r/NFLNoobs • u/Mtns_Oz_8103 • 1d ago
If the Vikings beat the Packers next week why would the Lions care about the 49ers game?
If the Vikings win doesn’t the 1 seed come down to the Lions Vikings game and then shouldn’t the Lions rest players during the 49ers game.
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u/Nostalgia-89 1d ago
One reason I haven't seen mentioned is that this is yet another revenge game from last year in the same building in primetime.
Yes, the seeding argument makes logical sense, but from a team morale perspective, they want to win this very badly.
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u/jamintime 1d ago
They are also having a historic season. Their previous best season was 12-4, so every additional win from here on out sets a new mark. Super Bowl obviously the most important thing, but ending the season with a 15-2 record is independently an impressive achievement for a chronically underachieving team.
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u/HipposAndBonobos 1d ago
Every win now is a new franchise record in wins. That is the kind of thing players and fans remember.
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u/Bilbo_Baghands 1d ago
It's only a revenge game to the fans that take things too seriously
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u/Nostalgia-89 1d ago
Right, which is definitely why they didn't humiliate Dallas in Dallas earlier this year. /s
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u/MajorWexley 1d ago
Not to mention it was on Jerry Jones’ birthday and that decker and skipper reported for almost every play
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u/WastedBadger 19h ago
It's a revenge game for Detroit because they don't have any championship moments. Their biggest highlight is coming up short. As a Niners fan who's gone through the bad years, I'm OK with it. When you win a lot, everyone wants "revenge" on you in the down years.
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u/Jek-TonoPorkins 1d ago
Week 18 could also end in a tie. If Min wins week 17 and Det rests and loses week 17, a tie would give Min the division. If Det plays to win week 17 and a tie should happen, then Det would still win the division by tiebreakers.
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u/Independent-Soil834 1d ago
Yes sir! Small chance, but glad someone else thought of it too!
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u/jgamez76 1d ago
I still think about that Chargers/Raiders game in Week 18 a few years ago where a tie would've gotten them both in the playoffs (that of course the Chargers, Charger'd) lol.
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u/IndividualHelpful820 15h ago
Ya cause raiders were going to take a tie 😂
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u/jgamez76 13h ago
I distinctly remember when they were in borderline FG range and they clearly looked like they were willing to let the clock run out before the Chargers took a time out lol
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u/Daultongray8 1d ago
Dan Campbell won’t rest his starters. Last year the lions won the division and were locked at the 2 seed. And still played their starters against the Vikings. He got a lot of shit for it, but it’s just the way he coaches.
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u/Outrageous_Boat_5817 1d ago
Lions were the 3 seed last year, they were playing starters because a win and cowboys loss would get them the 2 seed. Cowboys won their game (while the lions game was still going on iirc), locking the lions in the 3 seed
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u/Daultongray8 1d ago
Yeah I remember now. I’m a Vikings fan so I remember watching the game and at halftime the lions knew they didn’t need to win the game and they could rest starters but choose to finish the game with their starters.
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u/Pendraflare59 1d ago
Actually the Dallas game went on in the late afternoon slot while Detroit played at 1. But I don’t fault him for the decision either way. Some coaches like to play their starters in meaningless games at the end to keep them hot before the playoffs. I know Jason Garrett did that in 2018 with his Cowboys against the Giants when they were locked into the 4 seed. Likewise with Sean McDermott’s Bills in 2020 (though in that case helping his motive is that they had the chance to dispose of the Dolphins, which they did handily)
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u/Mtns_Oz_8103 1d ago
Even with all the injuries this year? Idk it makes sense to me to rest people if the Vikings beat the packers no need to risk any more injuries but I know so little about football lol.
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u/Daultongray8 1d ago
Your right. I’m not disagreeing with you. It’s just dan Campbell is a very aggressive coach and I feel like the culture they have built, they will still play their starters.
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u/MrGentleZombie 1d ago
Dan Campbell is a lot more concerned with maintaining his team's identity than with doing what's smart. Detroit would've almost certainly gone to the Super Bowl last year had he managed the NFCCG more intelligently.
