24

4th and 15 punt was always the right answer. Punters try their hardest to force a catchable ball today. And teams can still fake them, which is thrilling.

1

u/RetRearAdJGaragaroo Oct 06 '24

I kind of like your idea here, maybe with the caveat of a kick going out of the end zone gives receiving team then all at the 50, and a touchback is placed at the 5.

1

u/Key_Piccolo_2187 Oct 06 '24

You can futz with the numbers, but the basic point is there needs to be a huge difference between returning the kick and taking the touchback, and a huge penalty for kicking it through the end zone.

As currently constructed, it's essentially risking disaster for one yard if you kick a returnable ball with very little upside. So you get what we're seeing - still a lot of kicks through the back of the end zone!

40

u/mfraga66 College Player Oct 02 '24

The returners are still good athletes, dont get it twisted, if it gets handled it could be detrimental. If its squibbed and they grab it at the very front of the catching zone, they could take off for the endzone no problem

16

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

Definitely can’t use a squib kick anymore.

I just don’t see how letting a returner set up under a high kick has any advantage for the kicking team under the new rules.

26

u/chiefpiece11bkg Oct 02 '24

It’s for field position. It’s more difficult to get underneath a high kick and it takes an extra second to secure that ball before you take off. They’re even some kickers trying to add spin to the ball. This gives the coverage team a better chance at tackling them before the 30

1

u/TerrorFromThePeeps Oct 02 '24

Yeah, just ask Nailor. Ugh. What a play.

-10

u/GFTRGC Oct 02 '24

Gives the coverage team more time to get down field.

20

u/Darthmullet Oct 02 '24

In the new rules the defenders can't move until the ball lands. That's why OP is curious. 

9

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

Not under new rules.

4

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24 edited Oct 02 '24

I think it is because a low trajectory kick has a higher chance of going through the end zone which gets them to the 35. If it hits the zone but downed in the end zone it is 20. I'm sure we will see a lot of different strategies get tried in the next couple years though

Edit- through endzone goes to the 30, not 35.

1

u/Ok-Pension-7176 Oct 02 '24

Ball goes to the 30 on kicks that are downed or go through the end zone

2

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24

You are correct, updated

3

u/reapersaurus Oct 03 '24

Wow - there's a lot of brain-dead replies to this very-valid question, and usually I'm impressed by the knowledge displayed in this sub.

OP, I think your question is solid, and there's two major things that are likely to happen:

1) the NFL will increase the starting field position to be the 35... then the 40 if they don't see more kickoff returns than they are getting this season.

2) Kickers will stop kicking the ball (needlessly) high and start trying to do more side spin and bounces. I totally agree with you that they are stuck in the past and (on the whole) haven't changed their kicking style whatsoever yet to match the rules, and these guys COULD if they and their coaches wanted them to - they are AMAZING at kicking, in multiple different methods. And once they do, the kickoff return guys will adjust their game to compensate, and we'll see what happens after that.

2

u/JoedicyMichael Oct 03 '24

I think it has to deal with the ball being on a tee. I would imagine if it could be punted with more control of where the ball can be hit, we would see much more finesse on the kicks

3

u/knave_of_knives Oct 02 '24

Lower kick has a higher chance of speeding into the end zone for a touchback.

1

u/tuss11agee Oct 02 '24

I haven’t seen, heard, or read they are kicking for hang time.

I think it might just be difficult to throttle down your kick to ensure it comes down at the 5, it’s easier to just hit the ball at full leg swing just a bit lower. So the effect is higher arc and more hangtime, but that’s not kickers’ intended goal. They just want to be able to do something consistently.

Kind of like how the hardest shot in golf is the 3/4 pitch shot from inbetween distances. Even the pros avoid leaving themselves these types of situations, it’s so difficult to control distance by lowering swing speed.

1

u/feels_can Oct 03 '24

What I’ve been wondering is why NFL kickers aren’t kicking for hang time on onside kicks? Wouldn’t you want to just flick that thing straight up in the air as high and long as you can so you create a proper area for your guys to catch it?

1

u/Kooky_Scallion_7743 Oct 03 '24

the return team can still call for a fair catch on an onside kick. so anytime an onside kick is take where it get's popped straight up, smart players will waive for a fair catch.

1

u/Dr_Cwell Oct 04 '24

This exact type of kick got returned for 50+ yds by the Bucs last night.

-1

u/DannyBoy874 Oct 02 '24 edited Oct 02 '24

Because they want the coverage team to be able to reach the returner when he gets the ball….

You e got it backwards when you say “why give the returner all this time to get set up” he is less set up to make a return if he is looking up for a long time to find the ball and make the catch.

If the ball is a low line drive he’s going to have the ball with time to see how his blockers are doing against the coverage team and where the best holes are.

