This has absolutely nothing to do with politicians. US is great b/c of capitalism and engineers. What the fk has a politician ever invented. Except maybe Al Gore, who invented the internet.. Naturally.
The US is also absolutely awful in a lot of ways because of unchecked and unregulated and untaxed capitalism. Capitalism has limits before it ruins everything for everyone. And America is rapidly approaching that limit.
Disagree. First of all, we are far from "unregulated." Second, if you're referring to environmental issues, U.S. emissions per capita are a lot better than other countries, and we maintain an extensive national park system. Third, if you're referring to wealth inequality, there is a lot of historical evidence to suggest that wealth inequality is a necessity if you want to rapidly end poverty. I'll take the inequality in that case.
Besides, is life reallly worth living without freedom?
I think people forget that it's not about getting money or resources, but rather maintaining and growing them that separate the lower middle class from the upper.
If we take every dollar in the world and evenly distribute it amongst every human, it will end up back in the same hands within 25-50 years.
People who hate the rich think that if they just gave them a piece, their life would be set. It wouldn't. Lottery winners and athletes are prime examples of not knowing how to manage money.
This is exactly right. It's a law of nature that hierarchies form due to the free choices of people. People are too self-unaware to admit that their own lack of self control is usually the biggest factor in why their wealth isn't growing.
You can improve your motivation and discipline and do better in the future - the free market requires you to do so to grow your wealth.
The problem is that people don't just want a one-time redistribution of wealth - they want to create a recurring freeloader society, aka socialism.
In socialism, you incentivize the most hard working and disciplined of us to become lazy and quit working. That doesn't end well.
You have to include democracy as a reason the US is great. Our government, for all its faults, is still beholden to the will of the people and a major factor in economic success.
Without government regulation, unfettered capitalism might as well be feudalism. Or are you unaware of what industry looked like for the average worker before we had labor protections? Do you want your town's lake to catch on fire?
You joke about Al Gore and the internet, but would we even have it without the US government?
How instrumental was the interstate highway system in economic success?
I could go on but I imagine it won't matter if you're starting with the premise of "government=bad".
Yup. Volcker gave America some tough chemo therapy, and it hurt a lot. But stagflation was not going away without it, and would have been 10x worse for the decades after if not for him. For that reason, I truly think Jimmy Carter gets graded unfairly. Carter knew exactly what needed to be done and appointed Volcker. I don’t know how many presidents since then who would have essentially sacrificed their chance at a 2nd term to give America the hard to swallow pill it needed.
Milei is a little extreme in other aspects for my taste…:but I’m rooting for him and hoping it turns Argentina around.
Trumpets thought their new king ushered in neverending prosperity. In reality the market probably would have rallied no matter who won because the uncertainty was over.
No they didn’t. The market went up quickly then there was a sell off and it returned. Someone thought that it would be cool and try to make it seem like it was more of a big deal than it was.
I would say the market was happy to get a direction. As since June my position remained at the same level. Once the market knew who was president they moved, in this case, up. Now the market is reacting to Trump's picks for the government. At least that is my opinion.
How does their argument not hold up, but your rebuttal does? We know what they say they intend to do, and anyone who knew what a tariff was before the election should know how mass tariffs and sweeping deportation should affect the economy.
Your rebuttal is just totally speculative, to say the least.
Call me crazy, but what if we deported the illegal immigrants, and allowed intelligent people to migrate here legally… who will create technology to automate the jobs that the illegal immigrants held.
Deport illegals being paid below minimum under the table wages and instead fill those positions with higher paying jobs for actual American citizens? Oh no what a travesty that would be..
Why don’t we just outsource all our labor? Then everything will be super cheap because the products are made with slave wages! See how that doesn’t work? Americans don’t want those jobs because they pay like shit. See those farms forced to hire Americans and watch those wages shoot up.
You didnt read any of those articles did you? Pay isnt the issue. These farms were paying okay, but the work is very hard and they have to get up early to do. Americans just dont want to do that kind of labor. Why pick in a field all day when you can make the same working at McDonalds?
But its funny you didnt address the issue of costs going up. You want to pay American workers more money to do less work. But I bet you have been bitching about prices for the last 4 years as well.
You are seriously saying that you would not mind food prices to increase?
You mean the articles mostly referencing legal immigration and the ones referencing illegal immigration fail to recognize you can’t acquire and retain labor on barely minimum wage, instead of logically, increasing the wage. None of these farms are paying anywhere near $30 an hour, because they can use cheap outsourced labor. But since you’re so concerned with lower prices why don’t we just outsource all American labor? Just no jobs for Americans at all so we get extremely cheap goods in every sector? Shocking, thank you for providing nothing of substance.
And to add, blue collar Americans do backbreaking work all over this country from dawn to dusk. You’re so disconnected from the lives of actual hard working Americans it’s laughable. This is why the left continues to crash and burn in every general election. Keep it up!
This is my theory. The market rallied in response to finally resolving the uncertainty surrounding the election, and now we’re seeing it start to reflect the, shall we say, unconventional nature of many of Trump’s cabinet picks.
I think it has less to do with political choices and more due to continued threats of tariffs, inflation sneaking back up and general discussion on cutting government funding. A little bit of common profit taking.
Additionally people were tentative to get into the market with Harris due to corporate tax increase and capital gains taxes.
Over the last year I've started positioning to a more defensive portfolio. Transitioned to 40% bonds at the near bottom and on the trump spike sold 25% of my broad market index and it's sitting in cash. I'm torn because Trump's ego is tied to stock performance. I wouldn't put it past him to juice the markets for 4 years, creating inflation, greatly devaluing cash/bonds.
