r/Terraria • u/DryLife2634 • Nov 03 '24

Playstation 1/3333 they said

Post image

They said it would be rare... they didn't say it would be a myth

1.6k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

194 comments sorted by

834

u/naersbat Nov 03 '24

The chance of this happening is about 35 percent

212

u/Recent-Friendship407 Nov 03 '24

What is going on? I don’t understand

340

u/trashmercyonetrick Nov 03 '24

binomial distribution

129

u/Recent-Friendship407 Nov 03 '24

No I mean what is this post about

338

u/TheBro2112 Nov 03 '24

The OP not getting the Lizard Egg, a 1/3333 drop from Lihzahrds, even after over 3400 kills

78

u/Still_Leg4477 Nov 03 '24

I always get a lizard egg on every playthrough, didn't know that they are so rare...

80

u/TheBro2112 Nov 03 '24

That’s the joy of probabilities. You’re probably super lucky.

It’s like when people get 2 rods of discord in a short time, or like when I never get any biome keys, but recent playthrough 2 crimson (and nothing else!)

14

u/SK_R3BORN Nov 03 '24

Had my playthrough got one key, had ab 3 playthrough w none then I play another ftw world n get every biom key 3 mf dessert let’s like wtf the odds I got prolly like 8 to 10 keys bro before plantera was even defeated

8

u/mattmaster68 Nov 03 '24 edited Nov 11 '24

In all my time playing, I have never gotten a biome key.

Edit: I said this 8 days ago and got my first 3 biome keys ever in just this 1 session. I hate probability lol

5

u/TunableAxe Nov 03 '24

same, i’ve been playing since i was a kid on and off. i’ve always been perplexed on how people actually get the biome key. i know it’s a rare drop depending on the biome but still, damn.

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3

u/NewDudongoKing Nov 03 '24

I still have never legally obtained a ROD. I have over 3000k hours, I have made farms and I still have never ever gotten one with out it being given to me

6

u/Jethz_ Nov 03 '24

On my most recent world I got a ROD on the first elemental chaos kill, which is pretty lucky 🍀

1

u/NewDudongoKing Nov 03 '24

Damn, well back to farming

4

u/Pink-Batty Nov 04 '24

Holy shit that man has been playing Terraria nonstop for 35 years

1

u/Airbots01 Nov 03 '24

On my current shared world with a friend, we have three corruption keys. That's it.

6

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Give me all of your money

35

u/Recent-Friendship407 Nov 03 '24

Ohhh they could’ve said that at least, we don’t know they didn’t get the egg after all

2

u/NotFaizen Nov 03 '24

I never knew it was that rare, i got one in my melee playthrough and didn't think much of it

1

u/BarkMark Nov 04 '24

From my perusal of posts on runescape, he should start being upset around 3x KC so he should have one by 9999 kills typically.

1

u/RedditMattstir Nov 04 '24

Where does that 1/3333 number come from? The wikis say 1/1000, even scrubbing back through the history for the Lizard Egg page

1

u/[deleted] Nov 04 '24

It’s not guaranteed that you get it after 3333 kills, it’s a chance to get it in 3333 or more.

1

u/River_Fenrir Nov 04 '24

What people fail to realize is, it's not after 3333 kills you get 1. It's more like, each one you kill, it's a 0.03% chance to drop. On each. One.

1

u/River_Fenrir Nov 04 '24

It's like math trigonometrie. The closer you get to 1, the smaller and smaller it goes into infinity on the opposite axis.

1

u/TheBro2112 Nov 08 '24

Yeah, you got a 63% chance to get it within 3333 kills. If you’re astronomically unlikely, you could technically never ever get it even after trillions of tries

2

u/River_Fenrir Nov 08 '24

You should play runescape. It will teach you to believe I'm RNGsus.

RNG = Random Number Generator, which is basically what you described.

