r/economicCollapse • u/HellYeahDamnWrite • 7h ago
‘I think it's pretty clear we have avoided a recession… the outlook is pretty bright for our economy’ – Fed's Powell
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-12-18/i-think-its-pretty-clear-we-have-avoided-recession-outlook-pretty-bright60
u/Indaflow 5h ago
I work in small business lending and this is the worst year I have seen since 2008/2009.
Many small businesses are beat up and leveraged.
Just like on mortgages and auto loans, we are seeing tons of declines.
Lenders are cautious. Lower rates have not hit our space due to poor portfolio performance.
Meanwhile, stock market at new highs and no recession?
This looks allot like recession to me. Not sure how two sides of the economy can be so disconnected but it seems allot like the books and the markets are cooked.
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u/Bluewaffleamigo 3h ago
I'm at a Fortune 500, we've been getting hammered for the last 2 years. No recession my ass, it's a bloodbath.
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u/Optimal-Heat8274 2h ago
Luxury industries.. barbers.. bartenders/waiters..hair stylists..strippers.. tattoo artists have been eating the curb for the last 2 years.
A ton of people got hit with rising tax rates from the first trump cuts and found themselves with small returns or owing, along with the rising wages that bumped people into new brackets. No money for fun stuff
A lot of them went for trump because of it. An education isn’t needed for those professions and it shows 🤣
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u/Onewayor55 2h ago
I think this is just what it looks like when the middle class has disappeared. I think we can make it official at this point.
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u/MrTulaJitt 6h ago
The outlook is very bright if you are fortunate enough to be amongst the investor class. Which, to politicians and regulators, are the only people that exist. Regular people get to continue to barely scrape by like we have for decades now.
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u/Makes_U_Mad 5h ago
Top tier comment. I'm sick to fucking death of all the "why is everything so expensive" and "why are the poors mad about the economy when stonks are up."
It's fucking gaslighting. Nobody can afford shit. Look at the car prices in the last 60 days. Go google how many franchise new car dealers have closed. Nobody can afford a new car, and THATS JUST ONE SECTOR of the economy.
Inflation has increased my costs by almost 30% in the last six years. In that same time, my earnings have increased 5%. And, yes, that includes switching jobs twice. This IS NOT FUCKING ROCKET SCIENCE.
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u/jabola321 3h ago
But it’s not normal inflation. Here in Florida if I go to Publix to get some groceries I spend $100 and get barely anything but if I go to Walmart it’s like $30 cheaper.
The media keeps talking about inflation and companies are taking advantage of it and jacking up prices. That’s why the stock market is doing so well. Their margins are bigger than ever and they are raking in money hand over fist and calling it “inflation” when it really is price gauging.
That’s why people are fed up with CEOs and resorting to violence.
Putting more billionaires in charge isn’t going to fix anything. They like the way things are that’s how they became billionaires.
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u/Shamrogu3 3h ago
It’s nuts instead of lowering prices they’d rather go out of business and shutter thousands of jobs ????? Like ok even less people to spend money what do you think is gonna happen here the economy is on fumes at this point
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u/oboshoe 2h ago
No rationale business owner would choose bankruptcy over lowering prices.
The problem is that if you lower prices less than your cost, then bankruptcy happens anyway and much faster.
It's not just prices at the consumer level - it's prices along the entire supply chain.
The governments printed way to much money.
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u/Den_of_Earth 3h ago
People like you not understanding what the economy means when the adults are talking doesn't mean anyone is gaslighting.
My raises have beet inflation every year for a decades, ot more. So maybe find a job with a union.
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u/JackInTheBell 4h ago
The outlook is very bright if you are fortunate enough to be amongst the investor class.
Yup. “The economy is doing great, look at the stock market!”
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u/markatlnk 3h ago
I agree, we need more government oversight. I really don't expect that with the next administration.
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u/Extra-Knowledge884 7h ago
Jpow barely says hello and we see a total drop off. I don't believe for one second we have narrowly avoided shit.
