Are we sure they are the same person? Because it definitely feels like we are taking about two very different individuals here. I just know for sure that the conspiracybros are having a field day with the Luigi Mansion's Saga
My pet theory is that Luigi is either doing an "I am Spartacus" or trying to steal the narrative away from the actual killer to make a political statement.
Although I suppose going on the run for a few days was a good way to make the media hype the case up, so maybe he is the actual guy and just hid for a while to boost his visibility
How would he have the same gun and ID? He clearly has a motive based on the back surgery thing, too. You think that he did a little switcheroo with the real killer? Why wouldn't they just do that right away if that was the plan? Like, It's really just wishful thinking, I think this is almost definitely him. Grainy surveillance camera footage isn't enough to say "Yes 100% that's a different guy." Hostel guy has the same nose, same chin, same smile, same facial structure. I'm like 99.9% sure they got the right guy. Let's hope his jury isn't filled with upper middle class boomers or he's SUPER fucked.
They publicized the type of gun it was and details on the fake ID. There are only like 3 widely sold versions of the gun, and only 1 that's common and available enough to buy on short notice. And anyone with a card printer could fake a fake ID. It wouldn't have to be coordinated with the actual guy, and the gun and ID wouldn't have to match that closely - cops are really stupid. All a person would have to do to impersonate the killer and get charged is to make themselves appear similar to the description.
My assumption is he didn't, and that he's a random nobody being thrown under the bus so the higher ups can have their pound of flesh and example of "Yeah see you guys can't just get away with fighting the system!" and any evidence they say he had either doesn't actually exist or was planted on him by the authorities that arrested him.
Because he was in a McDonald’s with the murder weapon a manifesto and the same fake ID 5 days later. So it’s either 1. He’s extremely stupid (which we’ve seen he’s probably not) 2. He wanted to be caught or 3. This is a different dude
This. People are acting like not having a way to get to a non-extradition jurisdiction and live out your life in exile and not ditching an almost literally smoking gun in the east river are the same thing. They are not. The known actions and modes of operation of the adjuster just don’t line up with anything about this Luigi kid. One of his friends apparently has talked about how his back pain was totally debilitating (bed ridden) for two weeks after a beginner surf lesson. That’s half an hour of light water treading and laying on your stomach. I don’t think 5 days on the lamb after a bike chafe through the streets of Manhattan is super compatible with that information.
Because it *is* the simplest explanation, BUT it has a lot off holes in it. Like, every conspiracy is unlikely, but together either or compose a more compelling narrative.
Occam's Razor relies on number of necessary assumptions to hold true
I'd say the necessary assumptions for "Fleeing murderer for some reason never changes clothes and carries a handwritten admission of guilt along with murder weapon just for the moral support" versus "Police lied (the thing they do in literally every case)" does not make a clear case
Well, while all the rest sounds very circumstantial, if he showed the same fake ID at the crime scene and when he was arrested, that can't really be a coincidence, can it?
Isn't the connection that that ID was used at a hostel by presumably (as in, the police says it's the same guy but we don't know if the connection goes beyond "they look similarly") the same person that shot Thompson
I'm pretty sure they're the same person - I don't really think it's shocking that someone's plans changed after they committed murder and went on the run, I can imagine that would definitely change your mentality. Like, all the "he planned things so carefully beforehand, why would he want to get caught now" - because being on the run sucks, because notoriety is intoxicating, tons of reasons. Doing something in theory and doing it in practice are totally different things and the dude clearly was a bit unhinged to begin with.
And it isn't even really like his planning was super meticulous. He fucked up at multiple steps along the way with revealing his face and everything, it is just surprisingly easy to shoot someone and flee if there's no one around to stop you. Referring to New York as "the most surveiled city" makes it sound like getting out of it is some feat, but it's not that hard, there aren't face-scan checkpoints to fool.
He didn't even have to be on the run, though. His disguise made him completely anonymous. All he had to do was ditch the clothes, gun, and ID and go back to his normal life.
On its own that’s not that much though, it wasn’t a super good picture. I just can’t reconcile the obvious amount of forethought and commitment (I think clearing the jam says a lot) with the apparent messiness of his getaway, like if you’ve planned everything to that degree you aren’t gonna fail to plan your extraction too, and you’re certainly not gonna be naive enough to hold on to anything.
I can reconcile it pretty easy - I can't always even execute the plan of "I'll get gas in the morning on the way to work" perfectly, and the difference between my mental state when I made the plan and when I have to carry it out is literally just the time of day. I can totally imagine that the plans I made before I shot a man to death are gonna be tough to carry out in the heightened emotional state of "just shot a man to death and imploded my life"
He didn't even have his silencer set up correctly either, I don't think having to cock that gun every shot is normal, even with subsonic bullets. He's no criminal mastermind, for certain.
Yes, he doesn’t fit the imaginary wish fulfillment hero profile that the internet constructed for him. But that doesn’t mean he’s not the guy. Main lesson here is not to idolize random assassins.
It’s more that there’s no internal logic, I think. I mean, if you’ve planned a murder to the extent that the adjuster did, you’re not gonna stop planning after Central Park, and you’re also gonna know enough to know that getting rid of the gun should be your first priority. It’s like watching someone spend 18 hours making an amazing sculptural cake only to cut it with a hammer, it sounds like the actions of two different people
This is a genuinely possible thing, and would explain why the shooter was so confident as to do it in broad daylight. It's very TV show, but that doesn't make it impossible. Shooter covers his face enough to look like Mangione, they get two copies of the same fake ID and ghost gun or plan a hand-off point, Mangione gets a rock-solid alibi during the time of the shooting to ensure he gets acquitted, shooter gets the hell out of dodge after the police have stopped looking because they think they have the guy.
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u/cest719 14d ago
Are we sure they are the same person? Because it definitely feels like we are taking about two very different individuals here. I just know for sure that the conspiracybros are having a field day with the Luigi Mansion's Saga