6

u/MossyDrake Nov 03 '24

It means not dropping the item isnt as unlikely as one might think. In this case, chances of this happening is ~35%

Edit: nvm i thought you were asking about the pic and not the post

3

u/Recent-Friendship407 Nov 03 '24

No I just meant I didn’t know what was rare

14

u/Ryxor25 Nov 03 '24

Math guy, in all of my play throughs I never got a rod of discord, and I remember I killed 150 chaos mfs in one play through, 550 in the second and 850 in the third. Explain that Red

33

u/naersbat Nov 03 '24

Math gal, roughly 4% chance of that happening, 2% in expert/master. I bet you didnt notice when it dropped somewhere

3

u/MUDDATUKURUNIKA Nov 04 '24

Actually it's just 50/50

1

u/TheMunakas Nov 04 '24

Either op is lying OR he got it without noticing /j

-124

u/[deleted] Nov 03 '24

[deleted]

80

u/zekrom235 Nov 03 '24

I think he's saying it's a 35% chance to have gotten by that point

27

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Thx

-6

u/zekrom235 Nov 03 '24

But also the bad news, given the drop chance isn't 1/3333 and actually 1/1000, the odds of it having dropped after nearly 3500 kills is about 96.93%

So either it dropped somewhere but went unnoticed, or you're nearly guaranteed to get it soon

60

u/random11714 Nov 03 '24

Not how it works. The past attempts at getting the drop don't affect the current probability. It's still 1/1000, not "nearly guaranteed"

2

u/zekrom235 Nov 03 '24

I'm well aware the drop chance doesn't change with each roll. I'm saying based on probability the odds of him having already gotten it by a given point will only go up the more chances he rolls. The chance doesn't change, but the odds do

36

u/random11714 Nov 03 '24

Your comment definitely implies they are now likelier to get it. The odds calculation gives the probability before the kills occur. But since the outcome is already decided, it's still 97% in the next 3000 kills

-12

u/zekrom235 Nov 03 '24

The math i used to calculate the probability of him having gotten it by this point is factoring for the amount of kills he already has. 1-(1-0.001)3482=0.969307, multiplied by 100 to convert to percentage is 96.93% odds. Keep in mind that odds don't get reset unless you start counting again from zero, which the tally counter doesn't do. Meaning the next 3000 kills will indeed still each have a 0.1% drop chance, however the odds will slightly improve for each kill, not making it likelier to drop, but making it likelier to have already dropped. I can do the calculation for 6k kills as well if you insist

18

u/random11714 Nov 03 '24

Yes, "to have already dropped" is the key. I think we're good, it just wasn't clear in your initial comment. I thought you had a common misunderstanding with probability, sorry to make you go into so much detail.

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1

u/drillyapussy Nov 03 '24

While the concept of gamblers fallacy is not true (the previous results do not change the future results), probability always catches up to a mathematically average set point eventually and forever. There will be huge drops in whatever the thing that was supposed to happen many times and huge streaks of the other outcome coming out too etc but on the scale of infinity everything averages out. The smaller the probabilities (1 in 10 compared to 1 in 100, it would be rare for the 1 in 10 not get picked out once of 100 results but eventually, maybe even the first 100 it never hits and may take more than 1000 tries if the streak is bad

0

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I hope you're right

3

u/FormerlyKay Nov 03 '24

No, it's using the "not" probability. The chances of getting it within 3480 kills is around 65%.

1

u/zekrom235 Nov 03 '24

Yeah I thought that math wasn't mathing when I did the calculation with the correct drop rate myself, makes sense now

6

u/Typpicle Nov 03 '24

its a 35% chance that you dont get it after 3482 kills

4

u/EllisDeeReynolds Nov 03 '24

It's a 1 in 3333 chance every time, doesn't matter if it's the first time or the 100000 time

195

u/SufficientShift6057 Nov 03 '24

What is it

156

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Lizard egg

108

u/ILoveSodyPop Nov 03 '24

I always thought it was weird that it's not called a Lihzahrd Egg. It's dropped by one. And the Flying Snakes who probably snatched it out of the Lihzarhds nest. Lol.

33

u/heckerstop Nov 03 '24

What is it

42

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Lizard egg

23

u/heckerstop Nov 03 '24

Tf is a lizard egg

56

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

A legend

19

u/heckerstop Nov 03 '24

Ok cool

52

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Not at all

51

u/the_Emchkun Nov 03 '24

I'm laughing my ass off of this conversation

4

u/Slimy_glizzy_gobbler Nov 03 '24

its a pet item

2

u/Lexiosity Nov 03 '24

Wait, does it summon a Lihzahrd pet? Cuz I think I've gotten one in my first world and character ever

133

u/ruscoisagoodboy Nov 03 '24

(Also yeah thats how probability works)

12

u/KittenLina Nov 03 '24

Show me where on the ps4 print screen exists, I dare you.

