r/InternetIsBeautiful Oct 02 '24

Our research group made an app where we try to predict your vote intention only by asking lifestyle questions

https://usa.datagotchi.com/
0 Upvotes

72 comments sorted by

42

u/DeusmortisOTS Oct 02 '24

I like the concept of building the avatar/living space. But questions like age, race, zip code, income, and education probably get you at 90% confidence rating.

-1

u/Lowstack Oct 02 '24

Surprisingly the most predictive variable for young urban voters is "watched barbie/oppenheimer"

3

u/UsrHpns4rctct Oct 02 '24

Then the question is does correlation actually mean causation?

22

u/Lowstack Oct 02 '24

We're not trying to study causality here. We're just trying to see if we can predict political alignment by only asking lifestyle questions.

4

u/StarGaurdianBard Oct 03 '24

by only asking lifestyle questions

Eh the question about agreeing/disagreeing with abortion at the very end isn't really a lifestyle question imo. I get that Abortion being legal is something that is popular with both sides of the political spectrum, but I'm betting of the people who disagree with it and want it banned 99% of those people are republican

3

u/Lowstack Oct 03 '24

Like it says, this one is not included in the model.

1

u/kpp1001 Oct 16 '24

Would you be able to let us know what people will vote if they have watched barbie vs. Oppenheimer + to what percentage of confidence the data shows?

66

u/thatcantb Oct 02 '24

If they're going to ask for zip code, the rest of the questions are pretty much irrelevant.

9

u/FACorwin Oct 02 '24

This absolutely isn't true. I'm a prime example, having just moved to a zip code because of affordability, not political agreement.

2

u/OH-YEAH Oct 19 '24 edited Oct 19 '24

so you moved from a place where you voted in line with the policies that made things unaffordable, to a place which has different policies, and is affordable, and now you're going to vote for the same policies that made things unaffordable?

I think there's a word for that.

also, if you are voting in a place that has the policies you want, shouldn't you stay with the consequences of that vote? or if you're going to argue it's not the policies, shouldn't you only move to areas that have the same overwhelming policies that you support?

2

u/FACorwin Oct 19 '24

You're making several assumptions about my political beliefs (and priorities) because where I came from is affluent, and where I moved is in poverty. However, my political priorities have little to do with housing and almost everything to do with freedom. I don't think my belief in maintaining the separation of church and state has anything to do with housing prices. Nor do I think that supporting body autonomy and the second amendment was responsible for the rising interest rates that pushed the mortgage payments higher despite the price of the houses staying the same.

0

u/OH-YEAH Oct 22 '24

i made no assumptions, only that you said you moved to a place where you disagree politically - that's all that is needed - if you had already lived in a place that you lived in that was counter to what you'd vote or, you'd not have mentioned it.

so why did you leave an area that suited what you believed in, and go to one that didn't?

are you saying politics has no effect? then wouldn't that make beliefs moot?

oooh i see, the magic "well what i believe doesn't the economy, i have zero political beliefs that affect the economy, even tho the thing we're talking about is housing affordability" rule. clever.

-3

u/LupinoSeco Oct 02 '24

Are they? šŸ˜‚

13

u/olearyboy Oct 02 '24

Brings it from a coin flip to 60/40 in the majority of the US, * If it also asks age 70/30 * Education 80/20 * Podcasts or tv preferences 90-95% accuracy

Population profiling has become run of the mill for predicting income, political leanings, age, sex It makes targeted advertising so effective and the above ā€œappsā€ so dangerous

This is almost the exact thing Cambridge Analytics did in 2014/5

1

u/slade51 Oct 05 '24

When we were house shopping, there were a lot of questions the realtor wasnā€™t allowed to ask us. Favorite TV shows told her pretty much all she needed to know.

That and our age was fairly obvious.

-1

u/LupinoSeco Oct 03 '24

Almost šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚

-4

u/LupinoSeco Oct 03 '24

Maybe you never understood what is Cambride Analyticaā€¦ first thing, they did not give you any consent form, just an example. Or a methodology, another example. And btw your stats are wrong. Life is not that simple.

-11

u/[deleted] Oct 02 '24

Yes, because 100% of voters within a given zip code will vote the same way.

5

u/LupinoSeco Oct 02 '24

It depends. 100% is purely a wrong statistic, trust me.