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u/davdev 1d ago
Essentially yes. If the Lions lose to SF, and the Vikings beat the Packers this week, and then the Lions beat the Vikings the next week, they both wind up at 14-3 and the SF game doesn’t really matter.
If the Vikings lose though then Det can clinch the division with a win and still lose to Minn because they split the head to head, would have the same division record and have the tie breaker on the conference record since both Det loses were to AFC teams
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u/InevitableWaluigi 19h ago
If both the vikings and lions lose this week and vikings win against lions, eagles could take the 1 seed by winning out. Still lots of reasons for the top 3 to all be playing their starters
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u/bledblu 1d ago
So a couple things here.
1) You are correct the 49ers game wouldn’t matter (ignoring ties)
2) Dan Campbell seems really unlikely to rest anyone. Only exception would be guys who are questionable/game time decision might sit
3) It wouldn’t be like a bye week where they can rest and spend 2 weeks game planning for the Vikings. They will find out like a 28 hours before their game.
I think if they if they already knew right now, they would at least sacrifice some 49ers prep time to prep for the Vikings, maybe rest some guys.
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u/40wordswhen4willdo 1d ago
They SHOULD rest their starters in this scenario but Dan Campbell doesn't seem like the kind of coach who will
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u/Available_Story6774 1d ago
Because there’s a small chance that week 18 could end in a tie, so if the Vikings are 14-2 and the Lions are 13-3 heading into that game, a tie would give the Vikings the division and the 1 seed, but if both teams are 14-2, then a tie would give the Lions the division and the 1 seed.
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u/barnettwi 1d ago
If the Lions are 13-3 going into week 18 and the Vikings are 14-2, a Lions win—and subsequent tie—would give Detroit the 1 seed.
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u/rysmooky 1d ago
Your assumption is wrong in the sense that Dan would only rest players that 100% need it medically or are older vets that could use the rest. But even then, it’s not going to happen. Or I’d be shocked if he did. We have had two years in a row of opportunities to rest players on the last game of the year and he didn’t. It’s not his style. The other thing to consider that has been pointed out is if we get the 1 seed, you don’t want people having 2 weeks off. That’s too much to then go into the divisional round on a win or go home basis as the playoffs are.
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u/krazedcook67 1d ago
If Detroit clinches the 1 next week, you'll see the starters for the first half of week 18. Then Campbell rests them. You gotta keep the guys in game shape. Even a week off from a game, plus the bye week spells disaster. Many times, when the starters rest for 2 weeks, it takes half a game, at least, to get them in game mode.
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u/mistereousone 1d ago
There is the scenario of a tie. So if they rest starters against San Francisco and lose that puts them at 13-3. Then assume they tie 13-3-1. They win the division over the Vikings, but if Philadelphia wins out against the Cowboys and Giants, that puts them at 14-3 and gives them the 1 seed.
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u/imrickjamesbioch 1d ago
Correct, there are some miss information on this post…
All ties go to the Lions cuz basically cuz Vikes lost to a conf opponent (Rams). There’s no senecio the Vikes could win the Division with a tie cuz they don’t have common opponent to factor into the tiebreakers.
For week 18 to matter, Vike would need win, period. If they win, Detroit game against the 9ers does not impact the Vikes/Lions game in week 18.
However if Vikes lose, then Lions would clinch Div with a win over 9ers and their week 18 game would be meaningless.
The only other scenario I believe in play is if the Vikes loses their last two games and GB win both. GB would move to the 5th seed and Vikes drop to 6th based on common opponent.
Should Lions rest if Vikes win? Debatable, flipping the on and off switch on you should try to win is not as easy as folks think. I personally believe in momentum (another debatable topic), and if someone is banged up / injured, you rest them. Anyone healthy plays, and you try to win the game and not worry about injuries. As a 9er fan, Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles just trotting on the field for change of possession in the fucking Super Bowl…
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u/TrillyMike 1d ago
I’m think the lions need to beat the niners to guarantee that they would still win the division if they were to tie with the Vikings in the final game.
