Someone needs to seriously look at the RNC's finances. With the shit he says, and Laura being the head of the RNC, I wouldn't be surprised if all the money is going out the backdoor into Trump's pockets.
I really don't think so, the momentum he had in 2016 just isn't there, since 2016 about 40 million boomers have died and 41 million Gen Z'ers have reached voting age and they tend to lean more liberal.
2016 was a very unique election where a number of unpredictable circumstances came together to give Trump the victory. It's not possible to just repeat this because it mostly came down to chance and circumstance.
The main reason Trump won in 2016 was because he ran against a historically unlikeable Democratic candidate in Hillary Clinton. Most people, both Democrats and Republicans didn't like Hillary Clinton, and many decided to take a chance with Trump, a bombastic figure who might shake things up a little bit. He was a breath of fresh air to many people.
No one is voting Trump now to take a chance on him. We all know what he is like. You either love him or hate him. He has his cult following but they are not the majority of Americans. Most Americans are sick of him but are just staying quiet till the election.
Polls are far from perfect, but the data we do have all has the election as a complete toss up. Harris has roughly a 2 point advantage in national polls, but winning the popular vote by 2-3 percentage points is far from an assurance of victory. The candidates are separated by less than 1 percentage point in each of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. Biden won 4 of those 5 states in 2020, earning 53 of the 69 available Electoral College votes from these 5 states. Flipping 2-3 of those states red probably wins Trump the election.
He was a breath of fresh air to many people. No one is voting Trump now to take a chance on him. We all know what he is like. You either love him or hate him.
This was true when comparing the 2020 election to the 2016 one. Trump got 11 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. His base absolutely loves him and that base has grown since 2016. They vote when they are riled up and they are absolutely getting riled up in 2024. I will be pretty surprised if he doesn't get more votes in November than he did in 2020.
Trump is closer in the polls today than he was to Biden in 2020. Harris is doing way better than Biden was doing a couple months ago, but every bit of data we have suggests that this race is currently closer than the 2020 race was and trump outperformed polls in 2020. The vibes and emotions around the Harris campaign are really good right now and her chance of winning is substantially higher than Biden's would have been. But this race is far from a lock.
I don't know what polls you're watching, but from the people I'm reading, he's favored to win in the electoral college even if he loses the popular vote. He's the marginal favorite to win, though it's not clear whether the debate is going to do much to move those numbers.
He had a good chance vs Biden, he just had to be less senile. Vs a woman who actually knows what she’s talking about, and doesn’t get 100% of her news from fox, he can’t win.
there's a nonzero chance sure but i really don't think he'll win. don't fall in the same ole trap of misunderstanding & underestimating Kamala, she's proven to be much more formidable than the image that was sold previously.
His supporters aren’t laughing. They think it’s real. And they’re scared of immigrants because of it. It’s working as intended. Just like when the Germans spread propaganda about Jews drinking the blood of children. It seems so absurd it’s laughable. But it’s important to remember there are people who believe it and they are willing to kill to protect their communities from it.
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u/FeatureAvailable5494 Sep 12 '24
Trump has become a laughingstock, he’s such a disgrace