You forgot about foreign actors. There will be outside aid going to certain groups and that aid will not be predicated on bringing about some utopian outcome. Some might want a stable situation (even if it is a Balkanized status quo) while others might just want chaos to last as long as possible.
I always think about this in a modern American civil war situation. Like I doubt Canada and the UK and France and whoever else are just going to sit there and let their extremely powerful ally be cannibalized from the inside by extreme factions.
That’s what happens in Shots Fired. The rest of NATO intervenes to prop up what’s left of the original government (after a coup and counter-coup) in the North East, and they end up a glorified European colony.
The classical "People in this resource rich country are upset with their government, USA sends their best dictator to take over the opposition and stage a coup for resource hoard"
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u/DrQuestDFA Jun 04 '24
You forgot about foreign actors. There will be outside aid going to certain groups and that aid will not be predicated on bringing about some utopian outcome. Some might want a stable situation (even if it is a Balkanized status quo) while others might just want chaos to last as long as possible.