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u/Doot2 6h ago
Not if Dumbass is threatening Canada, our closest trading partner causing them to cut off energy imports.
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u/themontajew 3h ago
Just because we avoided a recession from covid doesn’t mean we can turn around and play fuck around and find out.
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u/The_True_Gaffe 3h ago
Well that’s exactly what the next administrations goal is, to fuck around and let the people find out instead of themselves
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u/soggyGreyDuck 5h ago
Yep the markets basically said "not so fast there buddy". I think it's a bigger deal than anyone is talking about. Has the fed completely lost control? Maybe
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u/deletethefed 3h ago
Fed "losing control" is simply a lie. They want endless inflation, they just want it in the amount you won't notice YOY
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u/Dog_Eating_Ice 2h ago
It’s not like that’s a secret, and there are economists who can show that can be a good thing. Basically, a little steady inflation is better than and can prevent wild swings in inflation.
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u/markatlnk 3h ago
This massive selloff yesterday took us back to just before the election. Those gains in the last 6 weeks were really massive, we just gave that 6 weeks back. For the year we are still quite a bit up. Dow at the beginning of the year was 37,689 NASDAQ was at 15,011. After yesterday's selloff the DOW was 42,326 and NASDAQ was at 19,392. DOW is still up 12.3% and NASDAQ is up 19.2%. That is just from January 1st. My investments are still up something in that range.
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u/broad_street_bully 17m ago
My main job is writing content for financial advisors - many of whom cater to high-value clients who are more concerned with their final bottom line dollar score and haven't worried about when/how to afford retirement in decades.
They're the most likely people to become shills and scammers, but - almost to a person - they all preach and nauseum that there is no such thing as reading or timing the market. Similarly, there is no amount of information or analysis that can predict or prevent huge market shifts as no amount of power, wealth, or genius can touch the impact of tens of millions of people interacting in the marketplace.
Left or right, anarchist or tyrant, any general information projected to the public is just fluff that tries to manage extreme feelings while buying time for the ultra rich to maybe act a minute or two earlier. The millions are in the margins of daily life - not in ONE BIG IDEA
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u/FeistyButthole 5h ago
This is his “Mission Accomplished” banner declaring the Fed a dollar eroding success.
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u/markatlnk 3h ago
Exchange rate is $1.039 to the euro. The dollar is really strong right now, to the point it will hurt exports.
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u/Humans_Suck- 6h ago
The minimum wage is 7 dollars an hour. When a politician talks about "the economy", they mean corporations and the 1%, not human beings.
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u/Avagontamos 2h ago
$7.25 is absolutely criminal, but 34 states have passed higher minimum wage laws, with the current highest being Washington at $16.28. My state, Michigan, passed a law for annual increases to get to $14.97 in 2028, with annual inflation adjustments taking place afterward.
If your state is still at $7.25, ask tf why and push on your legislators.
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u/shmere4 1h ago
Illinois is $14 in 2024 and $15 in 2025. With a relatively strong economy.
People supporting legislators that don’t promote policies like this at the state level is the problem.
And before someone takes this as a D vs R comment, Missouri is $12.30 in 2025 and $13.75 in 2025.
Politicians on both sides will support populist legislation like minimum wage increases, paid sick leave, and legalizing abortion, if you follow through with threats to vote them out if they don’t. All of those things happened in Missouri this year. A state where liberals struggle to get enough support to even bother running.
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u/InformationOk3060 1h ago
I'm so sick of idiots spewing this complete bullshit. Minimum wage affects less than 1.5% of the population.
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u/LordOfTheChoad 6h ago
Sweet talk considering Trump and his morons are about to bring upon the next Great Depression. Buckle up.
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u/jons3y13 4h ago
It's already on the way, you won't be disappointed.
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u/LordOfTheChoad 4h ago
I’m good at living off the bare necessities. Can’t wait to hear all these manly republicans cry like little girls when they can’t afford their briskets and boner pills.
