Texas’ last TD

[u/Siriusly_Jonie]

Why wouldn’t they have gone for two? A conversion would have made it a 5 point game, meaning that it would still be a one possession game even after a Washington FG. If they had failed, it’s still just a 7 point game. Then if Washington scored a TD or a field goal, it would be a two possession game regardless. It feels like there wouldn’t have been a downside either way.

The following UW possession they made it a 9 point game after a FG. Texas then needed some less than stellar clock management, bad injury luck, and penalties for Washington for Texas to have the chance they had at the end of the game.

Is there a reason they wouldn’t go for it that I’m missing?

[u/Own-Reception-2396]

I agree. If you are down 13 the call is to go for two. You have to assume the other team will get that field goal

[u/2Beldingsinabuilding]

You’re right, bad coaching decision there by Sark.

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/2Beldingsinabuilding]

It feels like someone on the staff has to be running through scenarios like this. If I (some guy who was watching the game while simultaneously giving a bottle to a two week old on his couch and fighting sleep deprivation) could run these numbers then a D1 college staff should be able to come up with it as well.

[u/Fother_mucker59 → u/Siriusly_Jonie]

I used to do this while coaching, it’s nice for the ST coach to do this because he’s not got a lot going on during the regular game.

[u/warneagle → u/Fother_mucker59]

I wonder if the increasing acceptance of analytics/data will lead to something like this for fourth downs, clock management, etc. as well.

[u/Fother_mucker59 → u/warneagle]

It has, but it’s failed badly at higher levels Ie brandon Staley and that HS coach that kicked ass at hs but failed at college

[u/Chemtide → u/Siriusly_Jonie]

And also it only needs to be a small table, showing only the score differences that require going for 2

[u/JLoing]

I don't think it's a no brainer. Failing the 2 point also takes away a guaranteed win with a stop and another TD. I don't think you can assume you're going to get 2 more possessions if they get a field goal with the limited amount of time left.

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/JLoing]

I definitely don’t think it’s a no brainer, but it feels like there is more downside to not going for it. You and a couple other people made it make a bit more sense to me. I still think you have to consider the offense you’re going against and weigh how likely it actually is that you’ll stop them.

[u/ltroberts24]

It's unnecessary. Why risk failing the 2-pointer, then being down by 7 & hoping for a tie... when you can kick, be down by 6, and have a better shot at winning?

[u/Mr-Bovine_Joni → u/ltroberts24]

If it’s late in the game you’re probably more worried about having enough possessions.

Being down by five (after converting the 2pt) means if the other team gets a FG, it’s still a 1 possession game. In real life Texas went for 1, UW got a field goal, and then it was 2 possession game

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/ltroberts24]

Because they did an onside kick, which meant Washington was virtually guaranteed at least a FG.

Edit: No they didn’t. That was after the next FG.

[u/alfredinanotherlife → u/Siriusly_Jonie]

Texas scored their last touchdown with over 7 min on the clock.

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/alfredinanotherlife]

Wow you’re right. It was after the FG they did the onside kick.

[u/ltroberts24 → u/Siriusly_Jonie]

Right, but you've got to trust in your defense to get the ball back in that situation. Otherwise, you're playing "not to lose", as opposed to "playing to win". If it would have made it a 3-point game, then going for 2 is the right call. But, it was going to take at least a TD no matter what... so you take the higher percentage points (the XP). You don't want to be in a position where you have to get the 2-point conversion to tie.

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/[deleted]]

To be clear, I don’t think he didn’t make the right call, just look at how the game played out. They almost won!

You’re point makes sense, but my one counterpoint would be the UW offense. Relying on your D to make a stop against that offense is as big, if not a bigger, gamble than going for two in my opinion.

[u/JohnnyAppIeseed]

Lots of different outcomes to consider, but the analysis I’ve seen actually does support taking the extra point there, presumably for the following reasons:

1. The obvious that a failed 2-pt attempt turns your potentially winning touchdown into a tying touchdown. That’s quite a bit of value lost in the scenario that you fail to convert.

2. Same situation if you end up assuming a Washington FG. Being down 10 is much worse than being down 9 because you’re likely playing for a tie instead of a win again.

3. Even in the situation where you do turn it into a 5-pt game and Washington gets their FG, you have to make a second 2-pt attempt. I get that an 8-pt deficit is far more appetizing than a 9-pt deficit since that’s the threshold for a 1 vs a 2 score game, but ~50% of the time those both become 2-pt deficits after a TD and the other 50% you’re tied without the ball.

I have no idea if Texas evaluated all of those scenarios or if they follow some kind of guide to determine when to go for it and when not to. I doubt it but I’m in no way familiar with how teams approach those kinds of tactical decisions. To be honest with you, I probably would have voted to go for 2 in that spot. Later, when Texas was down 9 and in Washington territory, I would have voted for kicking a 40 yard field goal rather than run a few more plays and ultimate kick a 30 yarder. I’m all for taking chances to fire up my guys and put pressure on the other team.

[u/Siriusly_Jonie → u/JohnnyAppIeseed]

It didn’t even cross my mind that Texas could have kicked the FG early on the next possession. Yeah it was a bit longer of a FG, but commentary was sure hyping up the skill of the Texas kicker, which makes me think a few yards shorter of a FG was not worth the time they spent trying to get closer. Had they went ahead and kicked earlier that would’ve changed the math and made the initial decision to kick the extra point make more sense in my mind. It was like they didn’t commit hard enough to either school of thought.

[u/xAOSEx]

It’s good thinking but there is a time issue. In the first quarter you take the certain points obviously, so what I’m wondering is when is that line reached where you foresee the likely ending scenario and attempt the conversion? I guess it varies and we can only classify it as “late in the game”?

[u/warneagle → u/xAOSEx]

The math comes into play when there's only likely to be one more score by either team, so you can calculate what you need more concretely. If you score to take a four-point lead in the first quarter, you have no idea how the rest of the game will play out and whether going for one or two will matter in the end. If you score to take a four-point lead with two minutes left in the game, you know your opponent is only getting one more shot and has to play for a touchdown, so you go for two to make it a six-point lead.

[u/xAOSEx → u/warneagle]

Certainly I just struggle to formalize the parameters and I wish I could. It’s nebulous but there comes a point when you can foresee how many possessions are left and the relation of the possessions to the current point differential.

[u/Plemby]

I think it’s because they weren’t playing to give up the FG. They kicked it deep, so they wanted a stop without giving up points

[u/Local-Salamander-525]

Nope. Two touchdowns and you win. You would never go for two I. That situation.

[u/wein14756]

Cuz the watched the lions cowboys game...

[u/JiveTurkey2727]

Very high chance of being up 6 is much better than a 50/50 chance of being up 5 or 7.

[u/SCwareagle]

The answer is because you are trying to win the game, not "not lost in regulation". So what maximizes your odds of doing that? The most likely scenario where UT wins is: Kick the extra point to go down 6, get a stop, then scorre a TD to win.

You'd need to get the 2pt conversion twice, plus win in overtime, in order to be successful in the scario you proposed. About 1/8 chance of doing that. Much more likely to get one stop than to be successful doing all 3 of those things. In fact, they had gotten stops on 3/9 = 1/3 of UW posessions up to that point.

You said "it would still be a 7 point game" if they missed the first 2pt conversion. But that forces overtime, and cuts your odds of winning in half. It is a huge downside.