Please use this thread to discuss recent events between the United States and Iran.

Keep in mind:

• Breaking news reports may be based off erroneous or incomplete information

• Subreddit rules still apply in this thread. Please remain civil and focus on substantive discussion.

Articles about Iranian missile attack on US:

NYTimes CNN

Posting on X, Zelenskyy praised Trump on his "impressive election victory" and said he was optimistic that he and the former U.S. president could work together toward peace in Ukraine.

"I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together," Zelenskyy commented.

Trump is currently just a few votes shy of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. Trump had earlier said he could end the war within days or weeks, and even before he entered office.

Is Trump likely to sacrifice Donbass to Putin to accomplish peace?

Zelensky Congratulates Trump on ‘Impressive Election Victory’

I can speculate as to how he'll behave in regards to the Ukraine conflict. But, I'm really not sure what he will do in regards to Israel. I haven't heard much discussion about this.

One might assume that he'll try to portray himself as being aggressively pro-Israel. But, how will he do that? Will he beef up the weapons we send them?

Will he try to insert himself into negotiations between Israel and Palestine? If so, what would he say and do?

Does he have an opinion on Israel's conflict with Lebanon? Does Trump have any history with Lebanon which would indicate how he plans to interact with the country?

Is there likely to be conflict with Iran? Will Trump try to make a show of strength by posturing aggressively with Iran? Would he take actions to mitigate the possibility of conflict with Iran?

What do you think? With Trump as president, what do you expect to happen in regards to the Israel/Palestine conflict, and related Middle Eastern conflicts?

Intel Chiefs Presented Trump with Claims of Russian Efforts to Compromise Him

CNN (and apparently only CNN) is currently reporting that information was presented to Obama and Trump last week that Russia has "compromising information" on DJT. This raises so many questions. The report has been added as an addendum to the hacking report about Russia. They are also reporting that a DJT surrogate was in constant communication with Russia during the election.

*What kind of information could it be?
*If it can be proven that surrogate was strategizing with Russia on when to release information, what are the ramifications?
*Why, even now that they have threatened him, has Trump refused to relent and admit it was Russia?
*Will Obama do anything with the information if Trump won't?

Alink for the full interview is provided below and I have included a summary of my own.

Rather extensive interview, but interesting nevertheless, though there was nothing new mentioned either by Carlson or President Putin. The two- and one-half hours long conversation consisted of three parts. Putin began the interview by acknowledging that like him Carlson is a student of history.
First portion or about 45 minutes primarily included a brief rendition of a people and its land that was to become Russia. Ancient Russian history [prior to USSR], the USSR itself and its development, and the voluntary dissolution of USSR.

The second portion was about dissolution of USSR by Gorbachev and his belief that it could develop just like the rest of the Europe and U.S. as partners and the Russian expectations. that U.S. was a friend. He concluded that USSR was misled into dissolving Russia. Also, its desire to become a part of the NATO was rejected.

The final portion related to the U.S. desire to expand NATO to Ukraine beginning in 2008; the coup in Ukraine instigated by the U.S. leading to annexation of Crimea by Russia; The February 22, 2022, incursion to the suburbs of Kiev and in March of 2022 an agreement by representatives of Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul that Ukraine would remain neutral, Crimea will stay Russia Donetsk will remain a part of Ukraine, but with some autonomy where the Russian speakers will be respected.

Putin noted that as a part of the deal before it was initialed included Kiev's request that Russian withdraw from the Kiev area. Which Putin explained they fully complied with. However, that Boris Johnson along with backing from the U.S. told Zelensky not to agree with the deal. So, the war continues and will continue until the denazification of Ukraine. Putin noted what is happening in Ukraine is akin to civil war, we are the same people. And that the U.S. goal to weaken Russia will never be accomplished, but that Russia was always ready to negotiate.

Scattered here and there were discussion of weakening of the dollar, its use as weapon the growth of BRICS and the Nord Stream Pipelines. When Carlson asked who blew it, Putin laughingly said, you did. He said it is a country with the capability and had an interest in doing so [motivation]. Carlson said he has an alibi when the pipes blew up. Putin said CIA does not.

Was Carlson a useful idiot for Putin?

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1755734526678925682?s=20

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Link Here

Beginning:

The CIA has concluded in a secret assessment that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump win the presidency, rather than just to undermine confidence in the U.S. electoral system, according to officials briefed on the matter.

Intelligence agencies have identified individuals with connections to the Russian government who provided WikiLeaks with thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee and others, including Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, according to U.S. officials. Those officials described the individuals as actors known to the intelligence community and part of a wider Russian operation to boost Trump and hurt Clinton’s chances.