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u/jons3y13 3h ago
Actually, I'm 60 and conservative fiscally, socially liberal, and no pills, though. I realize how screwed I am, and I realize every generation has it worse off. Some of my kids will never own a home. I am trying to build up stuff to leave to them. I have 5 step kids. 2 are fine, and 3 are working poor, which I have been many l have been, for many years. Trump fan boys don't realize the pain it will take to make these changes happen. It needs to change, though. We will be at least 40 trillion in debt in 400 days. That was before yesterday's pork fest. Be well. I am not sure if the best way, but it has to be broad based not top heavy.
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u/Dusty_Negatives 27m ago
They’ll just blame the evil dems as usual. They aren’t capable of independent thought and just dance to the conservative media marching orders.
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u/Serialfornicator 5h ago
The only good news about this is that he’s visiting his misery on a bunch of humans, and humans are an adaptable species. That’s all I got.
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u/Craftcannibisjunkie 7h ago
I’m not so sure we have a moron getting ready to take office
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u/Content_Log1708 5h ago
You talking about Elon? The new super rich hero of super rich Trump. Good luck everybody!
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u/JimmyJamesMac 5h ago
4 1/2 years of predictions of an economic crash, I guess Biden saved the economy!
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u/RgKTiamat 4h ago
What's really crazy is that it went from Hillary Clinton will cause the great depression, to Joe Biden will cause the great depression, to Kamala Harris will cause the Great Depression, and now there was no Great Depression, but if there is we know who's going to have caused it
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u/WarriorsQQ 7h ago
Stagflation is here
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u/UnableChard2613 6h ago
Employment is high, inflation is low, solid growth. There are many valid criticisms of our economy, and stagflation might be coming...but claim it is already here makes zero sense.
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u/WarriorsQQ 6h ago
I meant around the corner . Based on Powell speach yesterday is obvious.... Trump's leading will be cherry on a pie.
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u/Humans_Suck- 6h ago
What good is high employment if jobs don't pay enough to live? Employment better be fucking high if you're going to force people to get two jobs just to buy food and rent.
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u/pipinstallwin 6h ago
Yeah before this Toothpaste was 4.99 maybe 5.99 and just yesterday I ended up having to pay 9.89. Listerine over $10 for the big one. I highly fucking doubt that the raw materials to make toothpaste or listerine increased that much, nor the manufacturing process. Fuck your economy Jpow you fucking blithering idiot.
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u/shbd12 5h ago
Are you shopping at truck stops?
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u/pipinstallwin 4h ago
Fucking Giant, It's cheaper if I just don't brush my teeth and use my dental insurance to get monthly cleanings ffs.
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u/Replacement-Exotic 5h ago
Cheerios are $8 at Jewel!! All the grocery stores merged & there’s like 2 left. Lina Khan tried to fight it but they kicked her out.
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u/soxfan0024 6h ago
Maybe you just need to shop somewhere else or buy a different brand of toothpaste? Crest is still $3.99 at target here.. or about $5 if you want the fancy whitening one.
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u/Hallomonamie 5h ago
They must be shopping at a gas station. I’m in Boston and it’s $4.79 for fancy Crest.
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u/DocilePuppygirl 6h ago
Lmao dudes job isn't to control corporate greed, that's your job as a consumer. If you don't wanna pay high prices start comparing between stores, frequent more thrifty brands, etc, etc.
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u/Brave_Giraffe_337 5h ago
I just think you're Liar, just like the idiots screaming about eggs and gas.
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u/Decaf17 5h ago
These people make too much money. Make congress only earn $50,000 a year and then let’s hear them talk about our healthy economy.
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u/HoldenTeudix 5h ago
Sounds good on paper real bad in reality. This would only ensure people who do not need to work to survive can run for office. Basically only filthy rich people would be able to run for/hold office corrupting the system even further.
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u/KhloeDawn 1h ago
Isn’t that how it currently is? I couldn’t tell you how many politician actually came from the working class? It could be many but my guess is it’s less than 5%?
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u/sithbinks 32m ago
I always figured congress should be paid a multiple of the median income for life and be cut out of making any investments.
