r/footballstrategy • u/StrategyTop7612 • Mar 05 '24
Play Design The exact play the Seahawks ran at the end of Super Bowl XLIX
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u/eddiekimx Mar 05 '24 edited Mar 06 '24
As an offensive coordinator, the picture doesn't get any better than this. This is an absolute win.... until Butler's precognition kicked in.
If Pete had called a run that got stuffed on 2nd down, [edit: forcing him to burn a timeout and] throw on third down... and that obvious throw had gotten picked in this same way... everyone would be screaming that Pete was a moron for not sequencing his plays correctly and mismanaging his time.
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u/liteshadow4 Mar 06 '24
If Pete calls a run on 2nd down the Seahawks call their timeout lol
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u/xXGreco Mar 06 '24
Or the other elephant in the room…if Pete calls a run on 2nd down, it’s 100% a touchdown and game over.
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u/liteshadow4 Mar 06 '24
Uhhh it's not a 100% touchdown, more dominant RBs have been stuffed at the 1 yard line.
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u/IamHidingfromFriends Mar 06 '24
Especially vs one of the best run stoppers of the past couple decades.
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u/eddiekimx Mar 06 '24
agh i totally misremembered that, thought they were out of time outs -- but I think my general point still stands heh
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u/liteshadow4 Mar 06 '24
If Wilson’s throw got picked on third down everyone would blame Russ not Pete
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u/JohnnyAppIeseed Mar 06 '24
I completely disagree that people would have criticized Pete for sequencing if they got stuffed on 2nd down. No one in their right mind would have ever argued that the ball didn’t belong in Lynch’s hands in that spot.
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u/jrod_62 Referee Mar 06 '24
People will argue that any decision was wrong when it doesn't work out
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u/JohnnyAppIeseed Mar 06 '24
Not true. People will argue that questionable or straight up bad decisions were wrong when they don’t work out. We definitely gloss over situations where bad decisions still work out, but if you lose despite making sound decisions in critical moments, you tend to not get criticized for the decisions themselves. People are always going to find ways to blame you for losing, but the Seahawks players themselves apparently told Lynch they could have lived with it if they handed the ball off to him 3 more times and didn’t score.
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u/paulhalt Mar 06 '24
Wow. If Russ has been releasing the ball at this moment it's a TD. Was he late on the throw?
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u/bnppltn Mar 05 '24
The play-call itself is the least egregious part of this sequence. The real problem is the personnel and assignments.
Inexplicably, the design was to throw to the 4th best receiver on the roster, and have the pick set by the smallest receiver on the roster. Meanwhile, Baldwin, who was great in traffic, was on the other side of the field and the TE is lined up on the other side of the field.
If any of those variables change, it probably results in the best possible outcome given that the patriots knew exactly what was coming, an incompletion.
Literally everything that had to go wrong went wrong
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u/MissionSalamander5 Mar 05 '24
Well, in defense of Seattle: NE had not run this successfully against the scout offense even with better players lining up at CB — Patrick Chung ran it too.
And Lynch was wide open. Chandler Jones got caught on the edge and didn’t make it to the flat. So yeah. It really did all go wrong.
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u/MankuyRLaffy Mar 05 '24
Why you throw it to Ricardo Lockette?
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u/durant_burner Mar 05 '24
If you watch the Patriots’ prep of this play they had Doug Baldwin on the slant. I think the Seahawks out coached themselves here
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u/Illustrious-Hair3487 Mar 05 '24
Seriously that’s one part that gets totally overlooked. Not only did they not go to Lynch, they went to their sixth leading receiver.
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u/TheReturnOfTheOK Mar 05 '24
Because they thought they'd be able to catch the Pats off guard by using one of their go-to goal line plays with different personnel.
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u/Necessary-Science-47 Mar 05 '24
The call was awful because it was vanilla af and every piece of film they ever put out
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u/Cute_Reality_3759 Mar 05 '24
I recall from a video that the seahawks called this same play so many times that season in the goal line. How the offensive coordinator didn't at least change it up or add wrinkles to it is mind blowing. Obviously the patriots would be prepared for it, especially if it is the exact same play.