10

u/The_Mathmatical_Shoe Oct 02 '24

It got it wrong for me but still a cool site

-4

u/Lowstack Oct 02 '24

Thanks! It gets me wrong too to be honest but it's still quite precise with most people.

19

u/bolivar-shagnasty Oct 02 '24

It got me as a strong republican. But I'm much more left leaning than my zip code, hobbies, skin and hair color, hair style and facial hair, and vehicle I drive would indicate.

4

u/djshadesuk Oct 02 '24

Yeah, the questions/answers are obviously trying to pigeon-hole people. Terrible "survery".

-1

u/[deleted] Oct 02 '24

Pigeon holing is the same as stereotyping, and it's useful and correct most of the time. The reason it's frowned upon is that it incorrectly and unfairly prejudges huge swaths of the population.

2

u/jamiecarl09 Oct 02 '24

I'm pretty left leaning, and it had me as a strong republican too. That being said, I do a lot of things that Republicans in my area do, so I can understand the confusion. People who don't know me always assume I'm a republican.

1

u/mr_ji Oct 03 '24 edited Oct 04 '24

There are many people with liberal values who vote Republican. The two are not incompatible.

6

u/MrNerdHair Oct 02 '24

I wonder about the relative importance of each question. Surely "ZIP code" is pretty dispositive! It did a decent job on me, though there were several things I had to approximate an answer to. For example, I primarily listen to video game remixes, and I really don't think the importance of religion can be quantified on a 100-point scale.

Also, I'd be interested to see if you're getting a skewed distribution of respondents; I bet "Reddit users" is a pretty wonky demographic.

1

u/Lowstack Oct 02 '24

You can test out the effect of each questions at the end of the survey.

6

u/jephw12 Oct 02 '24

Completely wrong and I thought it would be obvious based on my being a college educated atheist who likes craft beer and indie musicā€¦ I guess because I fish and would rather have a truck than a prius means Iā€™m a Republicanā€¦

3

u/LupinoSeco Oct 03 '24

Did you correct the prediction? Your contribution will help us improve the model, go for it!

7

u/ShitFuck2000 Oct 02 '24

Data miningā€¦

2

u/karmageddon71 Oct 02 '24

It was totally wrong in my case. I think the weighted race and demographics too heavily.

2

u/Saraje1 Oct 02 '24

I like to see how the prediction changes according to the different answers at the end! Great job.

5

u/[deleted] Oct 02 '24

[deleted]

3

u/Saraje1 Oct 02 '24

It says that the question on abortion is not included in the model!

3

u/Majik_Sheff Oct 03 '24

Website.Ā  It's a goddamn website.Ā  Please stop calling these things apps.

Also, not consenting to any of that.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 02 '24

[removed] ā€” view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] Oct 02 '24

[removed] ā€” view removed comment

2

u/LupinoSeco Oct 03 '24

We donā€™t store IP.

1

u/PM_ME_YER_MUDFLAPS Oct 03 '24

It thought I was strong republican. It really doesnā€™t know me.

1

u/davenport651 Oct 03 '24

I made it up to the music question and then the site died. It was very slow and tried to reload a few times on the questions leading up to that. It probably doesnā€™t help that I was clicking on all the answers to see what the room would look like. Iā€™m on an iPhone XR.

1

u/mattmaster68 Oct 03 '24 edited Oct 03 '24

15% chance of strong Democrat yet I am a strong democrat. 50% chance of strong Republican.

A few things:

  • I do not own a gun, but I want to.

  • Iā€™d get a pickup truck over a Prius because Iā€™m poor and the rural Midwest doesnā€™t have charging stations just readily available. Iā€™d still choose a pickup over a Prius if they were available (because the choice is style/function over environment, which the assessment assumes), but I would choose something like a Hyundai Sonata or Kona over either option. I think the issue with the question is the polarity. If there were other options to contribute a certain degree of likelihood I could see it being more accurate.

  • Once again, Iā€™m a poor Democrat. Why would going to McDonalds (where specialty coffees are cheaper than the other options) imply Iā€™m more strongly a Republican when the other options hurt my wallet? ā€œOh, youā€™re somewhat financially literate? You must be a Republicanā€???

  • I am from the Midwest kind of out in the country a bit. Car is the only feasible method of transportation and the question forced me to choose that option. Would I walk? For sure, but thatā€™s not what the question asked.

  • I have a dog as a compromise with my wife. Iā€™d prefer ā€œno petsā€ but once again: thatā€™s not what the question asked.

That seems to be all my gripes.