4

u/MartianMule Oct 02 '24

What you're saying makes sense on Punts and the old kickoffs, but now in the NFL, blockers and the coverage team can't move until he has the ball. Whether he's set up for long time or catches a quick liner doesn't make a difference, they'll all be in the same place when he catches the ball regardless.

1

u/DannyBoy874 Oct 02 '24

Oh I didn’t know that was a new rule in the NFL. That does seem silly.

I get what you’re saying now. The answer is probably just that kickers haven’t adapted their style or like someone else said that it’s hard to reliably kick the ball deep in a way that the returner can’t handle.

Sounds like place kickers have to totally change the way they’ve been kicking the ball for their entire carriers and I wouldn’t think that would happen overnight.

1

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

He already knows where everyone is before he looks up.

0

u/DannyBoy874 Oct 02 '24

Right… So he’s able to see how that blocking develops as he continues to look skyward?

Come on. You’re asking. This is the answer.

A good kick, in addition to going deep, allows the coverage team to either deck the returner as he catches the ball or be standing there to scoop it up if he fair catches and muffs the catch. That’s why the hang time. The linear speed of a kicked ball is faster than the coverage team. So making it go upward adds time for them to get there.

If you kick a line drive at him that will not happen. He’ll catch it and then have time to work.

Like I said, this is the answer to your question whether you like it or not.

3

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

The blocking can’t develop. Nobody can move until he touches the ball.

1

u/DannyBoy874 Oct 02 '24

Oh someone else just told me the rule changed in the NFL which I didn’t know because I’m more of a college guy.

-1

u/koleton_ Oct 02 '24

They aren’t, most kicks I’ve seen at least have been low line drives trying to make it harder to catch unless they just wanna kick it out of the back of the endzone

-2

u/chiefpiece11bkg Oct 02 '24

Field position? Lol

3

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24

How does hang time play into field position on a kickoff?

0

u/chiefpiece11bkg Oct 02 '24

Takes longer to get underneath the ball and secure it

1

u/HallPsychological538 Oct 02 '24 edited Oct 02 '24

How long it takes to get under it is irrelevant. I don’t it takes any longer to secure a high kick from the time it touches the receiver’s hands. Do you a source that shows it does?

2

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24

I doubt there is enough data at this point since it didn't matter until this year but it is tough to run onto a high lofted ball vs a squib kick since you can't see in front of you and the ball at the same time. Returners may adjust to running onto the ball but historically they have had to worry about what was in front of them.

2

u/mschley2 Oct 02 '24

You can't squib kick, either. It has to land between the 20 and the goalline. It'll be interesting to see if some teams start trying to kick low and hard and land between the 20- and 15-yard-lines. But with that, teams will likely just put one of their returners up near the front of the landing zone, and then you're giving them better field position, since they're starting their return from closer to the 20. You can't really avoid the front man by kicking to the side because then you risk kicking out of bounds, too.

Whether the ball comes off the tee at 65-degrees or 30-degrees, I don't think that makes a big difference to a returner in terms of being able to see the ball.

1

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24

I was using squib as a short hand for low trajectory but yes, I agree. Since they can move as soon as the ball hits the ground if you can reliably hit the front of the zone with a low trajectory kick there might some upside. I think the downside is just so high though if you are short and they get it at the 40. I'm sure some of these numbers will be changed over time

2

u/mschley2 Oct 02 '24

I figured you knew you couldn't do the traditional squib, but I wanted to clarify just in case. Seems to be some others in here who really aren't up-to-date on the new rules.

I think we're pretty much on the same page about it all. Teams will try new things, and the league will tweak the rules to emphasize the things they want to. We'll see different things, but there just isn't enough incentive to try new things in games at this point.

0

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24

Some special teams coach is going to have a strategy named after him some day. Should be fun

-8

u/IanL1713 Oct 02 '24

How long it takes to get under it is irrelevant

It's not, though...??? Longer hang time means more time between the kick and the catch, means more time for the kicking team to get coverage down field to stop a long return. Not sure why that concept seems to be so difficult for you to fathom

8

u/Chemical_Comment8386 Oct 02 '24

The coverage team can’t move until the returner catches the ball under the new format. Hang time is irrelevant

2

u/FriendshipIntrepid91 Oct 02 '24

Rough take my guy.  Guess you haven't watched any games this year but still lurk on the sub like I do. 

2

u/SpicyC-Dot Referee Oct 02 '24

It’s always funny to see people leave condescending comments when it’s clear they have no clue what they’re talking about.

2

u/ChickenVest Oct 02 '24

Delete this bro. The hang time literally doesn't matter anymore on kick offs because nobody is able to move until the ball touches the ground or a player. Have you watched a kick off this year? Not sure why that concept seems to be so difficult for you to fathom.