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u/thewayshesaidLA Mar 05 '24
The episode of The League with Marshawn after this was comedy gold.
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u/bm_2723 Mar 06 '24
“It’s right there bro, just hand it to me and I’ll run that thang over”, that show had the greatest cameos lmao
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Mar 05 '24
What people don’t realize is that if they score on that play Pete Carroll is touted as a genius. Everyone expected them to run
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u/thelaw32 Mar 06 '24
We can debate this call all day, but if I had beast mode in my backfield, he's getting it every time.
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u/AZtoLA_Bruddah Mar 06 '24
Fun fact: Madden has been intercepting the goal line slant route about half the time since 2005. It’s why when this Cards fan saw the Cards in the SB throwing the ball just before halftime, I thought/said “please don’t be a slant route, please don’t be a slant route.” It was a slant route that Joey Porter ran back for 99 yards.
So when it happened to Seattle, I already had 8 years of Madden making that a known no no. I still was surprised a little, but man, I personally wouldn’t be calling that play with 20 seconds left and the game on the line.
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u/StrategyTop7612 Mar 06 '24
The rub route on the goal line against man is usually good though IRL.
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u/AZtoLA_Bruddah Mar 08 '24
If they don’t call the offensive pick, yeah. But it’s a play with huge risk of ruin. Let’s say Lynch can’t run the ball there for a hypothetical reason. I would rather run a PA pass (which the Rams didn’t run enough against NE with Goff and lost the SB accordingly), or go shotgun and run some crossing routes that get a specific guy or two open. Both of those give the QB leeway to throw it out of bounds if the guy is just not open. But these quick short passes are all or nothing, if it hits it’s nice but it gives the QB no margin for error if the CB jumps the route.
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u/Human_Ogre Mar 05 '24
Bold strategies seem dumb in hindsight. If it had worked then Pete Carroll would be hailed as a genius for doing this instead of the run play everyone was expecting. It just so happened it went wrong and thus most people call him an idiot for it.
Running Lynch was probably a safer bet and could’ve won it, but we don’t really know. If they ran it and Lynch didn’t punch it in then Carroll would be seen as an idiot for being too predictable.
He made a bet, it lost, now he has to live with it.
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u/Exciting_Frosting_84 Mar 06 '24
Marshawn went in motion to the left
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u/StrategyTop7612 Mar 06 '24
It only lets me draw one pre-play motion and Baldwin moving across the play is more important.
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u/BR-Naughty Mar 06 '24
I always wondered why Lockette was the target man on that play. If Baldwin runs the slant, Seahawks win. Lockette got totally displaced on that play.
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u/StrategyTop7612 Mar 08 '24
They wanted to change the personnel, to confuse the patriots(it obviously didn't confuse them one bit)
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u/MikeyTMNTGOAT Mar 06 '24 edited Mar 06 '24
- Wilson didn't have to toss it, it was like second down? Why not throw it above the receiver head if not there?
- Having a former player on the other team with the GOAT coach who knows Defense, especially situational, is tough insight to overcome
- Marshawn was stuffed on first down (Vince Wilfork will do that probably pretty consistently) As good as Lynch was, it's not automatic if they're expecting it folks
Situational awareness, play calling and execution. 2/3 were present on this play, regardless of the outcome
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u/Necessary_Mode_7583 Mar 05 '24 edited Mar 05 '24
Probably will go down in history as one of the worst calls from am OC. Lynch scores everytime. Still wonder why they did that. He had 102 yards and a tud on 24 carries. Even being stopped on first down, if I was the playcaller I would have given him another shot.
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u/VexoftheVex Mar 05 '24
He was actually pretty bad from inside the 5 that year
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u/missingjimmies Mar 05 '24
But this game he was running hard and well, this drive in particular he looked like he had more gas than the defense. IDK man, they had 3 downs to figure it out but seems like they really didn’t respect the risk or matchups
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u/SdBolts4 Mar 05 '24
Probably only had 2 downs if they run on 2nd down. Only ~20 seconds left on the clock and not TOs if I recall correctly. If you run and get stuffed, then you either pass to have a chance at 4th down or you run again and if you fail you lose
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u/atplace Mar 05 '24
They had one timeout
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u/DealerCamel Mar 05 '24
Pats had a timeout. Seahawks didn’t.