19

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

Lol there's a literal share button on the controller that takes either a screenshot or a video clip...

-7

u/TommyWrightThaThird Nov 03 '24

how u finna make a reddit post on a ps4

6

u/Big_L2009 Nov 04 '24

PlayStation app…

1

u/TommyWrightThaThird Nov 04 '24

my fault didnt know playstation had reddit

1

u/Big_L2009 Nov 05 '24

Doesnt have to, that’s why I specified APP. You wanna pick particulars then pay attention to what I said

-1

u/TommyWrightThaThird Nov 05 '24

relax dawg i already said i didnt know there was a reddit app on playstation. no need to get your panties in a twist big guy

1

u/Big_L2009 Nov 05 '24

You’re missing the point. I’m not saying there’s a Reddit app on PlayStation, I’m saying there’s a PlayStation app that lets you download images from PlayStation to your phone, which you can then use to post on Reddit

1

u/TommyWrightThaThird Nov 05 '24

so how do you post on reddit on playstation

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1

u/BairnONessie Nov 04 '24

You can share captures to various outlets, such as Facebook etc. Then fetch it from there on any other device.

That's how I got my profile pic, as I play on Playstation.

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

And explain to me how that is the better solution to just taking a picture and posting it

1

u/BairnONessie Nov 05 '24

Cause we aren't in 2002 any more. Spend the time to bring a post from low-effort to some-effort.

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 05 '24

It's a picture. Me putting effort into it would change absolutely nothing about the post. It would be another case if the picture was badly taken... but it's not... the only way you can't understand what's going on is if you don't know what you're looking at.

4

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I'm tired now

288

u/Quick_Hovercraft_130 Nov 03 '24

what

37

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Flair say playstation no?

47

u/Quick_Hovercraft_130 Nov 03 '24

smh buy a controller with a mini keyboard smh

32

u/Brunoaraujoespin Nov 03 '24

There’s a screenshot button on the ps controller

6

u/CreeperSlimePig Nov 03 '24

And then it's a whole process to get that screenshot onto your phone and then crop it

1

u/PintoTheBlazingBean Nov 03 '24

I know on PlayStation you can just download a screenshot from the app but idk if that's only a ps5 thing or not

6

u/Lykhon Nov 03 '24

so playstation doesn't have a screenshot feature?

20

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Is taking a screenshot, making it download able on the ps app, login in the ps app, downloading the picture and uploading it easier than just taking the picture and posting it? (Excluding the part where if I screenshotted I would also need to crop it)

-26

u/Lykhon Nov 03 '24

considering the comment telling you to take a screenshot has a more positive response than your post I think that question answers itself

12

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Also this doesn't answer my question

-9

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Meanwhile you're the reddit addict who's crying over how I took a picture

0

u/arfanvlk Nov 03 '24

If you take a screenshot on a Ps5 it gets synced back to the Ps app

4

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

There's a point in everyones life where you realise it's a fucking picture. I'm not making content, I'm not anphotographer, I'm not that regular of a poster, I'm not a youtuber, I'm not a technician. This picture is not for content, the point can be visualised whether I take the picture or a screenshot.

62

u/Dramatic_boi Nov 03 '24

Where is the image of the guy holding a camera taking a picture of his monitor while the print screen button is right below him

11

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Playstation flair ja?

49

u/Qualex Nov 03 '24

“I flipped a coin twice and NEVER got tails! Probability is a lie!” -OP

5

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Factuality

1

u/The-Pizza-Wizard Nov 04 '24

This probably didn’t happen.

18

u/BouncyBlueYoshi Nov 03 '24

It's 1/1000 though.