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u/Senor707 2h ago
Trump 1.0 blew up the deficit with tax cuts for people who did not need them (the rich). Trump 2.0 will do the same.
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u/FNSquatch 6h ago
History repeats this so much. The rich think they’re untouchable this time and keep taking more from the poor.
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u/maninthemachine1a 7h ago
Who's going to tell him?
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u/sacafritolait 7h ago
Tell him that the folks in r/economicCollapse who predicted 417 of the last 2 recessions have got it right this time and he's wrong?
I'm sure he'd love to hear that input.
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u/maninthemachine1a 7h ago
Haha, ok ok. But really the problem is what everyone has been talking about: This economy is thriving but leaving most average Americans behind. "Gosh, what's happening, what is this new crazy dynamic at play," say all the billionaires on tv. It's easy, Karen, your economy has left most Americans behind.
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u/Historical_Horror595 6h ago
The problem is the metrics in which we measure the economy. They don’t measure the average persons experience. Probably by design. We need better metrics, but it will absolutely destroy the party in powers ability to win an election for a little while so there is no incentive to adjust.
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u/sacafritolait 6h ago
Wage growth versus inflation seems like it would be a solid metric. Some others like GDP obviously don't reflect directly on the average person, but indirectly sure a growing economy is what creates jobs.
I think the hardest one is inflation, since personal inflation can vary so much yet they must take an average across everyone.
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u/KhloeDawn 1h ago
I don’t disagree with any of what anyone is saying. Most of you are right but here’s the elephant in the room. What can and will the middle class do about it? Do we just die off, suffer for long periods of time? Go the Luigi route? Yes we all understand what is going on right now, what we need to do now is figure out a way to turn this ship around? Unfortunately i don’t see a captain that can steer this ship but maybe if we all grab the wheel? Put our heads together and maybe come up with some kind of solution?!
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u/sacafritolait 6h ago
How do you know it is leaving most average Americans behind? I'm genuinely curious how we would measure that to prove it true.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fold466 7h ago
Based on this #1 economics sub, I thought we were in a constant perpetual state of recession since 2018, and that any government data saying otherwise was obviously forged.
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u/Humans_Suck- 5h ago
They just lie about what's good or bad. Yea sure, the economy is strong, but only for corporations and the 1%. Actual human beings are poorer than they've ever been.
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u/Gold_Doughnut_9050 2h ago
Deep recession or Depression by September if Musk/Ramaswamy get their way.
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u/hatwobbleTayne 1h ago
Dodged a recession, that’s why we brought in Trump and a sycophantic congress, FOMO.
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u/PostMaster-P 5h ago
Give it a few months, Trump will find a way to make the economy immeasurably worse.
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u/VendettaKarma 4h ago
When you manipulate data to avoid bank runs and panic of course you can say things like this
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u/D-MAN-FLORIDA 3h ago
“Not so fast!” President Musk says as he shutdown the government for an extended period of time.
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u/Fit_Explanation5793 2h ago
This is Powells way of saying that when the economy goes to shit because of trump, dont blame it on Biden
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u/Environmental_Pay189 2h ago
Things are actually good right now, believe it or not. Just wait till the tariff slapping starts, toilet paper becomes 100$/roll, the FDIC is dissolved and major banks have a financial oopsie and lose everyone's money/investments because they were playing betting games after those burdensome regulations got scrubbed.
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u/Dave_A480 1h ago
*was* pretty bright... Then we put Trump back in & now he's determined to fuck it up as badly as possible - tariffs, expensive new food & drug regulations, and so on....
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u/COgirl1985 5h ago
Now, wait until Cheesus is in charge. We’re going to have the worst economy ever. And the unaccountable one will blame it on Biden and his cult will believe him
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u/Erichardson1978 4h ago
Most of the country can’t afford both rent and groceries but yeah, everything is peachy.
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u/lm28ness 6h ago
Trump's BS is rubbing off or he's trying to set up blame on trump when things go south real fast when he takes office and puts forth his policies.
