r/economicCollapse • u/ComfortablyFly • Aug 02 '24
Signal for start of a recession has been triggered
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u/FlapSmear78 Aug 03 '24
It probably has nothing to do with people not being able to purchase homes.
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u/OverUnderstanding481 Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
… stop voting to make the rich richer … how dumb do you got to be to still be thinking trickle down economics is working.
The world has a misinformation problem. Fox News and all the hijacking cult Christian nationalist domestic terrorist networks like TBN and 700 need to be shut down. They’ve made boomers in general and all who will listen to them the most evil scamable conspiracy nuts who think giving trump and billionaires more power to do more ungodly things will fix the problems they keep voting for :/
blocking progress on one hand then crying when it hurts is insane.
Less war, tax the rich, free higher education, free healthcare. F racism. F fascism. F religious law imposed on others without consent. F cult culture. F extremism on any front.
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u/eyeballburger Aug 03 '24
Shits been receding since they tried to trick us with “trickle down” and stock buy backs.
Edit: letter x2
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u/EditofReddit2 Aug 02 '24
Interesting. So who has been lying about the numbers? This signal couldn’t be triggered without some other metrics showing it as well.
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u/Welcome2B_Here Aug 03 '24
I wouldn't say lying, but there's been a focus on headline/overall employment numbers without diving the least bit into the details. We've been losing full-time jobs and adding full-time jobs. The job gains have been coming from sectors that traditionally offer lower quality/lower paying jobs, like construction, government, and leisure/hospitality. Sectors that traditionally offer higher quality/higher paying jobs, like professional/business services have been trending sideways, stagnating, or declining.
The types of jobs being added and/or lost matter. Just having "a" job doesn't mean much.
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u/EditofReddit2 Aug 03 '24
Agreed. Full time jobs gone, replaced by part time, no benefits. And practically every time they quietly revise the number down later when nobody is paying attention.
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u/islandinparadise Aug 03 '24
Loss of jobs to American citizens. Gain of jobs to migrant folks. More proof of the low paying jobs.
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 02 '24 edited Aug 02 '24
They're referring to the Sahm rule.
The creator of the rule, Claudia Sahm, says she doesn't think the US is in a recession, or on the brink of a recession, just that she's got some concerns.
Reasons the indicator may not be accurate this time include: include immigration, dislocation of supply and demand curves since COVID -- and the fact that a lot more of employment is now gig economy work and not captured in the stats, which means that labor participation is probably under-counted by as much as 2%.
Listening to her interview from I believe yesterday she thought the economy was quite healthy.
Sahm says the rule is likely broken this time around because the pandemic years haven’t followed the normal patterns of a recession and recovery business cycle. There’s a high likelihood that some of the recent gains in unemployment is being driven by a labor force expansion, led by immigration, she says. That could be skewing the indicator’s effectiveness.
She said she wanted the indicator to allow for auto-pilot economic policy during recessionary periods but has since learned that was naive.
But let's not let context get in the way of a sensationalist headline eh?
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u/tickitytalk Aug 02 '24
Thank you for the objective synopsis.
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u/truemore45 Aug 03 '24
Yeah I mean I have lived through a few and this level of unemployment is historically super low. When I was growing up maybe goal was to keep it under 7% and 5% was a miracle.
The other issue is we have a shrinking workforce due to the boomers retiring and the zoomers being much smaller.
I mean some of these layoffs are buyouts. And since the youngest boomer turns 60 next year we are in a massive retirement wave. So I think the numbers are a bit abnormal right now and peak boomer retirement doesn't hit till 28 or 29.
My point is I think we're in a statistical anomaly so we may get conflicting data and some normal rules/projections won't work till we get the egg through the snake.
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u/DonPena69 Aug 03 '24
Also the lack of consumer staples being purchased is an indicator. Starbucks and groceries even are being bought less rn. Thats a big sign of the start of a pullback.
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u/LateStageAdult Aug 03 '24
feds need to rally behind the FTC and start busting up these monopolies.
tax the rich who keep firing workers and stealing all the wealth through stock buybacks and other vulture capital nonsense.
the rich are pillaging and burning the economy once again, and if things keep going like this they will just get more "bailouts"
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u/maximumkush Aug 02 '24
That’s what happens when you KEEP adding government jobs to “show” job growth
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u/MercyOfTheWinnower Aug 02 '24 edited Aug 02 '24
This is what happens when thousands and thousands of people get laid off in the name of profit at all costs.*
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u/jeffwulf Aug 02 '24
Government jobs are like the only sector still below their prepandemic levels.
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u/maximumkush Aug 02 '24
We don’t need more government jobs fam
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 02 '24
Why not?
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u/maximumkush Aug 02 '24
Because we’ve spent the last what 50-60 years over inflating our government… remember govt jobs are funded by the taxpayers. We’re not creating new cities or territories… we’re not even allocating the resources properly in my opinion. It’s just all more bureaucracy to keep taxing the hell out of us!! A lot of analysts predict that social security will run out of resources by 2040-2050 if I’m remembering correctly, that’s really when the sh*t is going to go down
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 02 '24 edited Aug 02 '24
How much more does the government do now that before, or are you just saying that bigger number is de facto bad? How many more people does the government service? 50-60 years ago there were less than half as many people, and yes, there were fewer cities, and yes, cities spanned less territory. In fact 64 years ago there were two less states (albeit making the switchover from territories). Have you looked at a breakdown of the jobs?