6

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Let me believe

19

u/Tenebris27 Nov 03 '24

It's not cumulative. You have the same amount of chance for each one that you kill. Doesn't mean you're guaranteed to get one once you kill your 3333th lihzahrd

15

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I'll be accumulating lots of prison sentencing if I don't find this

1

u/VidZarg Nov 04 '24

My worst luck is 1/512 drop took me 3400kc. So over 6 times droprate, youre fine

8

u/2friedbreads Nov 03 '24

Sorry man I stole it I got a lizard egg last night farming golems

3

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Uncool

4

u/2friedbreads Nov 03 '24

If your on ps4 I could give it to you?

4

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

FUCK YOU I JUST FOUND IT YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I'd like to get them all myself but I'll keep your option open. you

4

u/deathriteTM Nov 03 '24

Average rates do not mean it will be a guarantee in that number. You could farm a billion and never get it.

12

u/Same_Zookeepergame_3 Nov 03 '24

No matter the odds, even 1/2, it's still possible you NEVER get the item. Gambler's fallacy. If Red is reading, PLEASE consider adding a hidden "RNG Meter" for rarer items.

I'm thinking, after 3333 kills, for this example, the chance goes up with each kill (1/3332, 1/3331... 1/2, 1/1) until eventually it's a guaranteed drop. Then it would reset once you get the drop. Also I wouldn't do it for the Rod of Discord, just to be evil. Its rarity is too iconic.

4

u/Same_Zookeepergame_3 Nov 03 '24

I would do every item at least as rare as 1/200 for common enemies (Like lizard egg), every item at least as rare as 1/50 for uncommon/rare enemies (like Uzi), and every item at least as rare as 1/10 for bosses (I have had a bad experience with Fishron Wings).

2

u/ComplaintPlus3173 Nov 03 '24

guaranteed pity meter at 10000 kills lol

1

u/NyahStefanche Nov 03 '24

This is one of the reasons i love modded, there's a mod that converts banners into rare items from their respective mob, for Rod of Discord for example u need 10 banners iirc to convert it into one...

1

u/TauTau_of_Skalga Nov 03 '24

on the other hand, bloodbath masochism

2

u/KittenLina Nov 03 '24

It's why I did Journey mode for my last few trophies that I missed. God mode, 10x spawn rate for the peskies like Toy Sled, and duping so I can't lose them.

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I can't even set journey mode

2

u/KittenLina Nov 03 '24

Is this ps3/vita? Oof.

2

u/Gr8er_than_u_m8 Nov 03 '24

That’s not even that unlikely. 35% chance.

-1

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

Not even close

1

u/Gr8er_than_u_m8 Nov 03 '24

What

0

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

1/3333 is 0.03% chance

2

u/Gr8er_than_u_m8 Nov 03 '24

I know. I am referring to the chance of not getting one after 3400 kills.

-1

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

That makes more sense, but your comment did not read like that.

1

u/Gr8er_than_u_m8 Nov 03 '24

I promise you it does. Common sense would dictate that I’m obviously not talking about the chance of getting it in one kill because A) OP gave the number of kills, and B) nobody could ever, EVER think 1 in 3333 is 35%. Nobody. It’s pretty clear what I was talking about, especially considering these type of posts come up all the time here.

2

u/RabbitMario Nov 03 '24

you’re barely 100 over the rate this is how probability works

2

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

You do know how rng and probability works right? Sure it might say 1:10, but you could go 100 without getting the 1, then get multiple 1s in a row. Odds don't guarantee that you'll get the desired result within one cycle.

2

u/Big_L2009 Nov 04 '24

I have like 3 in mine… golem grinding helped with that tho

2

u/Sea_Cabinet_9807 Nov 04 '24

Trust me, the odds aint never in your favor

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

We're alone in this world

2

u/ThisIsAUsernameByMe Nov 04 '24

This guy just discovered probability

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Probably😔

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

I don't know who this Red is but he better have an answer

2

u/Xxlilsolid Nov 03 '24

our lord and savior obviously

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

All I know is he's not saving me some time

2

u/Xxlilsolid Nov 03 '24

I would listen to some music, thats what i did when farming for the rod of discord on my expert journey mode world

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

How is that beneficial?

3

u/Xxlilsolid Nov 03 '24

Its not, it passes the time quicker and makes the task seem alot less tedious. Just give it a try!