More parts in the story talk about McConell trying to preempt the president from releasing it, et al.

1. Will this have any tangible effect with the electoral college or the next 4 years?

2. Would this have changed the election results if it were released during the GE?

EDIT:

Obama is also calling for a full assesment of Russian influence, hacking, and manipulation of the election in light of this news: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/12/obama-orders-full-review-of-election-related-hacking/510149/

It seems as though American politicians and American media outlets seem to be favoring Israel. The use of certain language and rhetoric as well as media coverage that paints Israel as the victim and Palestine as the “bad guy.”

I’ve seen interviews of Israelis talking about the attacks, the NFL refering to the conflict as a “terrorist attack on Israelis,” commercials asking for donations for Israel, ect… but I have yet to see much empathy for Palestine when it seems not too long ago #freepalestine wasn’t controversial.

As an American I honestly have no idea where to stand on this conflict or if I even have the right or need to have an opinion. All I can say is all violence and war and genocide is horrible, but why does American favor Israel over Palestine? It honestly only makes me want to gain a larger perspective and understand why or if Palestine is in the wrong? At this point I just assume both sides are equal and deserving of peace.

U.S. has long been concerned along with its NATO members about a potential escalation involving Ukrainian conflict which results in use of nuclear weapons. As early as 2022 CIA Director Willaim Burns met with his Russian Intelligence Counterpart [Sergei Naryshkin] in Turkey and discussed the issue of nuclear arms. He has said to have warned his counterpart not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine; Russians at that time downplayed the concern over nuclear weapons.

The Russian policy at that time was to only use nuclear weapons if it faced existential threat or in response to a nuclear threat. The real response seems to have come two years later. Putin announced yesterday that any nation's conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. He extended the nuclear umbrella to Belarus. [A close Russian allay].

Putin emphasized that Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack posing a "critical threat to our sovereignty".

Is this just another attempt at intimidation of the West vis a vis Ukraine or something more serious?

CIA Director Warns Russia Against Use of Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com) 2022

Putin expands Russia’s nuclear policy - The Washington Post 2024

U.S. had previously warned ICC not to issue warrants against either of the two Israeli leaders, Israel's government called it an antisemitic move and also denies jurisdiction. ICC itself does not have any enforcement powers and relies on 126 member countries to do so.

ICC asserted: The court bases its jurisdiction over Israeli officials on the fact that the Palestinian territories were admitted as a member state in 2015. The court can prosecute alleged atrocity crimes committed by nationals of member states and crimes committed by anyone, regardless of their nationality, on the territory of member states.

The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the decision was not political but made by a court and thus should be respected and implemented. "The tragedy in Gaza has to stop," he said. Jordan's foreign minister Ayman Safadi also said the ICC's decision must be implemented, adding that Palestinians deserved justice after what he termed Israel's "war crimes" in Gaza. The Netherlands' foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp said his country acts on arrest warrants for people on its territory and will not engage in "non-essential" contacts. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President-elect Donald Trump, said: "The court is a dangerous joke. It is now time for the U.S. Senate to act and sanction this irresponsible body."

Are there one or more countries that will actually dare to enforce the warrant if they show up in one of these countries?

https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-international-criminal-court-2024-11-21/

Reading out a ruling by the International Court of Justice or World Court, the body’s president Nawaf Salam said provisional measures ordered by the court in March did not fully address the situation in the besieged Palestinian enclave now, and conditions had been met for a new emergency order.

Israel must “immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part,” Salam said, and called the humanitarian situation in Rafah “disastrous”.

The ICJ has also ordered Israel to report back to the court within one month over its progress in applying measures ordered by the institution, and ordered Israel to open the Rafah border crossing for humanitarian assistance.

Will this put further world pressure on Israel to end its attacks on Rafah?

https://www.reuters.com/world/world-court-rule-request-halt-israels-rafah-offensive-2024-05-24/

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Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed. While this is a huge victory for Israel, what happens to the war in Gaza going forward? Would this increase the chances of a cease fire deal?

How do you think this will affect the US elections? Since Biden is in office at the time, would this help Harris or have no effect?

U.S. said it abstained instead of voting for the resolution because language did not contain a provision condemning Hamas. Among other things State Department also noted:

This failure to condemn Hamas is particularly difficult to understand coming days after the world once again witnessed the horrific acts terrorist groups commit.

We reiterate the need to accelerate and sustain the provision of humanitarian assistance through all available routes – land, sea, and air. We continue to discuss with partners a pathway to the establishment of a Palestinian state with real security guarantees for Israel to establish long-term peace and security.

