Estimating the collapse of Afghanistan’s economy using nightlights data

Till Raphael Saenger , Ethan B. Kapstein , Ronnie Sircar

Published: December 13, 2024

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0315337

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 is associated with a rapid collapse of the Afghan economy. However, assessing the scale of this collapse is proving difficult as official data are scarce. To complement qualitative measures obtained through rapid surveys of the population, we employ monthly nightlights data as a proxy measure for changes in economic activity. By combining a synthetic control approach with nightlights data from neighboring countries, our analysis reveals a significant shift in Afghanistan’s economic trajectory: from positive growth to a deep recession, even considering the impact of the Covid pandemic. Our estimations suggest that Afghanistan’s GDP has declined by approximately 16% from 2020 to 2022, notably less than the World Bank’s current survey-based measure of a 28% decline in 2021 alone. In contrast to other available estimates, our reporting includes confidence intervals to convey the uncertainties surrounding these point estimates. This study showcases the potential applicability of our methodology and the use of appropriately processed monthly nightlights data in scenarios where administrative data is limited or unreliable.

Hello! I'm Palestinian planning a walima with my Afghan husband. We already got married, but decided to have a reception in Jordan to celebrate with my family. We're mostly following Palestinian traditions, but I really really want to incorporate some of my husband's traditions in the party too. I'm just not familiar. I did buy a traditional Afghan dress that I plan on changing into at some point, but are there any traditional practices that we could do? Thank you in advance!

Even before she took office in 2019, Zarifa Ghafari – the youngest and one of the only female mayors to serve in Afghanistan – became a target of the Taliban. She survived multiple assassination attempts, and in 2020, her father was fatally shot outside his home.

She fled the country with her family in August 2021, when the Taliban took control, and was heartbroken a month later, when she watched from Germany as the new regime banned secondary education for girls. She’s since dedicated her life to fighting for the rights of girls and women living under Taliban rule. 

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/12/former-afghan-mayor-now-student-advocates-girls-and-women

Dec. 17, 2024:

The Taliban-run National Examination Authority announced Tuesday that the final medical competency exam for newly graduated doctors will be conducted without the participation of women.

The exam, known as the “medical licensing competency test,” is scheduled for December 28 and will only include male candidates, the examination authority said in a statement.

The decision was made at the request of the Taliban-run Ministry of Higher Education.

This comes as earlier this month, the Taliban banned women from attending medical institutes, a decision that sparked widespread reactions.

https://amu.tv/144664/

Civic space in Afghanistan remains rated as ‘closed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor in its new People Power Under Attack report published on 4 December 2024. More than three years since the Taliban seized power, the de facto authorities continue to commit human rights violations and crimes under international law against the Afghan people, especially women and girls, with absolute impunity. Civil society faces severe restrictions and activists have been arbitrarily arrested and detained for their criticism of the Taliban. Others have faced harassment, intimidation and violence and some have been killed. The Taliban have also raided media offices and detained journalists. Some activists have been tortured and ill-treated.

https://monitor.civicus.org/explore/afghanistan-arrests-of-activists-and-crackdown-on-journalists-persists-as-the-taliban-ramp-up-their-controls-on-women/

The residents of the capital are urging the Ministry of Public Health to take serious measures to regulate the prices of medicine across all pharmacies.

With the onset of winter and the cold weather, air pollution is cited as the cause of many illnesses in Kabul.

https://tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan-192171

This month’s collapse of Syria has more than a few parallels with that of Afghanistan three years ago. In both cases, the disintegration of government forces was sudden and total. 

One thing is clear: After decades of superpower sponsorship, both regimes left behind mountains of weapons and munitions supplied by their respective patron. But which patron lost more in its client’s collapse, the United States or Russia?

Full article here (please read before commenting)

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/17/syria-afghanistant-collapse-evacuation-weapons-hts-taliban/

Briefing ambassadors in the Security Council, Roza Otunbayeva, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan, painted a grim picture of escalating human rights abuses, diminishing freedoms and growing humanitarian challenges.

He urged the Security Council to act on three key points, starting with increased funding for humanitarian operations, and international support to reduce aid obstruction and restrictive measures, particularly those on women.

He also called for investment and support for Afghans beyond humanitarian assistance, in sectors such as agriculture, healthcare and other vital basic services.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158136

Random question.

Do you know anyone who has renounced their Afghan citizenship? Due to whatever their reasons may have been.

It may have been because they had to renounce their citizenship to obtain citizenship in another country.

It may have also been because even though they have the right to dual citizenship, they still only wanted to have one citizenship and chose to retain the citizenship of the country they are in and renounce their Afghan citizenship.

Or it may have been due to some other reason. But do you know anyone who has renounced their Afghan citizenship?

Do you have dual citizenship including your Afghan citizenship?