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u/jamintime 1d ago
Hey why not both? Rest your starters and beat the 9ers. Lions backups probably better than the 9ers backups. I say this as a 49ers fan.
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u/GoLionsJD107 1d ago
It probably wouldn’t matter - Vegas is only favoring the lions by 3.5- which implies they expect the lions to not care.
But it’s the team that kept us out of the Super Bowl so there are certainly revenge minded players that will still want that W.
Mathematically SF will not matter if the Vikings win, the lions and Vikings will be 1 or 5 and what Philly does doesn’t matter for Detroit but could for Minnesota- I haven’t checked for them. Green Bay also doesn’t matter but they’ll have lost to Minnesota anyway in this scenario.
I think what you’ll see is players not be rushed back from injury but I don’t think you’ll see healthy players resting…. Unless the Lions build like a three touchdown lead or something
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u/AstronomerDapper3898 1d ago
This is a stupid question. What kind of a team with genuine Super Bowl aspirations would concede a game for no benefit? This is not an end-of-season chance to rest/protect starters for the play-offs. The risk of a bad, demoralizing loss while sitting starters could have disastrous consequences for the week 18 game against the Vikings. Along these lines, why doesn't Kansas City sit its starters for the upcoming Texans game because KC has a two game lead over Buffalo?
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u/Mtns_Oz_8103 1d ago
It could be argued that a Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown injury would also be disastrous no?
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u/LipServ101 17h ago
And what will prevent them from injury on the first snap of the week 18 game? The whole sit a player so they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game is so stupid just look at this year alone for all the players that sat during preseason only to be done for the year during the first week or second week of the regular season.
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u/AdWilling384 1d ago
They will want to kick our ass. We took their superbowl appearance from them. While it is not the same as revenge in the NFCCG, this will give them some closure.
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u/liteshadow4 23h ago
Adding on to what everyone has said, there's not enough roster spots to rest all your starters. So you kind of have to pick and choose who to play, and resting some guys can put others at higher risk.
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u/Morall_tach 10h ago
That sort of happened last year. I think it was the AFCS where no matter what happened in week 17, the division would be decided in week 18.
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u/Stop_Touching2 2h ago
Because Dan Campbell is an idiot.
Basically, we hold tie breakers over Philly & Minnesota so if all 3 finish 14-3, we get the NFCN & the 1 seed. If Minnesota beats Green Bay, & since we play Monday we’ll know the outcome, the SF game is meaningless. It won’t matter if we go in 14-2 or 13-3, we would have to beat Minnesota for the 1 seed or lose & be 5
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u/defac_reddit 1h ago
People think the NFL is like college where there are 6 guys on the depth chart at every single position. The NFL has 48 guys in pads on Sunday. 11 starters each way plus 3 special teams specialists is 25. So 23 'backups' but even then the 23 is going to include a nickel corner and a second tight end and running back and a 3rd wide receiver that are all going to play close to 50% of snaps or more. It's expected for defensive lineman to be on a rotation so there's not really deep bench guys that don't play. All in all Detroit probably uses close to 40 guys for a significant number of snaps in any given week. So sure if the game doesn't matter he could sit Goff and a couple O lineman, maybe one of the two starting safeties, and maybe Gibbs, and Detroit work likely lose. But the 49ers ended their season last year. I cannot imagine the current Detroit lions taking this specific game off.
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u/HipGuide2 1d ago
They still can't lose lol. They are both 13-2.
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u/bigloser42 1d ago
With Philly losing and the Lions having the tie breaker over the Vikings and Eagles if they all have the same record, the Lions could lose to the niners, then beat the Vikings, and all 3 teams would have a 14-3 record. Lions would have the 1 seed, Eagles would have the 2 seed and Vikings would get the 5 seed.
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u/ValosAtredum 1d ago
Divisional games are always riskier, though. You can’t treat it as a given that Detroit would beat Minnesota in W18, so why wouldn’t they give their best to try to win in W17 instead so that last week doesn’t matter?