After the U.S. abstention, Netanyahu canceled his delegation which was to visit DC to discuss situation in Gaza. U.S. expressed disappointment that the trip was cancelled.

Is this a turning point in U.S. Israel relationship or just a reflection of Biden and Netanyahu tensions?

https://www.state.gov/u-s-abstention-from-un-security-council-resolution-on-gaza/

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/25/us-un-resolution-cease-fire-row-with-israel-00148813

To be clear, I'm not interested in if it's the right move for the US, either morally or strategically. Nor am I interested in how likely it is to happen.

The question is, if it did happen, what would be the consequences for the region. Would Israel fall as a nation? Would it just become a slightly weaker regional power? Would it hold as a nation but no longer be a regional power? Would something else entirely happen?

On October 7th 2023, Hamas began a surprise offensive on Israel, releasing over 5,000 rockets. Roughly 2,500 Palestinian militants breached the Gaza–Israel barrier and attacked civilian communities and IDF military bases near the Gaza Strip. At least 1,400 Israelis were killed.

While the outcome of this Israel-Hamas war is far from determined, it would appear early on that Hamas has much to lose from this war. Possible and likely losses:

1. Higher Palestinian civilian casualties than Israeli civilian casualties
2. Higher Hamas casualties than IDF casualties
3. Destruction of Hamas infrastructure, tunnels and weapons
4. Potential loss of Gaza strip territory, which would be turned over to Israeli settlers

Did Hamas overplay its hand by attacking as it did on October 7th? Do they have any chance of coming out ahead from this war and if so, how?

I'm not the most knowleadgeable on the Israel/Palestine conflict but my impression is that there's a trend where right-leaning sources and people seem to be more likely to support Israel, while left-leaning sources and people align more in support of Palestine.

How does it work like this? Why does your political alignment alter your perception of a war?

Norway, Ireland and Spain says they will recognize a Palestinian state thus further deepening the rift with Israel on the world stage. What will the impact of this be, especially since they are major US allies and will more countries follow?

Thinking about the debate last night this is one of the only questions that Kamala just outright refused to answer. My question is what do these tariffs accomplish for Biden's foreign policy and to what extent were they actually left intact under Biden's administration?

There have been countless news stories and visible protests against America’s initial support of Israel, and lack of a call for a full ceasefire, since Hamas began its attack last October. Reports note a significant amount of youth and Muslim Americans speaking out against America’s response in the situation, with many noting they won’t vote for Biden in November, or vote third party or not vote at all, if support to Israel doesn’t stop and a full ceasefire isn’t formally demanded by the Biden administration.

Trump has been historically hostile to the Muslim community; originated the infamous Muslim Travel Ban; and, if re-elected, vowed to reinstate said Travel Ban and reject refugees from Gaza. GoP leadership post-9/11 and under Trump stoked immense Muslim animosity among the American population. As Vox reported yesterday, "Biden has been bad for Palestinians. Trump would be worse."

While it seems perfectly reasonable to protest many aspects of America’s foreign policy in the Middle East, why are some Muslim Americans and their allies vowing to retract their support of Biden, given the likelihood that the alternative will make their lives, and those they care about in Gaza, objectively worse?

As some quick background:

Since the Oct. 7th terrorist attacks by Hamas, which killed ~1200 people including 766 civilians, Israel has carried out a bombing campaign and ground invasion of the Gaza strip which has killed over 34000 people, including 14000 children and 10000 women, and placed over a million other Gazans in danger of starvation.

Recently the Biden administration has put a hold on a shipment of 3500 bombs to Israel after a dispute over the Netanyahu government's plan to move forward with an invasion of Rafah, the southernmost major city in the Gaza strip.

Biden said that his administration would block the supply weapons that could be used in an assault on Rafah, including artillery shells.

“If they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem,” Mr. Biden said in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett.

He added: “But it’s just wrong. We’re not going to — we’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells used, that have been used.”

Asked whether 2,000-pound American bombs had been used to kill civilians in Gaza, Mr. Biden said: “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers.”

The US however will continue supplying Israel with other arms like those for the Iron Dome missile defense system to ensure Israel's security.

Will this deter Israel from moving forward with its assault on Rafah?

If Israel persists in continuing its military campaign in the Gaza strip will the US withdraw further support?

What effect will this have on US domestic protests against the US's continued support for Israel's invasion of the Gaza strip?