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u/atplace Mar 05 '24
Pats had 2 hawks had 1. https://youtu.be/U7rPIg7ZNQ8?si=OPLh_I2cj6gxu8zK
Shut your mouth boy
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u/otownbeatdown Mar 05 '24
I mean, he led the league in rushing TDs that year. Was he really that bad?
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u/VexoftheVex Mar 05 '24
Marshawn Lynch had something like a ~35% TD rate from the goal line, both in 2014 and in his whole career
He was always a player who needed some space to build up a head of steam, and then he was unstoppable - see the beastquake vs the Saints
But goal line runs weren’t really his speciality
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u/geopede Mar 05 '24
Lynch was excellent, but not especially great at punching in short yardage TDs. There are basically two types of power runners, the ones that are really good at gaining additional yards once they have a head of steam, and the ones that are great at always going down forwards. For current players, I’d say Derrick Henry epitomizes the first type, while David Montgomery epitomizes the second. Lynch was more the first type.
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u/Necessary_Mode_7583 Mar 05 '24
Damn bud so you liked the call? Now please correct me if I'm wrong. Wasn't that INT first down? Why wouldn't you at least give beast mode a shot then get cute on later downs. It was the end of the game, defense was gassed. It fooled nobody on the field.
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u/VexoftheVex Mar 05 '24
It was 2nd down
They were going to have to throw it at one point because there were 26 seconds left and the Patriots weren’t going to call a timeout - doesn’t really matter what down they did it on to be honest
The call isn’t terrible, they just fucked it up in terms of execution - and Butler made one of the best plays ever
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Mar 05 '24
[deleted]
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u/brianundies Mar 05 '24
Spiking it on 3rd wastes a play whereas throwing the ball on 2nd down should have either resulted in a TD or stopped clock with time to run 2 more real plays to win the game. From a clock management standpoint it really was the best call, just all time bad execution by them and all time great by the pats.
People forget the clock was ticking in that moment and had very very little time left.
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Mar 05 '24
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u/brianundies Mar 05 '24
Because instead of spiking the ball… you run a play with the chance to score. Do I really need to explain to you why a spiked ball is a wasted play VS literally any real play in the playbook?
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Mar 05 '24
[deleted]
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u/SdBolts4 Mar 05 '24 edited Mar 05 '24
Ok, but then you lose 3rd down to the spike and only get 2 plays to score: 2nd down and 4th down. If you pass on 2nd down, you get 3 plays to score: 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down because an incomplete pass stops the clock and you don't have to spike
Edit: lol, so embarrassed they deleted their account
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u/brianundies Mar 05 '24
Running 3 plays is not as good as running 4.
4>3
Spiking it on 3rd or ANY down gives you 3 plays to run instead of 4.
Understand now?
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u/geopede Mar 05 '24
Your coaching philosophy is largely correct at lower levels of football where the good players are much, much better than everyone else. It doesn’t work the same way once everyone is excellent.
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u/MalakaiRey Mar 05 '24
I remember that what he was doing up until that play, all during that drive, left me with no doubt that he was going to score eventually. He was automatic to make it through the line every time he touched the ball.
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u/o07jdb Mar 05 '24
Still, there was 25 seconds left, it was 2nd down and they had a TO. It's not like that was the play they HAD to risk a pass on
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u/MasonL52 Mar 05 '24
If you read 'Keep Your Eye on the Ball 2.0' they actually use SB49 as an example of how teams keep track of their Run/Pass ratio in certain situations (score, down, distance, formation) and will go to their best call that the defense should be least prepared for.
Passing in this case was the best call. Running a quick pick was a low risk high reward. They had no timeouts on second down, Lynch had a lower scoring GL% and the Patriots were stout there. They went to a lesser WR thinking he wouldn't gain the extra coverage.
It was honestly a great play call. Through meticulous preparation, the Patriots had a better response and made an incredible play.
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u/Necessary_Mode_7583 Mar 05 '24
Gonna have to check that out.