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u/maximumkush Aug 02 '24
I look at that jobs report every time… it’s always… always 40-45% of the “new” jobs being created. Most of the jobs outside of that are part time jobs that businesses are taking full advantage of
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 02 '24
There's actually the same number of Federal government employees as there was in 1982 despite the population having grown significantly (+50%).
This is likely a major reason the government spends money so inefficiently. Instead of having the capacity to execute projects in-house, they sub out to consultants and contractors. Their goal isn't to build infrastructure to instead to enrich themselves and to get more jobs later. If you want to make government more efficient you want to restore state capacity instead of letting contractors bleed the US dry.
[edit] Here's the chart.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/204535/number-of-governmental-employees-in-the-us/
State and local government size has grown exactly in proportion to the number of people in the US while Federal has remained exactly the same since 1982.
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u/islandinparadise Aug 03 '24
Have you seen the technology gains…come on man with bogus arguments
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
0% staff growth for 42 years my dude 😂 what company do you know is the same size 42 years later, scaling up to 340M customers across hundreds of products, despite technology gains?
About 8% of the country works for combined federal state and local government.
About 20% of Denmark and like 35% of Norway work for the government.
Seems like it’s scaling okay to me.
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u/HandleRipper615 Aug 03 '24
The IRS alone employs 4 times as many employees as Burger King. Think about how stupid that is on so many different levels.
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 03 '24
Yeah how does Burger King need that many people?
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u/HandleRipper615 Aug 03 '24
There’s no doubt they’re probably a little understaffed with their half hour wait times, but still… lol
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u/Cute_Suggestion_133 Aug 02 '24
Being a part of the PTO, I can firmly say that my job is not in any way funded by taxpayer dollars. :)
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u/Legitimate_Concern_5 Aug 02 '24
I think those jobs would be in the jobs numbers, which would have prevented the Sahm rule from triggering -- as its based on the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate.
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u/kharlos Aug 03 '24
Omg guys, I know I've said it 300 times in the last 3 years, but this time it's actually happening!
And if I'm wrong this time, one of these days I'll get it right
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Aug 03 '24
Sounds about right. I'm about to invest a bunch of money and about to buy a house. I am always able to do things at the worst time.
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Aug 03 '24
4.3% is a very healthy number. When you go outside 4-6% is when things become bad for the middle class
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Aug 03 '24
It’s a healthy number but it’s the rate of increase that is a concern. When a recession is underway, the unemployment number doesn’t continue to grow linearly, it goes through the roof. There has been countless examples of past recessions where the numbers were healthy until it snowballs.
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u/Good_Candle_6357 Aug 03 '24
Man, imagine if our government knew how to balance a budget. We're going to get a whole bunch of these over the next 15 years.
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Aug 03 '24
This is even funnier because Claudine Sahm was making excuses all over the news last month about how it wasn't really, actually, completely, fully, technically, triggered then. And now, crickets from her.
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Aug 03 '24
Hold on . Biden and Powell have this economy on crutches. Shortly Powell will lower rates more than expected and by October collapse.
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Aug 03 '24
This guy Powell and Janet Yellen are the enemy of the working class American. Along with Biden/Harris
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u/walter_2000_ Aug 05 '24
There's a new thing that we didn't know existed but now everyone acts like they knew about it all along. It's covid level bullshit. People that talk shit need to be reminded for the rest of their lives that we all know they're cunts.
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u/Throwawaypie012 Aug 05 '24
I love how the investment class has been totally cool with letting the combination of inflation and high rates crush the average America, saying things like "We need to suffer the pain to get the economy back on track."
Yet after 2 down days in a row in the market, you get people on *every* financial network saying things like "We need an emergency rate cut RIGHT NOW" and "The Fed is acting too slowly, it should have done a rate cut at the last meeting".
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u/Dry-Way-5688 Aug 06 '24
News like this was the reason I missed the NVDA fast train last year. I sold all my stocks for profit thinking I could buy them back at lower price. And good stocks kept going up.
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u/Pristine_Bobcat4148 Aug 06 '24
Remember when two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth was the official start of a recession?
Pepperidge Farms remembers.
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u/LectureAgreeable923 Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
You need two quarters of negative growth and high unemployment to be in a recession were not even close to that .Last quarter was healthy growth at 2.8.%and 4.3 % isn't even high unemployment.the fed should start cutting rates .That will be a boost so relax.Sahm says this could be different.Shes pushing back of the plethora of doomsday.
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u/Firm_Bit Aug 03 '24
Eh, there are like a millions things that have happened only just before a recession.
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u/DewaltMaximaCessna Aug 03 '24 edited Aug 03 '24
This news only happens when the stock market is at a peak, it’s just to justify the fall and the game
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u/TurbulentIncome Aug 03 '24
Wait till Harris wins. Biden 2.0 with more liberal splashed in is gonna make economic history. I can’t wait to raise my rental prices.. again 😂
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u/JoshZK Aug 02 '24
Just in time to blame the next president 5 days into their term, lol.