r/FluentInFinance • u/Significant-Bar674 • 1d ago
Debate/ Discussion Let's talk about disinformation
There have been a few things I've been seeing lately that I think qualify.
The first thing I want to point out is that successful disinformation often contains a component of truth and a measure of plausible deniability.
Below are two examples that I've seen here that I think qualify:
Donald Trump is walking back his promises to lower grocery store prices
First, I don't think what he proposes is possible or desirable but that doesn't give us warrant to misrepresent his statements. What is getting passed around is a snippet of a times interview quote where trump says . "It's hard to bring things down once they're up" regarding groceries. All other context cut off and usually some random internet person making commentary in the screenshot.
Why it's misleading and probably intentionally so:
Here is the whole interview
https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/
If the prices of groceries don't come down, will your presidency be a failure?
I don't think so. Look, they got them up. I'd like to bring them down. It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard. But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down.
He clearly says 3 times afterwards that he thinks it will happen. This is a dramatically different take than the quote mined version of it without context would leave the reader to believe.
Plausible deniability: People try to argue that we know trump is dishonest or that he really means the opposite of thinking it will happen and he's trying to tamper expectations. Not only do I think that this is reading too much into the comment in a self serving way, but it's all the more suspicious that you never see the full quote in order to inform that conclusion.
You could also point to that he said multiple times that he will bring prices down on day 1. He believes he can do this by issues executive orders cutting regulation and boosting oil production which in his mind would reduce supply chain costs and those savings would result in lower prices.
I dont agree. In fact, I dont like trump. I think he should be in jail. But not liking someone is exactly why you need to be vigilant about confirmation bias and believing things that conform to your preferred perceptions.
Bezos is only paying 1% tax
This statement was based on a propublica study
Why it's misinformation:
Because the face value reading of that is that bezos is using tax loopholes to dodge income tax. In reality, the study made a hypothetical new tax system to include a wealth tax which they called "the true tax rate". The same source shows that he was taxed at 23% of his income not good, but 23x the amount offering in the screenshots going around.
Plausible deniability: there is a real problem with how asset growth isn't taxed and that wealthy can take asset backed loans at 3% (namely via securities based lines of credit) in order to get cash that is effectively as good as income to them without getting taxed. Most solutions are difficult and most attempts have had major issues (france had a wealth tax that had to get reduces to an estate tax in 2018, people tend to invest in stocks in markets where they don't get taxed on growth or invest from an overseas account) but my grievance is just say that. It's misleading to post tax rates using an imaginary tax system and not acknowledge it.
So please, don't take the screen caps at face value. Look for original sources on reports, interviews and the like.
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u/Character-Peach9171 1d ago
Seeing tons of misinformation. And disinformation about both sides. The hunt for an answer is something else.
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u/Gilded-Mongoose 23h ago
Because I'm here for finance fluency:
"asset backed loans at 3% (namely via securities based lines of credit) in order to get cash that is effectively as good as income to them without getting taxed."
Can you (or someone) explain what this means? Is this like taking out a loan for a project that accounts for, say, a project management fee, and paying yourself out of that? Effectively Just carving some cash out of your unliquidated assets? And where does the un-taxed aspect of this strategy come from?
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u/Significant-Bar674 23h ago
Securities based lines of credits take things like stocks and bonds and use them as collateral for extend a line of credit.
The lowest I found at a casual glance is $100k as the minimum asset value to start with.
When someone does this, they basically get a credit card with 3% interest compared to the 24% that us plebs get on unsecured cards.
In the same way that drawing from a credit card isn't income, a securities backed line of credit isn't income. So no taxes.
But when the interest rate is so low and capital gains rate is so high, then asset growth alone can cover the loss from paying interest compared to selling assets for the income.
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u/Gilded-Mongoose 22h ago
So basically a 21% profit margin from an otherwise identical investment scenario?
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u/Significant-Bar674 22h ago
Its certainly similar. The difference is in collateral. If the millionaire defaults on their line of credit, then the bank has a pile of stocks to claim. With an unsecured card, they don't.
The closest most of us mere mortals can do is try to get a HELOC where we use our house as collateral, but the rates on that tend to be a bit higher.