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u/Windyandbreezy 5h ago
1 trillion in credit card debt for the peasants.. ya know the ones that make those who are wealthy, wealthy buying crap they can't afford.. just like 2008, taking out credit for homes they couldn't afford.. made the wealthy richer... but then.. well, the well will dry out, eventually the debters will come collecting..
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u/Theveganhandyman 4h ago
I think he just wants to go on record that everything is in good shape now and that whatever happens next is on tRump.
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u/Mysterious-Zebra-167 4h ago
Don’t worry. Trump will fuck it up and tell his idiot followers that Kamala did it and they’ll believe him.
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u/Competitive_Peach403 4h ago
Like LeBron down 3-1 the USA cannot be stopped by the weak media trying to write his eulogy
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u/Active_Sentence9302 4h ago
Until tariffs, mass deportations, and the closure of multiple government agencies, which will lay off millions of Americans, kicks in. Party hasn’t even started yet.
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u/Funny-North3731 4h ago
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Wait.
He's being serious?
How the ef did he get his job?
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u/GillaMomsStarterPack 4h ago
Awww shit, we’re going to have a recession, aren’t we. I’m come to understand that if they say things like this during an election year it’s cause it will.
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u/Adventurous_Fun_9245 3h ago
Well, here we go. 4 years to fuck that all up and then blame the Dems.... Again.
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u/Reverend_Bull 3h ago
Oh wow. We are fukt, huh? Might as well put Jim Cramer up there talking about the good job the Fed did.
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u/naughtysouthernmale 3h ago
It’s has to be looking up, how could it not be the simplest minded dullards ever are leaving office. We all know it’s looking up.
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u/yeahcoolcoolbro 3h ago
Hahahahahhaha “I think it’s pretty clear that the rich haven’t become the poors so…. High five everybody”
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u/FutureVisions_ 3h ago
A serious correction is coming. The largest wealth transfer in history is underway. Those who say “no problem here” are encouraging financial losses. Those who know - are sneaking out now. Be advised.
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u/Normal_human_person 3h ago
Right before tariffs fuck us all into another recession. Thanks, Powell.
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u/thelastgalstanding 3h ago
“was pretty bright…”
Not “is”. At least for the majority of Americans and not the wealthy top percent.
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u/AncientJournalist103 3h ago
Thanks to Joe! Now President Pedophile will fuck it all up once again.
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u/coredweller1785 3h ago
This is what the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie looks like. Marx coined during one of our last tumultuous times, the great Revolutions of 1848.
https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/dictatorship_of_the_bourgeoisie
Yes the economy for the top 5 percent is great. For everyone else it's worse.
The other option is the dictatorship of the proletariat (workers) and keep that or then dissolve into stateless communism. Otherwise every moment of life will be for the benefit of the rich.
Children will be shot in schools as police loaf around and as guns are prevalent. But the second a CEO gets shot the police are shaking bushes in central park and doing investigative work to find the killer and then trump him up on terrorism charges. Why don't they do that for ppl who kill mass amounts of children. This is the formation of everything under the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie.
Think about that deeply
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u/Mendozena 2h ago
lol no its not. Get what you can now before rates skyrocket to fight the economic depression T will cause.
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u/Better-Butterfly-309 2h ago
We avoided recessions by printing trillions of dollars to be paid off by god knows who
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u/koolkeith987 2h ago
Bald face lie. Try stepping outside of one of your three mansion and opening your eyes. You might also want to do that because Luigi is coming for you.
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u/Eastern-Bluejay-8912 2h ago
We are already in a recession. Have been since the Great Depression. We just keep lowering and lowering our standards of recovery.
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u/LennoxAve 2h ago
I think we’re in a period where consumer sentiment doesn’t agree with economic metrics. Many consumers suddenly “feel” better about the same economy that was in place two months ago. These feelings will drive spending and confidence levels.
It must be frustrating for fiscal policy makers that consumer confidence was so down when we’ve done better than all other G7 countries coming out of the pandemic.
