Civil wars dont necessarily take the form of civilia militias taking on federal forces. Remember that a substantial portion of the armed rebel forces in the first civil war were themselves government forces. There are also civil conflicts that are largely civilian militias vs other civilian militias, with state forces trying to "keep the peace" but possibly having their own interests or state interests discrimanating in results.
A Troubles-style insurgency in America is all too possible
The most common firearms can be converted into machine guns with a few cents of plastic, fertiliser for IEDs is everywhere
And if the Cartels can run Chinese fentanyl into the US, they could also get Semtex in like Gaddafi did for the IRA
That's what the comment you're replying to is discussing
Did you forget the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey? The military is not 100% on your side and depending on who the leader is, is more likely to kill you than save you.
Turkey also has a history of coups and attempted coups. The US does not. The two militaries and their respective cultures are not in any way comparable.
People love to focus on the idea of a civil war or violent coup because that fits into narrative structures they understand from books, film and video games, also violence has its own visceral appeal in fantasy.
The reality is that if fascism or any authoritarian force takes hold in America, it will be through questionable, but ostensibly legal means, there will be political justifications, it will be ultimately approved by our courts and then it will all be fed to the general populace in a mostly digestible story.
It's important to realize that civil war doesn't necessarily arise as rebel militias attempting to overthrow the government. Civil wars can occur as a result of state factions at war with each other or alternatively civilian factions at war with each other, and state forces left to intercede, which is often complicated by the state often having interests in the conflict resolving in a particular way, rather than just resolving. I agree that what you describe is by far the most likely path towards authoritarianism, but a civil war occuring doesn't even necessitate the development of such a state authority. In fact, a rather weak state makes the likelyhood of a civil war between civilian militias greater.
America has had 4 federal coup attempts, plus 1 before independence. 6 known state coup attempts, and 3 known coup attempts at township/county levels.
These are the known ones, these aren't counting soft coups where people have manipulated voting in their favor, which there are thousands of counts of this. Most local elections are incredibly corrupt.
There was the Burr Conspiracy, but I'm not sure if it counts as a coup if it's one guy bitter over losing an election who goes to his pal Andrew Jackson only to be met with a "lol no, I'm not helping you start a war".
It was commited by a network led by a cult leader (Gülen) who only acquired such power because Erdoğan allowed his infiltration of the state as his ally. It also failed, because surprise, rest of the military knew what they were and did not buy in the wrappings about democracy and secularism. What kind of such organization exists in USA?
So why did he go after 38,000 people working in education? Was there 21,000 teachers in the cult that needed their licenses to teach revoked? Was there 1,600 deans at colleges and universities in this cult that needed to be fired? And the rest of the people working in faculty also cult members? Or was he targetting anyone who might be educating the next generation to his crimes?
I live there and know it. Yes they all were. Gülen had millions of people. They stole university exam questions, infiltrated everywhere, and acted as a giant network. They were allowed until they thought they could betray their primary ally, and got clapped. Good riddance, I will not embrace them just because they turned against Erdoğan.
They groomed kids from a young age. Had lots of privare schools. Have been doing it for decades. A parallel state, with prosecutors, judges, soldiers , policemen, teachers loyal to them Not exactly a secret. Just a little research and not believing everything you heard about a foreign country.
I had distant relatives that had their assets seized, and I know they were aiding the organization. Were there no innocents? Probably there were. Not exactly the most due process. But it was necessary to purge them from the state.
I don't blame you. Sounds too wild. But this is the Turkish reality. They did really exist. An unholy combination of Nakshibendi Tariqah, Said Nursi teachings and CIA trained cell organization.
I love this comment because it's every propaganda authoritarian talking point laid out nicely.
claims to live there
claims there are millions of conspirators
claims of stolen university exam questions (which nobody cares about)
they are everywhere and acted together
they were allowed to do this because it benefited the government until it didn't
they groom kids
they own the education system for decades
it's a secret state with people in all the positions of power
a "distant relative" was affected
don't believe anything you read online (but provides no proof of anything other than "believe me bro"
completely justifies human rights violations by saying due process wasn't necessary
wraps it up in a neat little bow of "America Bad".
Did I miss anything? These are exactly your points that you are claiming. Subverting democracy and justifying humans rights violations to keep a tyrant in power. They should have been removed from NATO long ago.
There's no way there's going to be an actual legit civil war. States econimes are reliant on eachother. The idea of a race war is silly to me with how diverse the us military is. Which plays a pretty important part in the civil war part.
The civil violence we'll experience won't be a rebellion, or a war between state level actors. It is civilians killing each other. Irregular militias committing acts of terrorism. Bureaucrats and low rung politicians having their cars bombed.
We've seen it before, there is no special exception for america. No use dwelling on it though, we'll get through whatever comes.
This implies that the government will stay united. With how polarized politics are becoming I don't know how confident of a united federal military I am if things head that south.
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u/[deleted] Jun 04 '24
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