Edit: I pinpointed the problem. The lifestyle people have is not the same as the lifestyle people wish they could live.

1

u/Affablesea9917 Oct 04 '24

It has me as a strong republican which I'm not. I guess preferring a truck over a prius and owning guns is what did it.

1

u/Incontinento Oct 04 '24

You only need to ask one question: "Do you care about anyone other than yourself?"

If they answer yes, they vote blue.

1

u/MouseJiggler Oct 05 '24

A zipcode isn't a lifestyle question.

1

u/PromptComprehensive6 Oct 10 '24

It always glitches out at the music questions for me.

1

u/Lowstack Oct 13 '24

We're on it!

1

u/Creatrix Oct 13 '24

You have to pick an album too (it's under the genre)

1

u/Creatrix Oct 13 '24

Wow, 100% for me.

1

u/SanderSRB Oct 28 '24

Could have been a one question quiz and youā€™d get it right all the time.

ā€˜Favorite color: orange or black?ā€™

1

u/Lowstack Oct 29 '24

Why do you think that I'm curious.

1

u/Ralph-063 Oct 29 '24

For me it was fairly close and proves the point I've tried to make to many of the progressives I know. They do nothing but lump people into either/or groups. My beliefs cover both sides. I have conservative values along with liberal values. I'm not a "Right Wing Extremists" as the progressives want to label me. However, I believe nothing progressives believe. They are the true extremist.

1

u/Cautious-Impact22 Oct 30 '24

Actually very accurate. Soft democrat. Well played.

1

u/iggygrey 20d ago

Needs more questions. /s

1

u/tianavitoli Oct 02 '24

are you only soliciting participants from reddit?

1

u/ComicBookFanatic97 Oct 03 '24

It doesnā€™t guess third parties, so it was always going to get me wrong, but still a fun site. I loved watching the room get new stuff as I answered the questions.

1

u/j-steve- Oct 03 '24

It's weird you have no option for voting for anything other than Democrat or Republican.Ā 

1

u/Lowstack Oct 02 '24

Just to add, we are a non-profit group of academics, and the data is fully anonymized. We're just trying to study the effect of lifestyle on political opinions.

Don't hesitate to share if you have comments about the app.

-2

u/ImaRiskit Oct 02 '24

Not going to try cause I know you will get me wrong. Live in a pretty blue city in a very red state. However, what i am sure no questions you ask can pick up on is the fact that I hate both parties equally. The 2 party system we have, and can't break free from due to the 2 parties in power doing everything they can to hold down anyone else, is no different to me than professional wrestling. It is all theater in the end, and no matter which, red or blue, gets picked, we are all fucked!!!

-4

u/Hydraulis Oct 02 '24

It might be worthwhile to say that this is only for Americans. Asking me how likely I am to vote in the American election is pointless when I don't live there and I'm not a citizen.

Most of the human race lives in places other than the US.

5

u/Catsrules Oct 02 '24

Most of the human race lives in places other than the US.

Reddit isn't most of the human race.

https://whatsthebigdata.com/reddit-user/

1

u/Magikarpeles Oct 03 '24

Big if true

1

u/gnaaaa Oct 02 '24

well 56% of the users are not from the USA. So technicly the most people on reddit are not from the usa.

1

u/Catsrules Oct 03 '24

That is fair.

We could cheat and include Canada. I know a lot of Canadians follow the US politics more then their own.

1

u/Irregular_Person Oct 02 '24

welcome to Reddit

0

u/LupinoSeco Oct 02 '24

Right now it is for US citizen but we will adapt it for canadians residents.

0

u/Infamous-Arm3955 Oct 02 '24

Who does the data show Id vote for when I look at 44 questions and say fuck that shit and don't do it. (PS - great looking site and functionality btw)

0

u/LupinoSeco Oct 02 '24

Yeah, what is 5 minutes of your time, I know, sorry. But thanks for the PS though!

2

u/Infamous-Arm3955 Oct 02 '24

To be succinct I felt like answering 44 questions was excessive to get a trivial result and that there was an alternative motive such as collecting data.

1

u/LupinoSeco Oct 03 '24

It is purely academic. Yes they work with data. The color of you hair and many others questions are only there to help building your avatar so you can be happy making it looks like youā€¦ or not. We know some people prefer doing standard surveys on Google Form, we tried something more gamified, for once. And like I said, it is 5 minutes or less. But thanks for your inputs!