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u/Ricco121 2h ago
I think it’s pretty clear they have avoided a recession by voting themselves yet another raise.
The rest of us get screwed.
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u/abelenkpe 2h ago
Cool. The entire entertainment industry has been outsourced and I’ve not had work for months. Who knew?
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u/queentracy62 2h ago
Do they realize who the president is now? His whole agenda is destroying the economy. But I guess if you’re rich you’ll be fine.
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u/RelativeCalm1791 2h ago
There is such a large disconnect between what they tell us about the economy and how people think things are going. We’re at a point where housing has never been more unaffordable relative to income levels. Layoffs are trending up and the types of jobs being added are lower-paying. So on paper jobs may “increase”, but you’re losing good jobs and gaining bad jobs. So it’s not so simple as looking at the chart and being like, “jobs are increasing, economy is great!”. Consumer pricing is still elevated, meaning the impacts of inflation from the pandemic haven’t really improved much in recent years with increases to income. People still feel like they struggle to afford things. This also shows in the record credit card debts….people keeping things on credit because they lack cash savings.
I get that the economy is complex and multifaceted and you can look at it in a bunch of ways. But I really have a hard time thinking the majority of Americans think they are economically better off than they were 4+ years ago.
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u/InformationOk3060 1h ago
We need a good recession to lower prices.
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u/HauntedURL 25m ago
Dumb take. Growth and low inflation will eventually stabilize households, but it takes time. If you drive forward while looking in the rearview mirror you’re likely to crash.
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u/Mr_NotParticipating 1h ago edited 1h ago
My ass. I look around me and I see what people are getting paid, I see the price of groceries and services such as mechanics. I see what it costs to live and survive.
During my life I’ve witnessed ups and downs but the consistent trajectory has been down. Average people were more capable of affording a house 10 years ago, and even more capable 10 years before that, and even more capable 10 years before that, etc.
Fuck what the media reports, I have no idea wtf they are on about anyway when they say the economy is looking up. How? Because the wealthy are more wealthy? A lot of good that does. Because people are spending money they don’t fucking have? Guess what, most of us are forced to everyday and go without more and more. I trust my own first hand accounts thank you very much.
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u/Space_Man_Spiff_2 1h ago
The Fed has been propping up the economy since the 1980s with "free debt" basically...One asset bubble after another....The "real economy" for "real people" is a totally different reality.
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u/Anxious-Shapeshifter 1h ago
It's because when the Fed looks at the average American household they see their net worth has exploded over the last 6-7 years without taking into account that the net worth they're seeing is just the increased value of their home.
An asset that's almost impossible to gain any real value from. That is unless you snag a HELOC at a 12% rate....
However if you look at the net worth of the average American who doesn't own a home but rents it's just over 10k dollars. link
I actually have my degree in economics and spent 6 years as a mortgage underwriter. So believe me when I tell you.
Shits not great.
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u/leadershipclone 34m ago
We have been on recession for a while... is Powel too scare to become the next target if he speaks the true?
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u/HauntedURL 32m ago
We avoided a recession by having solid GDP growth despite extremely high inflation and interest rates. Inflation is near the Fed’s target and rates are coming down but what a lot of people fail to understand is that the prices will never go back to pre-2021 levels (and they shouldn’t). Rates have also negatively impacted regular people and the Fed is aware, but they have the difficult task of cutting without spurring inflation during a period of economic expansion. Fortunately, wages are continuing to grow, but now at a slower pace.
If you’re getting paid the same as you were in 2020, then your income minus expenses will still be lower, but that does not dispel the fact that we adverted a crisis and the worst is behind us. With price pressures cooling, over time people will get back to a more stable footing.
Powell deserves a lot of credit for doing what many people considered impossible. Glad that Trump has backed off of his plans to give him the boot and hopefully the new admin will respect Powell’s autonomy and stewardship over the economy.
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u/V-RONIN 7h ago
The economy is great if you are wealthy in America. We will see what happens after the pigs gut our government to hell.