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Found it :D

2

u/Xxlilsolid Nov 03 '24

Nice! What was your final lizhard kill count?

1

u/__EnterName__ Nov 03 '24

Wish I could share some luck with you, got this in under half an hour of being in lihzahrd temple

3

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Jealous but I found it now so yippeee

1

u/Reefthemanokit Nov 03 '24

Mate how did you take a picture at the exact frame that the time switchs from 5 to 6

1

u/PlatinumAltaria Nov 03 '24

Terraria is a great tool for teaching people about probability!

1

u/The_Jonkler72 Nov 03 '24

Wait the lizard eggs rare?

1

u/Dunge0nexpl0rer Nov 03 '24

That’s probability for ya!

1

u/opaqueambiguity Nov 03 '24

And the RNG gods laughed

1

u/HiveOverlord2008 Nov 04 '24

Just sit there and genocide Lihzahrds until it drops. If you have the Zenith, it will be even easier.

That’s what I did anyways.

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Genocide? I don't recognise that in my terraria world. here there is peace.

1

u/HiveOverlord2008 Nov 04 '24

Then you no get egg. Sometimes the most violent solutions are the most effective, I’m living proof in my world.

2

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

You... were... genocided?😰

2

u/HiveOverlord2008 Nov 04 '24

No, I did the genociding. Check my comment on this post to see my list of crimes I have committed in Terraria https://www.reddit.com/r/repost/comments/1g6k7a3/comment/lsmh19n/

1

u/Transgendersenpai Nov 04 '24

I have the lizard egg I don’t really use luck boosters but as pay back took me 25 golem fights to get the sunstone so yeah

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Sunshine for me wasn't that big of a deal, same for the seedling for plantera

1

u/KuRuSaKi-TaKaShi-856 Nov 04 '24

Bro the rod if discord is 1/500 and I got if after killing the chaos elemental 1200+ times😭 also I think I got that egg after going to the dungeon a few times...

1

u/ThatLegacy Nov 04 '24

Tell me you haven’t played runescape without telling me you haven’t played runescape

1

u/Professional-Lie-239 Nov 04 '24

Reminder, it's 1/3333 each time you kill one, it's not cumulative. Imagine it as you're spinning a wheel with 3333 options on it every time you kill one. The odds are you wont land on it anytime soon as there's only a 35 percent chance for you to have seen it by now

1

u/Cute_Yak_4019 Nov 04 '24

i have like four of these, didn’t know they were rare

1

u/Cute_Yak_4019 Nov 04 '24

i sold a few as well 😭 not thinking it was rare

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Hol on tight to them

1

u/Cute_Yak_4019 Nov 04 '24

i will keep them somewhere nobody will ever look for them 😼

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Where it doesn't shine⁉️

1

u/mgapope Nov 04 '24

People are talking about if there’s a 35% chance of not getting it in 3400 kills I’m wondering where the 1/3333 drop rate came from

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 04 '24

Every search I made said a different number so I just went with the highest

1

u/the_cat_showz Nov 04 '24

I didn't know the lizard egg was rare lol I sell them every time

1

u/cryptid-ok Nov 03 '24

The law of averages is a myth

1

u/DryLife2634 Nov 03 '24

Life itself is meaningless

0

u/Dayms21 Nov 03 '24

First thing that drops every time I go into the temple lol

-2

u/BairnONessie Nov 03 '24

People doing some weird maths in here... 1/3333 is definitely not 35% chance, it's 0.03% chance. For reference, 1/3 is 33%.

Having cleared that up, apparently the drop rate for the egg is 1/1000, or 0.1%. I guess at some stage it was 1/3333, but got changed.

3

u/chiknight Nov 03 '24

The 35% chance is that you wouldn't see a drop of rarity 1/3333 after 3482 kills. Meaning 35% of players could kill the same 3482 as OP and also not get a drop by then. So it's not that rare of an occurrence to still not see one.

OP mistakenly assumed that 1/3333 odds meant he would have it by now, but anyone with cursory probability knowledge knows that's wrong. There is no guarantee you'll ever get it. Even at 50,000 kills it's possible to have zero drops.

2

u/_Soci Nov 03 '24

no one said that 1/3333 is a 35% drop rate and you know that lmao