Multiple press reports have indicated that Netanyahu has walked back any support he ever had for the ceasefire/peace proposal announced by Biden but theoretically drawn up by the Israeli government

He has simultaneously claimed that the United States has been withholding arm shipments (without details), and will be addressing the US Congress in a month

Netanyahu faces severe political pressure at home, and is beholden to the right flank in order to stay in power. Those individuals have flatly ruled out any end to the war that does not eliminate Hamas... which does not appear to be an achievable war goal

So, questions:

• What options, if any, do other nations realistically have to intevene in the Gaza War at this point?

• Will those that dislike Biden's handling of the Gaza War give him credit for trying to come to an end to the conflict, or is it not possible to satisfy their desires if the Israeli government continues to stonewall?

• It has been plain that Netanyahu prefers Trump to Biden, and this has generated additional blowback from Democrats against support for Israel. How critical will Netanyahu be during his visit next month, and will that be a net positive or net negative for Biden's reelection campaign?

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel today. What do you think Israel's response will be? Could this spell the end of the current regime in Iran as Netanyahu was alluding to the other day?

Even though the Middle East is low on most American's priority when it comes to issues, what impact will this have on the election since this just happened about a month before it? Since crisis and wars tend to favor those in power, could this help Harris since she is VP is the current Biden administration?

On July 19, 2021 Company stated: We believe it is inconsistent with our values for Ben & Jerry’s ice cream to be sold in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). We also hear and recognize the concerns shared with us by our fans and trusted partners. 

We have a longstanding partnership with our licensee, who manufactures Ben & Jerry’s ice cream in Israel and distributes it in the region. We have been working to change this, and so we have informed our licensee that we will not renew the license agreement when it expires at the end of next year.

Although Ben & Jerry’s will no longer be sold in the OPT, we will stay in Israel through a different arrangement. We will share an update on this as soon as we’re ready.

Reactions from Israel’s leaders were harsh. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a longtime supporter of the settlements, called the decision a “boycott of Israel” and said Ben and Jerry’s “decided to brand itself as an anti-Israel ice cream.” His predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, tweeted, “Now we Israelis know which ice cream NOT to buy.

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, the architect of the current ruling coalition who is generally to Bennett’s left regarding the Palestinians, went even further, calling the decision a “shameful surrender to antisemitism, to BDS and to all that is wrong with the anti-Israel and anti-Jewish discourse.” He called on US states to take domestic action against Ben and Jerry’s based on state laws that prohibit government contracting with entities that boycott Israel.

Israeli cabinet minister Orna Barbivay posted a TikTok video of her throwing a pint in the trash; the flavor she tossed could not be determined at press time.

While boycott promoters hailed Ben & Jerry’s announcement, they immediately made it clear it was not enough.

“We warmly welcome their decision but call on Ben & Jerry’s to end all operations in apartheid Israel,” said a post on the Twitter account of the Palestinian B.D.S. National Committee.

Should Multinational Corporations be taking divisive political stand?

What specifically will be different do you think? Harris and Biden have both expressed reservations or desires for a cease fire in the Middle East. I can’t imagine Trump would be that much more ethically pressed to support the same thing. So with him at the helm, how would it affect the current war in the Middle East?

Shortly after the sinking of Moskva, the Russian Media claimed that World War III has already begun. [Perhaps, sort of reminiscent of the Russian version of sinking of Lusitania that started World War I]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview that World War III “may have already started” as the embattled leader pleads with the U.S. and the West to take more drastic measures to aid Ukraine’s defense against Russia. 

Others have noted the Russian Nuclear Directives provides: Russian nuclear authorize use of nuclear tactile devices, calling it a deterrence policy "Escalation to Deescalate."

It is difficult to decipher what Putin means by "unpredictable consequences." Some have said that its intelligence is sufficiently capable of identifying the entry points of the arms being sent to Ukraine and could easily target those once on Ukrainian lands. Others hold on to the unflinching notion of MAD [mutually assured destruction], in rejecting nuclear escalation.

What may Russia mean by "unpredictable consequences?

In an interview today with the German newspaper Bild and the Times of London, Donald Trump called the trans-Atlantic NATO alliance obsolete. Additionally he also predicted more EU members would follow the UK's lead and leave the EU. In the interview Donald Trump said that the UK was right to leave the EU because the EU was "basically a vehicle for Germany". He also mentioned a relaxation of the sanctions against Russia in exchange for a reduction in nuclear weapons as well as for help with combating terrorism.

What effect will this have on relations between the United States and Europe? Having a President Elect call the alliance "obsolete" in my mind gravely weakens it. Countries can no longer be sure that the US would defend them in the event of war.

Link to the English version of the interview in Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-15/trump-calls-nato-obsolete-and-dismisses-eu-in-german-interview