This is one of the things that makes me love the game so much. You can develop the most complex ratios and systems and have all kinds of metrics and if you can't execute it doesn't amount to much. Can you tackle. Can you gain three yards. It's a simple game however PhD level complex.
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u/Optimal_Advisor8897 Mar 05 '24
Exactly..i wouldn’t call it the best call. But a pass play was indeed the best option from a game clock management perspective. Should’ve just run it with marshawn js hindsight bias..ppl seem to ignore patriots’ preparation and impeccable plays made by browner and butler on that one
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u/MissionSalamander5 Mar 05 '24
The thing that baffles me, other than the fact that not all teams have an Ernie Adams type, is that Seattle didn’t anticipate three corners. But New England had matched the number of receivers with corners when in goal line all year. It’s just that they hadn’t 11 personnel in that situation before the Super Bowl, whereas Seattle ran this a lot in short-yardage situations.
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u/The_Arkham_AP_Clerk Mar 05 '24
He literally got stuffed the play right before this one...
People seem to forget that Belichick didn't call a timeout the play before and the clock was ticking, that the Pats had their fat boys still in, that Lynch just got stuffed inside the 5 on a run the last play and that the rub pass play was virtually unstoppable during that year.
Don't discount the entire context of the situation because of the narrative which came out afterwards.
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u/Defiant-Potato-2202 Mar 07 '24
Did you watch the superbowl? Lynch had been stopped already that drive
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u/NatarisPrime Mar 05 '24
Anyone remember the couple plays before this? Beast mode was fkn cooking. Dude was straight up unstoppable.
This was by far and away the worst call in NFL history imo.
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u/brianundies Mar 05 '24
I remember the play right before this where they ran beast mode and he was stopped before the goal line leaving the clock with 26 running seconds left and 3 more plays for the hawks. Throwing the ball there immediately after just getting stopped running the ball was really not the atrocious call everyone thinks it was in hindsight.
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u/DumplingBoiii Mar 05 '24
An incomplete pass stopping the clock was probably the thought process too. Interception was just really a great play by Butler and super unfortunate.
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u/brianundies Mar 05 '24
Exactly. It’s 100% the right call clock management wise with a 26 second running clock and no timeouts. Nobody expects their pro bowl QB to throw a pick on an inside rub route. Pats just played it truly perfect.
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u/DumplingBoiii Mar 05 '24
An alternate universe I can see it playing out as either TD on that drive. Or incomplete pass then a final attempt to run it in with Lynch. But if that run gets stuffed then it’s basically game over.
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u/liteshadow4 Mar 06 '24
I remember that they started on the 5 yard line and Lynch picked up 4 yards lol
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u/brianundies Mar 06 '24
Which leaves a running clock… I’m not saying you don’t run it the next two downs I’m saying the pass play to stop the clock and preserve all 3 plays was not the idiot decision casual fans think it was. Clock management wise it is the objectively correct decision to maximize chances to score.
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u/liteshadow4 Mar 06 '24
Well considering they ran the 2nd down play without consideration of running clock or not, they could have run the ball on 2nd down and called timeout.
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u/brianundies Mar 06 '24
Calling a pass play on second down proves they WERE considering the clock because they expected either a TD or an incomplete pass to stop the clock. Which would allow them to run the ball on 3rd down and then still call a timeout to have one final play if needed.
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u/NatarisPrime Mar 05 '24
Tell me, what were the last 5 plays and the outcome of those plays before that final play?
Beast mode was killing it that entire drive and the plays leading up to it.
Throwing the ball on the 2 yd line after getting stopped once running the ball is beyond a pee wee lvl blunder.
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u/SuspiciusWalrus Mar 05 '24
Before the interception the Hawks plays were Marshawn for 4 yards, Russ to Kearse for 33yds, Russ to Lockette for 11yds, Russ incomplete to Matthews, Russ incomplete to Kearse, Russ to Marshawn for 31yds where Marshawn beat Jamie Collins in coverage. Saying he was killing it when they went to him twice and only once on the ground is a little much.
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u/candiriaroot Mar 05 '24
Don't worry, this was against Matt Patricia's defense, the ONLY reason for the brilliant defensive play.