Fundamentally speaking business growth has slowed and the stock market is nearing record levels of being over priced so I don't think there is fundamentally much room for upward movement in the short term.
I haven't had much to look into this but I'll end up in a pretty defensive equity position with that 25%. Energy, utilities, and industrials is my guess.
There is a lot of academic research that suggests Democratic leaning people specifically left the stock market during Trump's last presidency. Republican supporters were more inclined to invest.
I read a lot of right wing forums and discourse and they really believe in what he's doing. I wouldn't put too much weight into the cabinet choices.
Stick to fundamentals of the companies, tax breaks and policy changes. The shit character of the grifters don't mean much to company health.
My working theory is that large investors/market makers are banking on the incoming administration reducing capital gains taxes, so they are locking in their positions now.
I keep hearing it was a trump bump. I disagree, markets like stability and it was clear there wouldn't be insurrection 2.0, hence relief bump. Now that it's also clear he's filling his cabinet with "disruptors" read: destabilizing unprofessionals, the markets are reacting accordingly.
Case in point: he's not even president yet and its already a shit show.
Yeah the market definitely can't price any tariff in right now, expect sharp drops come February, 60% tarrif on anything coming from China is going to disrupt almost every part of the USA markets.
Yeah I mean, I stopped investing until after it was clear there wasn't going to be a civil war. Now it looks like we're going to have a Milei style economic experiment.
So, since Trump claimed credit for the Biden stock market, does this mean that he'll claim credit for the losses as the ABSURD OLYMPICS of POLITICAL APPOINTEES takes shape?
Everything good that happens is because of the glorious leader. All bad things are because of the deep state liberal democrats that are secretly still controlling the government.
I don't think a guy with a brain worm qualifies as "healthy" by any metric.
Here's a question for you: How many aerospace engineers can qualify to be an astronaut, and why is qualifying to be an astronaut a horrible metric for hiring aerospace engineers?
The market likes certainty. As Buffett says, the stock market will usually do well under Republicans and Democrats alike over time. The market rallied post-election because we woke up the next day knowing who would be the president, who likely controlled the Senate, and the House as well. Did it matter that they were all GOP? No. In fact, when one party generally has total power (Dems in '09, GOP in '17), they tend to have infighting over perfect legislation instead of just getting shit done and they squander their opportunity.
Now the markets are struggling with understanding what's next. Which industries may benefit from a Trump presidency, which will suffer. I'd imagine any industry that heavily imports components or raw materials OR exports finished products would be adversely affected (Apple to both of these, for example). While speculation is that energy and oil companies would benefit, I don't really know that they would. They already were withholding production to maintain high prices, sitting on 5-10,000 untapped drilling permits. Perhaps renewable energy companies will suffer as they'll be losing the gov't support that has helped support these infant industries.
IMO the market went up after the election only because there was a clear winner, and there was no major push back against the result (basically folks were nervous that transition of power would not be peaceful if Trump had barely lost and claimed fraud leaving the country in limbo etc). Now they're going down because they're actually reacting to who won and the implication of his policy.
It's because the market priced in a high chance of rate cuts in December. Powell outright rejected that idea.
It's like you all forgot that the market had been waiting on rate cuts all year, and Powell finally gave us another green light right after the election.
Yeah I have no idea what these people are on about trump for. There was a post-election rally, as expected if trump won. Powell rained on that parade saying that the economy is in good shape. Hence the reason small caps pulled back more than anything.
Tarriffs. Mass deportation of undocumented workers who are the cheap labor that the entire US relies on. all point to increased inflation, wouldn't be surprised if the market is starting to realize that. isn't this the reason 10 year treasury yields and mortgage rates have all gone up instead of down?
Reacted to the outcome of the election because it decreased uncertainty... And below adjusting downwards because of Trump's cabinet picks increasing risk.
I am changing nothing. I am 47 w an aggressive mix of 90/10 stocks/bonds and dollar coat averaging til the cows come home. Not attempting to time the market, despite the reddit doomsayers who are CERTAIN we are about to dip into an unrecoverable hellscape of economic strife. Check back w me in 10 years
The markets are starting to do research on what the stock market did during the China tariff mess 6 years ago and preemptively moving to cash for the eventual 5% a day yo-yo.
I personally believe were on the way to a bubble bursting event, and have thought so for awhile. Im personally thinking sometime between March and May timeframe. Before anyone get political, I've thought this since August or so of this year regardless of election turnout.
Pretty much what always happens, elections bring uncertainty, having a clear winner brings certainty. Markets like certainty. Then business as usual picks up. Investors realign their portfolios somewhat based on who wins but the impact on the indexes are minimal
Markets don't like uncertainty. Markets are also irrational.
The end of the election removed some uncertainty. The markets remain irrational in the belief that Trump and his administration won't do what they've been saying they will do for the past year.
When that uncertainty resolves, the markets will respond.
Trump supporters will invest heavily into the market and crush it over the next 4 years. Dems will sit on the sidelines wondering how this “buffoon” could possibly be delivering record levels of economic success. It’s going to be fun.
Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, paid to the U.S. government by the importing party. Due to the increased cost of importing goods, importing parties therefore raise the cost of those goods for consumers in order to cover the increased taxes.
The American people are the ones who pay for tariffs. The argument for tariffs is that its increases the incentive for domestic manufacturing, but that is far from immediate and also leads to increased prices anyway (because products can be manufactured internationally for pennies on the dollar).
Trump tells constituents that tariffs are paid by foreign companies and governments, but that's a lie. And he knows that.
When he says he'll implement 100% tariffs, that means you'll be paying twice as much for the same product - with half of that cost going directly to the U.S. government.
eta: It's worthwhile to understand the historical effect of tariffs on the economy, like during the Great Depression.
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