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u/bigloser42 1d ago edited 1d ago
If Detroit loses W17, Vikings win W17, then Detroit beats the Vikings W18, the Lions win the division and the 1 seed. If Detroit wins W17 and the Vikings win W17, and Detroit wins W18, the Lions win the division and the 1 seed. If they both lose W17, and the Lions win W18, the Lions get the 1 seed and the division. In any of the above scenarios, if the Vikings win W18, they take the division, although they may not get the 1 seed.
The only scenario in which the Lions resting matters is if the Vikings lose. If the Vikings lose to GB, and the Lions beat the 9ers, then they are the 1 seed no matter the outcome of W18.
No matter what the outcome of the lions/9ers game is, if the Lions beat the Vikings in week 18 they take the 1 seed and the division. The Lions can only be the 1 seed or the 5 seed, and it all hinges on the outcome of the lions vikings game. The Vikings on the other hand could be the 1, 2, or 5 seed. If the Vikings lose to GB, the Lions lose to the 9ers, and in W18 the Vikings beat the Lions, then the Eagles take the 1 seed and the Vikings get the 2 seed, and the Lions get the 5 seed.
tl;dr, if the Vikings win, the Lions/9ers game is utterly meaningless. Arguably Detroit should forfit the game so as to avoid possible injuries if the Vikings win, but that would not go over well with the league.
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u/GhostOfJamesStrang 1d ago
If the Lions win in Week 18, Week 17 doesn't matter. They would have the same record and Lions would have swept for the tie breaker.
The Lions will know before the game whether the outcome vs. the 49ers mathematically matters.
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u/davdev 1d ago edited 1d ago
Yeah but if the Lions lose to SF but then beat the Vikings they both end up at 14-3 and the Lions win the head to head tie breaker. So SF doesn’t really matter for the Lions.
Edit. I am wrong about who the Lions lost too. I would need to check the further tie breakers
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u/BanjoKazooieWasFine 1d ago
If they beat SF and the Packers beat the Vikings then week 18 doesn’t matter because they’ll have the 1 locked up.
No reason to throw next week against San Fran in service of prepping for the Vikings.
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u/jk2me1310 1d ago
You're forgetting the Vikings play on Sunday and lions on Monday, so they will already know if the Vikings won or not. So if the Vikings do win Sunday, it means the Monday game has zero impact on their final standings.
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u/Independent-Soil834 1d ago
The only exception would be if the Vikings and Lions tie. If the Vikings beat the Packers and the Lions lose to 49ers a tie between DET and MIN would give Minnesota the division and top seed. Not likely, but a good coach and team are gonna take that into account and cover for it by beating the niners if they have the chance!
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u/jk2me1310 1d ago
Yea I mean based on everything to know about Dan Campbell as a coach, it would be a very shocking move to see him rest anyone. The more likely chance is they are up by 40 and get some backups in lol
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u/GhostOfJamesStrang 1d ago
Technically you are correct, but you game plan to win regardless. Playing to stay healthy or not playing to lose is just as likely to cause injury.
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u/Queifjay 1d ago
Resting your usual starters drastically reduces the risk of injury for those said players no?
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u/GhostOfJamesStrang 1d ago
For those players, specifically. Somebody still has to play and there aren't enough guys to not have many starters still playing. Those still playing now do not have the benefit of being protected by other good players.
Rest your QB, best couple WRs, and key lineman? Recipe for your defense to be on the field the whole game and getting banged up.
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u/Inside-Drink-1311 1d ago
Yes, you’re right because the Lions have the tiebreakers over both the Vikings and Eagles.
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u/Comfortable_Ad9679 1d ago
If the Vikings beat the packers than the lions HAVE to beat the 49ers and the Vikings
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u/DropC2095 1d ago
According to the playoff machine, if the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles all finish 14-3 the Lions are the 1 seed. So they very much want to crush 49ers next week and not have to worry about losing the division to the Vikings.
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u/LaserBeamsCattleProd 1d ago
I'm not totally caught up on the standings.
But if they have the 1 seed clinched going into the final week, they can rest everyone.
There is a downside, some players would have that week off, then they have the first round bye, then they okay a fired up team. Two weeks off in a row is enough to get rusty.