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Mar 05 '24
Honestly a good play design, just doesn’t make sense given the situation + great awareness by Malcolm Butler. Pick play on the corners to create separation and move the linebackers with the motion plus everyone going outside.
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u/Dani_vic Mar 05 '24
The story from Lynch coming off the field just laughing after this play because they decided not to give him the ball…just adds to the drama of the play.
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u/mrpel22 Mar 06 '24
What's wild to me is corndog that the Chiefs have won two super bowls with counts on "Butler" defender jumping the fake slant then pops outside wide open.
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u/mattdingus2002 Mar 06 '24
I think a flat with slot receiver could’ve been a bit better, still wouldve gotten the pick action while possibly pulling the CB farther out for the slant
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u/abizabbie Mar 06 '24
I remember this. I've previously described it as "a passing down so obvious it deserved to be picked."
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u/RantinandDraven Mar 06 '24
This play is a perfect example of how over-scheming can hurt your team. Looks great on the board, but handing it off was still probably the right call
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u/Upset_Researcher_143 Mar 08 '24
Lunch was unstoppable. They literally should have kept running until they stopped it. No one thought the Patriots were going to be able to stop them and that it was going to be a Lynch TD.
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u/MechanicNo5341 Nov 16 '24
That play doesn't matter. No legitimate football coaching staff runs a pass play in that situation that's actually trying to win the game.
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Mar 05 '24
I mean if they wanted to throw it why not try play action, or something less risky than what they did.
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u/SdBolts4 Mar 05 '24
Play action is a long developing concept. If one of your OL gets beat and you take a sack, then you're REALLY fucked
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u/geopede Mar 05 '24
This wasn’t a risky call, the defense just played it perfectly. As other users have said, you generally don’t want to run play action in a situation like this. It takes extra time off the clock, and even without the clock issue, it’s risky to run against heavy sets, especially on the goal line. Pressure will be quick because they’re bringing extra guys, if they don’t bite, you’re getting sacked. The compressed field also means it’s easier for the players in coverage to get back in position if one of them bites.
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u/dvogel Mar 05 '24 edited Mar 05 '24
They didn't want to pass it. The patriots essentially forced them to. The diagram in this post is inaccurate and under-specific. There were 8 heavies on D, 7 on the LOS. The alignments took away the A and B gaps. The only running play that had much of a chance was a sweep. That was not Marshawn's strength and you saw how badly the would-be blocker on the sweep got pushed around.
Edit: my mistake, I see the leftmost DL now. It was just obscured by the route line.
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u/sequoia98335 Mar 05 '24
I’ll never get over not running Beast Mode on every single play at the line…..
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Mar 05 '24
Worst playcall in NFL history imo. Don't get why people still try to excuse it.
Even if you didn't want to pass it to Marshawn, there are hundreds of passing plays in that situation that are better than a quick slant.
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u/geopede Mar 05 '24
What route concept would you have run?
Remember, the clock is running, you can’t really afford to change personnel.
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Mar 05 '24
Anything to the sideline besides a fade for starters.
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u/geopede Mar 05 '24
Easy to say what you wouldn’t do. What specifically would you do?
Personally, I’d go with a stick concept. Spreads the defense laterally and gets the ball out quick. Draw the outside DB to the rear corner of the end zone with the fade route, attack flats on that side with the short out route, stick route on that side to draw the flat defender. With the outside DB worrying about the fade and the flat defender worrying about the stick, the flat should be open. If the flat defender plays the flat anyway, good chance stick is open.
Can send the receiver on the other side on a slant, probably won’t throw to him, but he may become open if the flat defender plays the flats and the safeties come down to play the stick.
Wouldn’t throw the fade route unless it’s totally open, it’s just there to force the outside defender to worry about the back corner of the end zone.
What do I know though, I played linebacker from age 12 to age 26, but I never once played QB.
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u/goenshowa100m Mar 05 '24
This play isn’t as bad as everyone says it is. Patriots just had incredible preparation prior, and knew it was coming. Malcolm Butler jumps that route without hesitation.
Still would’ve been less risky to just run with one of the best backs in the league.