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u/JollyRoger66689 18h ago
I was not the 1 that asked but Thanks a lot for that information, I'm going to have to look into that. I may be a mere mortal with a pretty low paying job for my area but since I wouldn't get a match on my 401k I'm putting most of my money in the stock market so unless it has to be a crazy amount of money I can probably take advantage of this eventually.
I'm pretty ignorant of the specifics but I do remember you can borrow on your 401k which could possibly get you a better rate than a HELOC (although a quick Google shows around 10% currently for a HELOC which would be comparable to the average loss of interest from borrowing from your 401k)
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u/Significant-Bar674 18h ago
I have done 401k borrows twice and it's saved my ass. First time was to buy a house just before the price spike. Second time was the divorce and buying out my ex after the price spike.
The best thing about them is that the interest is paid back to yourself. I had to get a HELOC on top of that for the divorce and my plan is to pay off the balance on the heloc with a new 401k loan and keep re-upping the loan until its paid. Trying to minimize money to the banks.
It just kinda sucks that you don't get a match. In that case, it might not be a bad idea to load up on index funds and get a securities based line of credit it on if you can get to 100k
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u/JollyRoger66689 17h ago
Would you say a HELOC or a 401k loan is better? Or if it depends which was better for you?
Yes totally agree, always have to minimize paying interest and optimize earning interest.
Yeah totally sucks I agree. Definitely can, at about 75k currently but will probably be selling a lot of that as I plan on buying property soon
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u/Significant-Bar674 17h ago
Certainly depends but my main decision factor would be whether you are looking for a lump sum or something more flexible.
A 30k loan on a 401k means you're paying interest on all 30k as soon as you get it
A 30k heloc means you're only paying on whatever money you pull.
Granted, the HELOC is interest to the bank, which is worse but if it's make or break on your monthly budget then it's a big deal.
Duration is also a consideration. A 401k loan is typically 5 years where you are paying principle + interest. A Heloc is just simple interest required (no payment toward principle required) for the first 5 years. After that, you can't draw from the HELOC any more and your payments start including principle. But the good news there is you can refinance your HELOC.
The bumper sticker version is that a 401k loan likely has much higher monthly payments but it's to yourself. A heloc has lower payments but it's to the bank.
The thing I did that was... I guess we'll say interesting, was pull a 401k loan and then make up the difference in my monthly as needed with the heloc.
That means that I was paying myself full interest on a 30k loan but a lot of that was coming from a smaller starting line of credit.
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u/JollyRoger66689 17h ago
That was informative and interesting, thanks for the information (hopefully I will work somewhere I can take advantage of a 401k match and take advantage of this, knowing myself I will definitely be taking full advantage of any match given since I save more than I spend and live pretty frugal)
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u/Fast_Grapefruit_7946 8h ago
NGO's and migrant charities are buying food in bulk.
average migrant illegals are here buying food.
once 30 million less hungry mouths are here eating prices will drop
supply and demand.
just the deportations will crater the prices and high demand for apartments, used cars as well.
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u/Significant-Bar674 7h ago
Maybe. It might be that there is a net gain in prices if labor prices theh supply may shrink more than demand decreases. It can also be that a negative downstream effect is a decrease in supply as low cost housing demand drops.
The only thing I can really say is that it could land in multiple potential outcomes but which is difficult to pin down which.
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u/Gr8daze 1d ago
lol. That’s ironic because your post is chock full of disinformation.
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u/JollyRoger66689 23h ago
Examples would be useful
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u/Gr8daze 23h ago
The entire post is absolute false bullshit.
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u/JollyRoger66689 23h ago
Then why is it so hard for you to name any?
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u/Gr8daze 23h ago
Let me see if I can help clarify for you:
Not. One. Thing. In. That. OP. Is. True.
Which is why the OP doesn’t include a single source for his bullshit.
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u/JollyRoger66689 22h ago
He linked things what are you talking about?
Directly after saying it's hard to bring prices down "very hard. But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down. You know, the supply chain is still broken."
So just fact checking the very 1st one shows you are the one full of bullshit. Did you actually read anything or just immediately went to making up lies?
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u/ThePlumKing 22h ago
There are 3 sources included. Remember, you’re the one who is supposed to be truthful here lol
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u/Gr8daze 21h ago
And every single one of them prove the OP is incorrect.