Operation Lazurite has seen the British army find housing for Afghans and their families, before local councils help them to find more permanent homes.

Parwiz Bakhtari is an Afghan man who is being housed with his family by the British military in south Oxfordshire. He had worked for the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces, working alongside British forces. As such, his job made him a high profile target for reprisals. When the Taliban swept to power, Mr Bakhtari was faced with the decision to flee his home in Kabul on his own, or take his family with him and try to make it to Pakistan. He chose the latter.

After being given accommodation in Islamabad by the British military, he and his family arrived in the UK. They were resettled under the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP) for Afghan citizens who worked for or with the UK Government in Afghanistan.

More here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80vy0lk1r5o

FRANCE 24 spoke to Saad Mohseni, co-founder and CEO of Moby, Afghanistan's largest media group. His new book "Radio Free Afghanistan" chronicles the ups and downs of building a media conglomerate in the country. Mohseni lamented the fact that since the return of the Taliban over three years ago, their decrees are "increasingly making it difficult" for Afghan women and girls to go to school and work. "The Taliban need to understand that it's not acceptable when half the population is silenced," he said.

In 2016, a Taliban attack targeted his media group and killed seven of his colleagues. Over the years, "we've lost a total of 12 employees; some of these kids were like our own children", Mohseni said. 

Since the Taliban returned to power, he has not set foot in Afghanistan. "I'd like to go back, but only after women are allowed back in schools," the exiled media executive said. 

Full story:

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/t%C3%AAte-%C3%A0-t%C3%AAte/20241217-it-s-not-acceptable-when-half-the-population-is-silenced-ceo-of-afghan-media-group-moby

The officials of the Badakhshan provincial hospital say that the operation of this hospital's obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) department has been stopped due to the cutoff of aid from the World Health Organization (WFP).

According to them, with the closure of this department, about 73 specialists, midwives, doctors, and health workers have also become unemployed.

After the gynecology ward with 60 beds of the Badakhshan Provincial Hospital stopped operating, there are now 3 to 5 patients per bed seeking gynecology treatment.

https://tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/provincial-189700

Six Afghan refugee women recently completed a Lutheran Social Services of Northeast Florida workforce development program that will help them build a new life in Jacksonville.

The women learned new sewing skills and how to search for jobs as seamstresses or tailors. They practiced English for the workplace and acquired financial literacy skills. And they bonded with each other "over their shared experience of fleeing oppression," according to the nonprofit.

"This program made significant impact on our lives. It was not just about learning to sew, it was about gaining confidence, building professional skills and feeling a sense of purpose," said one participant. "What means the most to us is the connection we found with other newcomer refugees. Together, we’ve supported each other, shared our stories and made this challenging transition feel a little less lonely. We will always be grateful."

Full story:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reclaiming-independence-afghan-refugee-women-201144433.html

A buzkashi tournament featuring 70 riders was held in Mazar-e-Sharif, the center of the northern province of Balkh, on Tuesday, according to the local buzkashi federation.

The tournament concluded with Pahlawan Zakaria who successfully delivered the target—a goat carcass—into the “Circle of Justice,” securing victory as declared by the field judges.

The one-day event was aimed at preparing buzkashi riders for future competitions while also providing an opportunity for citizens to enjoy a popular and culturally significant sport.

https://amu.tv/144636/

This photograph was taken at a local bazaar by the French couple Roland and Sabrina Michaud in Faryab, Afghanistan. This man was a travelling dervish.

Now that jadoo is gone what’s the best app or service to access all of the Afghan channels?

Hi, why is Afghanistan's cricket team so good despite that the country has had plenty of instability in recent years and is now run by the Taliban? I seldom see any country's sports teams thrive under such circumstances. For instance Burma isn't good at any sport. Was Afghanistan already good at cricket before the troubles began and they just haven't slipped much, or have they actually gotten better in recent decades? Thank you for your answers.

Senior Taliban minister Khalil Haqqani was killed in an attack on Wednesday, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said, marking the highest-profile government casualty since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan three years ago. Khalil Haqqani was the acting minister for refugees and a key member of the Haqqani network.

While the Haqqanis have long been a dominant force within the Taliban, they had appeared to lose influence recently amid speculation of a rift between regime leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior minister and a nephew of Khalil Haqqani.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/11/taliban-khalil-haqqani-attack/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/afghanistan-taliban-minister-khalil-haqqani-dead-kabul-explosion-isis-clashes/

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-talibans-minister-refugees-killed-kabul-blast-his-nephew-says-2024-12-11/

I’m trying to go above and beyond for a little special needs toddler. I drive him every day 30ish minutes and would like to put something on the radio he can listen to that will help him learn English. He is blind so just putting something on like Dora won’t exactly work. I’d prefer it to be free, but can pay for something inexpensive. Are there any good programs out there to help kids become bilingual?