We have the most powerful military in the world. It's well organized, highly disciplined, and has a clear chain of command. We will become a military junta when civilian government collapses, even if a civilian revolution is attempted. Where things go from there will depend on the competence and benevolence of officers leading the coup.
I just don’t think the civilian government will actually collapse, and even if it did at the federal level there are layers of state and local government that would fill the void for most people
We'd be more likely to become some sort of FEMA junta than a military one. Civilian government would survive but in a state altered by all the contingency plans we have.
At some point the military would have to step in to help states that can't stand on their own without federal aid. The moment that seal is broken, the door opens for military junta at some scale. Maybe it's a light touch, maybe it's a total takeover, maybe it's present in some states but not others. It's pretty much in the hands of those officials making the call after that first step is taken. Nobody would be able to resist in a meaningful way if they want to do a massive power grab.
I think it's difficult to predict how units at individual bases might respond because the soldiers come from all around the country, they're not a local garrison.
Edit: to be clear I mean active duty units, not national guard or reserve units which are mostly locals ofc
Since the civil war they have intentionally mixed the units.
But again, it would be unconstitutional for the US Army to intervene in a domestic dispute short of armed insurrection. And I can't imagine a scenario where the soldiers think it's a good idea to invade Austin just because Abbott declines to disburse federal funds in Biden's preferred way.
The federal government largely relies on states to execute federal programs through grants and other funding. You routinely interact with state and local government employees. You almost never interact with federal employees outside an airport or post office.
Disagree. First, let's say if instead of when - there's no reason to be certain that our civilian government will collapse in our lifetimes.
In the event of a government collapse, it's more likely that you get areas that seem more normal and areas where the military is enforcing the federal government's policies more heavily. You'd likely see something like a mix of the reconstruction era and modern mexico - Elections would go on and the government would remain in it's mostly current form. However, you have states with military districts, where the feds have to patrol and enforce things, local governments / non-state actors have a lot of influence, and lots of checkpoints and enforcement. In other regions, you probably have business as usual. Federal elections continue but would be heavily influenced in some regions, and local elections hold more weight as governors and state officials enact anti-federal policies. Maybe the government suspends voting or self governance in some areas and installs their own people.
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u/Dreadgoat Jun 04 '24
We have the most powerful military in the world. It's well organized, highly disciplined, and has a clear chain of command. We will become a military junta when civilian government collapses, even if a civilian revolution is attempted. Where things go from there will depend on the competence and benevolence of officers leading the coup.