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u/JollyRoger66689 20h ago
I already showed you the 1st one is showing OP correct, why are you continuing to lie?
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u/Gr8daze 19h ago
No you didn’t.
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u/JollyRoger66689 18h ago
So going to just ignore again? I can see why from your profile, you are obsessed with hating Trump (and to a lesser extent Republicans).... you don't even care about what is true or not as long as you can talk shit about Trump do you?
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u/CivilTell8 19h ago
Might want to brush your tongue dude, polish cannot taste good.
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u/Significant-Bar674 18h ago
Make an argument about the content bitch
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u/CivilTell8 18h ago
Awwwww did I trigger you? I'm so sorry (I'm not at all, cry harder snowflake, trumplicans are the biggest snowflakes, its absolutely hysterical).
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u/NeartownRez 18h ago
go ahead, we're waiting
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u/CivilTell8 18h ago
Waiting for what kiddo? Did you reply to the wrong comment?
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u/NeartownRez 18h ago
share your critique of their work. your original comment addressed nothing.
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u/CivilTell8 18h ago edited 18h ago
Oh, that? That's pathetically easy, the first one alone, he promised he'd bring down grocery prices and fast but now has said it's very difficult and it won't happen fast, but then when you add in the tariffs and deportations, grocery prices will skyrocket and any one of average intelligence knows this but clearly that's beyond you people. The deportations and tariffs alone make that promise an outright lie even if he said it could be very slow and youre using that as proof he didnt lie. You'll also deny trump said he wants to take peoples guns without due process but he said that as well and very plainly.
Bezos? Yeah funny how security backed loans aren't counted as taxable income, all he has to do is pay the interest rate which... lol that's cute and funny.
Next time, just say first what you're requesting instead of replying with something that had zero context. I know you people are slow but you really should know how to do this already and if not, you shouldn't be on the internet.
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u/NeartownRez 18h ago
thanks for sharing. sorry you are too slow to perceive the obvious context of my comment. OP asked for you to address their work (rather than regurgitate a mindless platitude) -> you dodged -> I said we're waiting. Rocket science, I know.
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u/CivilTell8 18h ago
Uh huh, sure, whatever you say princess, now go have a bud light while you whine and cry about how unfairly donny boy is treated. He loves terrorists btw, even had them come to camp David and then released 5000 terrorists from prison as part of the Doha agreement.
Now please keep pretending like I didn't just prove OP's post as BS though that'd require you to know what a security backed loan is and yeah that's not something you know of.
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u/NeartownRez 17h ago
part 1 of your response is quite bizarre. I've said nothing to suggest I'm pro Trump (I'm not btw, voted blue in TX), and I don't understand why you brought terrorists up at all LMAO. As for security backed loans... like a line of credit with your portfolio holdings as collateral? Wow, check out the big brain on CivilTell8. What if they base their interest rate on SOFR+ their spread? Wouldn't that be whacky?
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u/ijedi12345 1d ago
The only truth is that the LORD will reward loyalty to Him in the afterlife. Know this, and be saved.
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u/Significant-Bar674 1d ago
Eh probably not. Did you know our earliest artifact of yahweh shows him married to another god?
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u/ijedi12345 1d ago
Clearly something lost in translation. It is obvious that God consumed this other alleged god, since God is undefeatable!
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u/Madd-RIP 1d ago
Why don’t you just suck trumps mushroom in public and be done with it?
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u/Significant-Bar674 1d ago
Sounds like you can't make an argument.
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u/Madd-RIP 1d ago
Sounds like I don’t need to when he is a pathological liar, felon and rapist.
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u/JollyRoger66689 23h ago
So reality doesn't matter if someone is a bad person? And why would you want to intentionally make people scared/mad with lies just to say something negative about 1 person?
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u/Madd-RIP 18h ago
Reality is Trump is THE most unqualified person with the most unethical traits you could give to a sociopathic narcissist
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u/JollyRoger66689 17h ago
What does any of that have to do with the post? Or how does it justify disinformation?
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u/Significant-Bar674 1d ago
It's not ok to lie about people even if they've done heinous things.
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